BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, winterymix said: The 6Z GFS seems to give widespread 9" to 14 inches just west of DC-BALTO. That GFS is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, winterymix said: The 6Z GFS seems to give widespread 9" to 14 inches just west of DC-BALTO. Yep and euro is now one of the worst outcomes. From Best to worst. Frustrating considering its still the most accurate model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I thought the Euro did fine with the WAA. It seems like it is juicing that part up. It is just losing the second part of the storm, which is the main show. I think it’s usually too dry with WAA. Again just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think it’s usually too dry with WAA. Again just my opinion That’s awesome, cause from the way I’m looking at it, the 6z euro shows a general 4-6 from a bit south of I-70 on south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, notvirga! said: Yep and euro is now one of the worst outcomes. From Best to worst. Frustrating considering its still the most accurate model. And the Euro's "worst" solution is still a solid 5-10" for much of the forum. It's kind of comical the weenie reactions last night and this morning. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, MD Snow said: And the Euro's "worst" solution is still a solid 5-10" for much of the forum. It's kind of comical the weenie reactions last night and this morning. Exactly. It’s a huge win for most in the forum. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Anyone have a GfS snowman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 OK - The Euro is King for recognition of trends and I think we have to give it a lot of stock.. more than the other models. It has the resolution we need and is pretty good at representing trends. The trend is a bleed south. We cannot discount it, despite the other models. My thinking (maybe it is weenie hope) is that the precip shield is a bit more narrow than it will end up being. If we are going to recover with it getting back to better locations, it needs to start today. Some things I think I am recapping here: This is not as easy of a set up as it appeared at one time (Not that it was ever easy! But there were some sweet cold smoke runs.. they are not there anymore) It is so hard to snow cleanly. There is luck always... sometimes we need more luck than others The trend this year is stringing out these systems as they approach and weakening, and suppression. The pattern kind of supporting some of the obvious - PNA issues, west coast is not great, speed of the system At some point this will stop bleeding south and I do think a small bump north (small) and increase in precip seems possible. I am thinking of how things ended up in NC yesterday I am certain there will be some serious failures and people missing big time in this set up. It is not the uniform look that we want We are in the game, and it is not over. I have on snow weenie glasses and keep thinking we will see an expansion of heavier snow to the north (not super north) into favored spots once this stops figuring out the placement of the CCB. Maybe I am being Mr Obvious.. Hedge low.. and hope we get a lot more! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: The east parade continues. And if you are New England you can’t be feeling too good about this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I don't think most would be upset at 5-10 for much of the forum; it's the trends that are scaring people that we might end up with a minor event or even a whiff. My bar is 6" without rain washing it away. I'd be very happy with one storm like that as I was expecting a shutout winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: You can see how some of these still get tugged west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: The east parade continues. And if you are New England you can’t be feeling too good about this one. It supports the op, which has to be the case at this range, but yeah comparing the 2 runs, a little more clustering on the eastern edge at 6z. Not that much though. Could still see the next op run make a shift NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Next panel. The 4 or 5 that were tucked a bit inland at 0z are now right along the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I'm sure that is has been stated in the many pages back, but the big problem we have with the backside/stall scenario right now is that the trough is still a bit positively tilted at our longitude. Prior runs were showing it neutral. That results in the shove off the coast. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: I don't think most would be upset at 5-10 for much of the forum; it's the trends that are scaring people that we might end up with a minor event or even a whiff. My bar is 6" without rain washing it away. I'd be very happy with one storm like that as I was expecting a shutout winter. I think it should be pointed out that not a single piece of guidance supports a whiff. Again, the only piece of guidance that is south right now is the Euro and it bullseye's the mid-atlantic with a general 5-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Most in this forum should score nicely...... The takeaway from the Euro I see is definitely a bump east and more suppressed look. Overall its probably a win for people like me in Northern Neck of Virginia but for folks NW of DC i can certainly understand their concern. I do believe there will ultimately be a bump North in the guidance as we get under 48 hours. It almost always happens. Even happened with the event on Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It's all about trends at this point and PSU was the first to pick up on it yesterday. NO question things are trending more suppressed and east. Still time for it to come back but also still time for it to go away too. In a horrible winter let's take what we get and be happy. We might not get a HECS but a forum-wide 6-inch snow isn't too bad given the season to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I'm surprised by the all of the snow/freezing rain wording in the point/click NWS forecast out of Sterling. Im specifically referring to Sunday and talking the northern Shenandoah valley. They even have it in the forecast for Highland County.