MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 One thing I'd like to point out... The EURO is still not what it used to be. Sure it's schooled the GFS over the last week in the long range. But it's missed on it's share of storms/details, even in the short range, over the last couple of years. The GFS is terrible outside of 120 hrs but its scores increase as we get closer to game time. I'd be taking a blend of everything at this point. EURO is by far the furthest south solution. No other model is showing what the euro is showing. Also, even PSU has pointed out that even with a suppressed, more south solution, there is usually a bump north in the last 24-48hrs. hmm...if you are using that reasoning, even with a Euro solution, PSU would still get his deform.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: If this solution had more support I might be worried especially for people to the north of Baltimore. But to me, this EURO solution is just making pretty clear that this is looking more and morel like a mid-atlantic special. That's all I take from this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I am probably speaking from ignorance, but maybe if the Euro is going to make a more significant adjustment, it happens at 12z/0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 If you think the disagreement for our sub forum is bad, look at the Poconos area lol. 20-25” difference between the euro and other guidance like the para. RGEM looks lovely, I’m hugging. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I think any notions of a 1’+ snow are fantasy at this point. 3-6” would be my upper limit of hope right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Been my experience though that the euro doesn’t do well with WAA into cad. Just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Comparing the QPF map and the Kuchera snowfall map above, Euro has 15:1 ratios for HGR, MRB and OKV. (Didn't look at any other sites.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Been my experience though that the euro doesn’t do well with WAA into cad. Just my opinion I thought the Euro did fine with the WAA. It seems like it is juicing that part up. It is just losing the second part of the storm, which is the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I think @CAPE is correct. The next 12 hours of model runs is gonna pretty much nail this down, one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I know we're close enough that ensembles don't carry as much weight and tend to follow the op... I'd still like to see if there is any spread within the Euro ens or if they are all pretty much in agreement with the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 hours ago, psuhoffman said: It seems to me one of the best places to be for this one is out towards SW VA. All guidance seems to give that are a no nonsense thump of 7-12" followed by some light fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Mon 10 am Didn’t somebody bring up yesterday the idea of a dual low off the coast and the model tends to focus on the one closest to heavy convection? This picture shows just that I think. Maybe a blip? Or maybe a continuance of that model’s trend. To me it looks looks like the coastal gets going way way too late and it’s too far east to help us much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: It seems to me one of the best places to be for this one is out towards SW VA. All guidance seems to give that are a no nonsense thump of 7-12" followed by some light fluff No doubt. Looks like that area gets a really nice thump from WAA and doesn't really have to worry as much about getting any coastal action to easily hit warning level criteria and then some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The 6Z GFS seems to give widespread 9" to 14 inches just west of DC-BALTO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, winterymix said: The 6Z GFS seems to give widespread 9" to 14 inches just west of DC-BALTO. That GFS is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, winterymix said: The 6Z GFS seems to give widespread 9" to 14 inches just west of DC-BALTO. Yep and euro is now one of the worst outcomes. From Best to worst. Frustrating considering its still the most accurate model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I thought the Euro did fine with the WAA. It seems like it is juicing that part up. It is just losing the second part of the storm, which is the main show. I think it’s usually too dry with WAA. Again just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think it’s usually too dry with WAA. Again just my opinion That’s awesome, cause from the way I’m looking at it, the 6z euro shows a general 4-6 from a bit south of I-70 on south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, notvirga! said: Yep and euro is now one of the worst outcomes. From Best to worst. Frustrating considering its still the most accurate model. And the Euro's "worst" solution is still a solid 5-10" for much of the forum. It's kind of comical the weenie reactions last night and this morning. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, MD Snow said: And the Euro's "worst" solution is still a solid 5-10" for much of the forum. It's kind of comical the weenie reactions last night and this morning. Exactly. It’s a huge win for most in the forum. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Anyone have a GfS snowman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 OK - The Euro is King for recognition of trends and I think we have to give it a lot of stock.. more than the other models. It has the resolution we need and is pretty good at representing trends. The trend is a bleed south. We cannot discount it, despite the other models. My thinking (maybe it is weenie hope) is that the precip shield is a bit more narrow than it will end up being. If we are going to recover with it getting back to better locations, it needs to start today. Some things I think I am recapping here: This is not as easy of a set up as it appeared at one time (Not that it was ever easy! But there were some sweet cold smoke runs.. they are not there anymore) It is so hard to snow cleanly. There is luck always... sometimes we need more luck than others The trend this year is stringing out these systems as they approach and weakening, and suppression. The pattern kind of supporting some of the obvious - PNA issues, west coast is not great, speed of the system At some point this will stop bleeding south and I do think a small bump north (small) and increase in precip seems possible. I am thinking of how things ended up in NC yesterday I am certain there will be some serious failures and people missing big time in this set up. It is not the uniform look that we want We are in the game, and it is not over. I have on snow weenie glasses and keep thinking we will see an expansion of heavier snow to the north (not super north) into favored spots once this stops figuring out the placement of the CCB. Maybe I am being Mr Obvious.. Hedge low.. and hope we get a lot more! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: The east parade continues. And if you are New England you can’t be feeling too good about this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I don't think most would be upset at 5-10 for much of the forum; it's the trends that are scaring people that we might end up with a minor event or even a whiff. My bar is 6" without rain washing it away. I'd be very happy with one storm like that as I was expecting a shutout winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: You can see how some of these still get tugged west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: The east parade continues. And if you are New England you can’t be feeling too good about this one. It supports the op, which has to be the case at this range, but yeah comparing the 2 runs, a little more clustering on the eastern edge at 6z. Not that much though. Could still see the next op run make a shift NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Next panel. The 4 or 5 that were tucked a bit inland at 0z are now right along the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I'm sure that is has been stated in the many pages back, but the big problem we have with the backside/stall scenario right now is that the trough is still a bit positively tilted at our longitude. Prior runs were showing it neutral. That results in the shove off the coast. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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