ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The concerns we had all along are rearing their ugly heads. Now that the pieces of energy are coming onshore, models are clueing in on them. Biggest change from yesterday is the 500 pattern. Trough tilt has gone more positive and that will push the best forcing out of our area. Transfer delayed, not much phasing. Precip in two phases and no CCB. That will not get it done in a Miller B. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 For those asking about snow climo for 1/31 and 2/1: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Most of the meaningful snow will happen on the front end thump if these trends continue. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just some food for thought, the forming of the coastal is still outside of the NAM's wheelhouse. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM is out of range AND still shows 6-10" for basically the whole region even without a crazy amount of backside precip and everyone on here is still freaking out... Baltimore City hasn't seen 5"+ in a really long time. I would personally be thrilled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: This is the first time that the NAM nest has run through the WAA period, and it is certainly drier than the 12km NAM. Still ~0.4" around DC, but that is actually somewhat of a jackpot zone. Yeah, don't overlook this. NAM nest was notably drier than the parent. PWs seemed quite a bit lower over the source region for the moisture - not sure if it's correct, but I don't recommend completely dismissing it either. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, umdterps29 said: NAM is out of range AND still shows 6-10" for basically the whole region even without a crazy amount of backside precip and everyone on here is still freaking out... Baltimore City hasn't seen 5"+ in a really long time. I would personally be thrilled. You’re talking too much sense for this board my friend. 6+ area wide is a really solid storm in a Nina. But hey, unless we get 1-2 feet, it’s a dud apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 There's no mystery here on where we are headed. Rewinding back to one of our great runs from earlier this week. You've got a neutral trough right at our longitude and you've got a backside vort that is going to help dig and stall even more. This is a great look for a big storm. Then you have the NAM this morning. Positively-tilted trough, not much help on the backside. This is just a run-of-the-mill storm look around here. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, high risk said: Yeah, don't overlook this. NAM nest was notably drier than the parent. PWs seemed quite a bit lower over the source region for the moisture - not sure if it's correct, but I don't recommend completely dismissing it either. Let's not overlook that the NAM nest is still not in it's wheelhouse range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Trends are the key here. It's clear where we're going with the coastal. Be overjoyed at the WAA thump and enjoy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Curious to see how the trough looks on the next euro run. If its even more positively tilted, we are definitely heading in the wrong direction for a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: There's no mystery here on where we are headed. Rewinding back to one of our great runs from earlier this week. You've got a neutral trough right at our longitude and you've got a backside vort that is going to help dig and stall even more. This is a great look for a big storm. Then you have the NAM this morning. Positively-tilted trough, not much help on the backside. This is just a run-of-the-mill storm look around here. This was the biggest takeaway mulling over guidance this morning. This is shifting from any mega storm potential for around here. A solid WSW is still on table for sure, but 1'+ is looking less likely with the trough looking like that. 7H was meh until too late too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Woof. Those two pictures tell the whole story. She gone. Next. We are still looking at our first meaningful snowfall in two years in a La Niña. I’ll take it... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Woof. Those two pictures tell the whole story. She gone. Next. if you really believe "next" then see you for the next threat and dont post more about this. you guys gotta stop with this crap. 12 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: This was the biggest takeaway mulling over guidance this morning. This is shifting from any mega storm potential for around here. A solid WSW is still on table for sure, but 1'+ is looking less likely with the trough looking like that. 7H was meh until too late too If you forced me to make a forecast right now, I'd put 2-4" for Sunday and another 1-2" with the 500 passage on Monday. That's still a nice 3-6" storm with maybe a bit of upside given some of the other guidance. Its still going to snow 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 From @jacksillin on Twitter. “So what "squishes" the low in the ECMWF's depiction? A shortwave trough moving through New England Sunday PM. The northerly flow behind this feature suppresses the burgeoning storm on Monday, letting it slip SE on Tuesday. The GEM has this feature *much* weaker and farther NE.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The 3K NAM is kinda ugly...hopefully it juices up that WAA stuff....it is at the end of the run so we'll see. ICON incoming already at 09z Sun..seems to be one of the earliest models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: If you forced me to make a forecast right now, I'd put 2-4" for Sunday and another 1-2" with the 500 passage on Monday. That's still a nice 3-6" storm with maybe a bit of upside given some of the other guidance. Its still going to snow I think that's a very solid forecast imo given the trends right now. I like 3-6" with max to 8" for areas south of I-70. This has the 270 corridor from Urbana on SE as the jackpot spot given the WAA trajectory. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, mappy said: if you really believe "next" then see you for the next threat and dont post more about this. you guys gotta stop with this crap. I meant "next model run", but ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Here's an idea...now hear me out. Why don't we wait for the other 80% of the 12z suite to run before we annoyingly declare "NEXT! she's gone, etc?" Might very well be the case, but why don't we wait for more than just 1 model in the 12z suite? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I saw a couple of things from Twitter mets this morning: It seems like there's a couple of features that are still moving around (although the trend isn't really our friend for the CCB snows), so maybe all is not said and done? But this storm does remind me of the Jan 2005 storm in DC--we were supposed to get a major winter storm, and got pretty decent WAA snows, but then the phase/capture happened too late and PHL north got a good storm but our WSW was downgraded to a blowing snow advisory. But as others have said, it's our first snow of any kind in years, so I'll take what we can get... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RGEM with a nice transfer and low location 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: I meant "next model run", but ok. I'm sure you did. This thread is falling apart as people lose their minds, we don't need a "next" analysis because one model run shows the coastal in an unfavorable position. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: I meant "next model run", but ok. I mean based on your previous bodies of work, you do seem overly negative a lot it's not hard to imagine you meant next storm. But I'll take you at your word that you meant next model. That's sound advice. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 If we can believe the RGEM (usual caveats of being out of range), it's a beautiful storm for the entire area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 23 minutes ago, mattie g said: I realize that this is a bit of a complicated situation, but it's truly amazing that model consensus has actually been harder to come by as we've gotten closer! Losing respect for the EPS. I can't believe the latest possible trends. Still hopeful, but jeez it's never easy. Thought the EPS was solid after yesterday's runs. But, the overnight and this AM.'s Euro is a bit disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z RGEM is a beatdown for the DC-BMore corridor. Wow. 12’’+. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: If we can believe the RGEM (usual caveats of being out of range), it's a beautiful storm for the entire area Appears to fringe northern areas of the forum with the deform band so far through 74hrs. Slightly south of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RGEM is nice, keeps the primary into Kentucky with a clean handoff. Would be a solid 6" - 12" for everyone. Nothing extreme from the coastal, but it would be a nice icing on the WAA snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RGEM visual 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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