jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GFS shows 8+ for most of the area and people are cliff diving. LOL. Good god. got mocked for it the other day... but some have got to get a grip over this whole “foot plus snowfall or nothing” mindset. It’s a little ridiculous. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Rhino16 said: Does the NWS usually go conservative on snow events? That seems to be something I notice, but maybe I’m wrong... Yes, normally. You can slowly adjust up and most of the public will not notice. Start high and it busts, you lose trust. Bottom line. 99% of the public has zero clue about weather, just like a large chunk don't understand many other aspects of normal services provided, they just follow them. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Yes, normally. You can slowly adjust up and most of the public will not notice. Start high and it busts, you lose trust. Bottom line. 99% of the public has zero clue about weather, just like a large chunk don't understand many other aspects of normal services provided, they just follow them. This is probably what most people here should do. Set low expectations and adjust up as we get closer. It's what I've done and it's why I don't find myself cliff diving. My bar for BWI has been 4-6" all week. Never bought into 10" from several days away. My bar is still 4-6". I'm happy as long as the south trend doesn't cause this thing to crush RIC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not sure if it was mentioned but 6z EPS increased spread vs previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Yes, normally. You can slowly adjust up and most of the public will not notice. Start high and it busts, you lose trust. Bottom line. 99% of this board has zero clue about weather, just like a large chunk don't understand many other aspects of normal services provided, they just follow them. Correct! 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z NAM at 33hrs with less confluence to the northeast. Slightly less on both 6z and 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, caviman2201 said: This is probably what most people here should do. Set low expectations and adjust up as we get closer. It's what I've done and it's why I don't find myself cliff diving. My bar for BWI has been 4-6" all week. Never bought into 10" from several days away. My bar is still 4-6". I'm happy as long as the south trend doesn't cause this thing to crush RIC My expectations were always low. Even through the 30" jackpots I got 2 days ago, through the 15", I wanted a warning level event. The Euro puts even that low expectation in threat for me NW of DC. I mean, I've already had to adjust my expectation down from "I want my first ever double digit snowfall" lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 12z NAM at 33hrs with less confluence to the northeast. Slightly less on both 6z and 12z. Just about getting into Nam’s sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 24 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Nothing.....You will do fine....I was more or less referring to folks Northwest of DC that have been in the bullseye for many runs see the bullseye push South. Also the Euro shows the system pulling away Monday afternoon, where some other models including the Euro had shown it hanging around another 12 hours.....Just minor stuff at this point. I hope everybody in the forum gets a 6+ event Stop concern trolling. Thanks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6z Icon is entire event 6z Rgem and Nam is not 6z Navgem was also a absolute beauty but it's the navgem and there's no snowmap. For comparison purposes for 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: My expectations were always low. Even through the 30" jackpots I got 2 days ago, through the 15", I wanted a warning level event. The Euro puts even that low expectation in threat for me NW of DC. I mean, I've already had to adjust my expectation down from "I want my first ever double digit snowfall" lol. Actually think Germantown over to Columbia is in a good spot for this one. Far enough north, but also far enough south. This storm has MocoHoCo band written all over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 12z NAM at 33hrs with less confluence to the northeast. Slightly less on both 6z and 12z. Let’s hope for a Nam’ing to pull everyone back in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Correct! Is it that low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM with even less through 39 and has ticked that way since 18z run yesterday. Euro the exact opposite....GFS is steadfast with regards to how far south that confluence will press. Hoping for some clarity by later today but I would think we would be seeing signs by now of a trend for stronger confluence in some of the modeling other than the euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 29 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: 6z Icon is entire event 6z Rgem and Nam is not 6z Navgem was also a absolute beauty but it's the navgem and there's no snowmap. For comparison purposes for 12z runs Yeah the navgem looks pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM 12km is just fine on the front side. No p-type concerns in DC until 00z. At that point, ~0.6" precip has fallen. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Northern friends will like the tick north on the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Compared to the previous NAM run, the Low is in a better spot for the coastal handoff (it would seem) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not really relevant to totals, but the NAM and especially the NAM nest like the idea of a lead band around sunrise Sunday followed by a break before the primary swath of warm advection snow arrives. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Freezing line stays just east of 95 before crashing once the coastal takes over at 12z Monday. 850s are still issue however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This is the first time that the NAM nest has run through the WAA period, and it is certainly drier than the 12km NAM. Still ~0.4" around DC, but that is actually somewhat of a jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Another model run with a positively-tilted trough. Looks like the CCB is up in Long Island and NJ. We get snow showers on the backside from the 500 low passage, but it is not really the the beatdown that we are looking for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM looks great if you live in NYC or NE. Model mayhem with 72 hours to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The 7H low really doesn't get going until its to the southeast of the area. It's fairly mature into the OH Valley, but then becomes discombobulated as it tries to pivot under the area. It doesn't get its act together until late, so the area just gets some passing snow showers. It's a much better run for NYC/LI as the low CCB gets cranking around CNJ and then moves north. It was close, but no cigar for the area. Still has a solid front end piece that will whiten the area and it's still colder than any GFS run in terms of thermals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I realize that this is a bit of a complicated situation, but it's truly amazing that model consensus has actually been harder to come by as we've gotten closer! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM is cool for WAA, but I hope it’s not starting a trend of missing the backside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, mattie g said: I realize that this is a bit of a complicated situation, but it's truly amazing that model consensus has actually been harder to come by as we've gotten closer! They always are with Miller B events. You essentially hand off the surface, mid and upper levels from one storm to another. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM through 60 has a pretty good thump. Not going to worry about what it does after that since it’s way out of its range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Wouldn’t worry about what NAM shows after 60. It’s not in range. NAM is in range to analyze the WAA however, which looks pretty solid. ninja’d by Jaydreb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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