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Wow. I might not even get a warning level if the Euro is right. So much for the euro's consistency lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: the Euro is warning level snow for me. what am i supposed to be concerned about? Nothing.....You will do fine....I was more or less referring to folks Northwest of DC that have been in the bullseye for many runs see the bullseye push South. Also the Euro shows the system pulling away Monday afternoon, where some other models including the Euro had shown it hanging around another 12 hours.....Just minor stuff at this point. I hope everybody in the forum gets a 6+ event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: Nothing.....You will do fine....I was more or less referring to folks Northwest of DC that have been in the bullseye for many runs see the bullseye push South. Also the Euro shows the system pulling away Monday afternoon, where some other models including the Euro had shown it hanging around another 12 hours.....Just minor stuff at this point. I hope everybody in the forum gets a 6+ event Not only have we been in the bullseye for many runs NW of DC, but we've also had tons of breathing room of respectable 8+" snow. Euro has progressively narrowed that breathing room, lessened the bullseye, and moved it elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: Not only have we been in the bullseye for many runs NW of DC, but we've also had tons of breathing room of respectable 8+" snow. Euro has progressively narrowed that breathing room, lessened the bullseye, and moved it elsewhere. Typical rug pull. I always remind myself not to get excited over the models until 2 days from the event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This thread is on life support again. We neee a good 12z suite asap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 24 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I'm sure that is has been stated in the many pages back, but the big problem we have with the backside/stall scenario right now is that the trough is still a bit positively tilted at our longitude. Prior runs were showing it neutral. That results in the shove off the coast. This. I was looking at the model trend loop at 5H for the Euro and this has been a big shift in the last 4 runs. The positive tilt would cause the surface reflection to scoot further east before being captured. Last night, the ULL actually became a bit diffuse and then redeveloped just off to the southeast. It would pretty much put any major storm idea to bed. Most of the model suite does not do it as this extreme level and still manages to crush everyone without such a dramatic shift. The GFS thermal profile is absolutely laughable, and it was so for our Historic event in west TX the very end of last year. It was AWFUL. We refused to use it because of its thermals. Idk why it's as bad as it is. I'm keeping an eye on the RGEM/NAM/Nam Nest today for any possible hints at changes down the line. They may not be the best at a long term scale due to the nature of model chaos, but they can signify little trends that might be signals down the line. The one thing I would like to see today is a continuation of of the WAA piece aiming at the area directly and either maintaining its QPF field or becoming more juiced to get places closer to WSW criteria before any thought of the coastal. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: This thread is on life support again. We neee a good 12z suite asap Oh, well would you look at that, the NAM is running. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: I'm surprised by the all of the snow/freezing rain wording in the point/click NWS forecast out of Sterling. Im specifically referring to Sunday and talking the northern Shenandoah valley. They even have it in the forecast for Highland County.... The higher elevations in Highland County warm up quickly with WAA, often resulting in elevation based ice storms in these setups. I use to live a few miles west of there in Marlinton, WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 My 2 cents is anyone that was buying those 1-2 ft totals with this was a bit unrealistic with the set up and coastal transfers...Im still happy with the overall look but its all relative..If I get 3-6" up until about 03z Mon and then lull for a bit and then get another 2-4" during the day monday from the coastal transfer ill be happy with that...There just isnt enough southern stream energy and moisture for the huge totals and then combine the messy transfer and we dont get that heavy CCB on Monday. But im good wit an overal 6-9" or something like that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Does the NWS usually go conservative on snow events? That seems to be something I notice, but maybe I’m wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Rhino16 said: Does the NWS usually go conservative on snow events? That seems to be something I notice, but maybe I’m wrong... Usually yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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