MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: I don't think most would be upset at 5-10 for much of the forum; it's the trends that are scaring people that we might end up with a minor event or even a whiff. My bar is 6" without rain washing it away. I'd be very happy with one storm like that as I was expecting a shutout winter. I think it should be pointed out that not a single piece of guidance supports a whiff. Again, the only piece of guidance that is south right now is the Euro and it bullseye's the mid-atlantic with a general 5-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Most in this forum should score nicely...... The takeaway from the Euro I see is definitely a bump east and more suppressed look. Overall its probably a win for people like me in Northern Neck of Virginia but for folks NW of DC i can certainly understand their concern. I do believe there will ultimately be a bump North in the guidance as we get under 48 hours. It almost always happens. Even happened with the event on Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It's all about trends at this point and PSU was the first to pick up on it yesterday. NO question things are trending more suppressed and east. Still time for it to come back but also still time for it to go away too. In a horrible winter let's take what we get and be happy. We might not get a HECS but a forum-wide 6-inch snow isn't too bad given the season to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I'm surprised by the all of the snow/freezing rain wording in the point/click NWS forecast out of Sterling. Im specifically referring to Sunday and talking the northern Shenandoah valley. They even have it in the forecast for Highland County.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Wow. I might not even get a warning level if the Euro is right. So much for the euro's consistency lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: the Euro is warning level snow for me. what am i supposed to be concerned about? Nothing.....You will do fine....I was more or less referring to folks Northwest of DC that have been in the bullseye for many runs see the bullseye push South. Also the Euro shows the system pulling away Monday afternoon, where some other models including the Euro had shown it hanging around another 12 hours.....Just minor stuff at this point. I hope everybody in the forum gets a 6+ event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: Nothing.....You will do fine....I was more or less referring to folks Northwest of DC that have been in the bullseye for many runs see the bullseye push South. Also the Euro shows the system pulling away Monday afternoon, where some other models including the Euro had shown it hanging around another 12 hours.....Just minor stuff at this point. I hope everybody in the forum gets a 6+ event Not only have we been in the bullseye for many runs NW of DC, but we've also had tons of breathing room of respectable 8+" snow. Euro has progressively narrowed that breathing room, lessened the bullseye, and moved it elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: Not only have we been in the bullseye for many runs NW of DC, but we've also had tons of breathing room of respectable 8+" snow. Euro has progressively narrowed that breathing room, lessened the bullseye, and moved it elsewhere. Typical rug pull. I always remind myself not to get excited over the models until 2 days from the event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This thread is on life support again. We neee a good 12z suite asap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 24 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I'm sure that is has been stated in the many pages back, but the big problem we have with the backside/stall scenario right now is that the trough is still a bit positively tilted at our longitude. Prior runs were showing it neutral. That results in the shove off the coast. This. I was looking at the model trend loop at 5H for the Euro and this has been a big shift in the last 4 runs. The positive tilt would cause the surface reflection to scoot further east before being captured. Last night, the ULL actually became a bit diffuse and then redeveloped just off to the southeast. It would pretty much put any major storm idea to bed. Most of the model suite does not do it as this extreme level and still manages to crush everyone without such a dramatic shift. The GFS thermal profile is absolutely laughable, and it was so for our Historic event in west TX the very end of last year. It was AWFUL. We refused to use it because of its thermals. Idk why it's as bad as it is. I'm keeping an eye on the RGEM/NAM/Nam Nest today for any possible hints at changes down the line. They may not be the best at a long term scale due to the nature of model chaos, but they can signify little trends that might be signals down the line. The one thing I would like to see today is a continuation of of the WAA piece aiming at the area directly and either maintaining its QPF field or becoming more juiced to get places closer to WSW criteria before any thought of the coastal. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: This thread is on life support again. We neee a good 12z suite asap Oh, well would you look at that, the NAM is running. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: I'm surprised by the all of the snow/freezing rain wording in the point/click NWS forecast out of Sterling. Im specifically referring to Sunday and talking the northern Shenandoah valley. They even have it in the forecast for Highland County.... The higher elevations in Highland County warm up quickly with WAA, often resulting in elevation based ice storms in these setups. I use to live a few miles west of there in Marlinton, WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 My 2 cents is anyone that was buying those 1-2 ft totals with this was a bit unrealistic with the set up and coastal transfers...Im still happy with the overall look but its all relative..If I get 3-6" up until about 03z Mon and then lull for a bit and then get another 2-4" during the day monday from the coastal transfer ill be happy with that...There just isnt enough southern stream energy and moisture for the huge totals and then combine the messy transfer and we dont get that heavy CCB on Monday. But im good wit an overal 6-9" or something like that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Does the NWS usually go conservative on snow events? That seems to be something I notice, but maybe I’m wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Rhino16 said: Does the NWS usually go conservative on snow events? That seems to be something I notice, but maybe I’m wrong... Usually yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GFS shows 8+ for most of the area and people are cliff diving. LOL. Good god. got mocked for it the other day... but some have got to get a grip over this whole “foot plus snowfall or nothing” mindset. It’s a little ridiculous. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Rhino16 said: Does the NWS usually go conservative on snow events? That seems to be something I notice, but maybe I’m wrong... Yes, normally. You can slowly adjust up and most of the public will not notice. Start high and it busts, you lose trust. Bottom line. 99% of the public has zero clue about weather, just like a large chunk don't understand many other aspects of normal services provided, they just follow them. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Yes, normally. You can slowly adjust up and most of the public will not notice. Start high and it busts, you lose trust. Bottom line. 99% of the public has zero clue about weather, just like a large chunk don't understand many other aspects of normal services provided, they just follow them. This is probably what most people here should do. Set low expectations and adjust up as we get closer. It's what I've done and it's why I don't find myself cliff diving. My bar for BWI has been 4-6" all week. Never bought into 10" from several days away. My bar is still 4-6". I'm happy as long as the south trend doesn't cause this thing to crush RIC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not sure if it was mentioned but 6z EPS increased spread vs previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Yes, normally. You can slowly adjust up and most of the public will not notice. Start high and it busts, you lose trust. Bottom line. 99% of this board has zero clue about weather, just like a large chunk don't understand many other aspects of normal services provided, they just follow them. Correct! 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z NAM at 33hrs with less confluence to the northeast. Slightly less on both 6z and 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, caviman2201 said: This is probably what most people here should do. Set low expectations and adjust up as we get closer. It's what I've done and it's why I don't find myself cliff diving. My bar for BWI has been 4-6" all week. Never bought into 10" from several days away. My bar is still 4-6". I'm happy as long as the south trend doesn't cause this thing to crush RIC My expectations were always low. Even through the 30" jackpots I got 2 days ago, through the 15", I wanted a warning level event. The Euro puts even that low expectation in threat for me NW of DC. I mean, I've already had to adjust my expectation down from "I want my first ever double digit snowfall" lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 12z NAM at 33hrs with less confluence to the northeast. Slightly less on both 6z and 12z. Just about getting into Nam’s sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 24 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Nothing.....You will do fine....I was more or less referring to folks Northwest of DC that have been in the bullseye for many runs see the bullseye push South. Also the Euro shows the system pulling away Monday afternoon, where some other models including the Euro had shown it hanging around another 12 hours.....Just minor stuff at this point. I hope everybody in the forum gets a 6+ event Stop concern trolling. Thanks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6z Icon is entire event 6z Rgem and Nam is not 6z Navgem was also a absolute beauty but it's the navgem and there's no snowmap. For comparison purposes for 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: My expectations were always low. Even through the 30" jackpots I got 2 days ago, through the 15", I wanted a warning level event. The Euro puts even that low expectation in threat for me NW of DC. I mean, I've already had to adjust my expectation down from "I want my first ever double digit snowfall" lol. Actually think Germantown over to Columbia is in a good spot for this one. Far enough north, but also far enough south. This storm has MocoHoCo band written all over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 12z NAM at 33hrs with less confluence to the northeast. Slightly less on both 6z and 12z. Let’s hope for a Nam’ing to pull everyone back in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Correct! Is it that low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM with even less through 39 and has ticked that way since 18z run yesterday. Euro the exact opposite....GFS is steadfast with regards to how far south that confluence will press. Hoping for some clarity by later today but I would think we would be seeing signs by now of a trend for stronger confluence in some of the modeling other than the euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 29 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: 6z Icon is entire event 6z Rgem and Nam is not 6z Navgem was also a absolute beauty but it's the navgem and there's no snowmap. For comparison purposes for 12z runs Yeah the navgem looks pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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