jaydreb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro is crazy. Hooks around NYC and then comes up and destroys Mass/Boston (shocked). Everyone mocks the GFS, but the Euro took places from like 18” to nothing in one run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, SnowDreamer said: I think overall it's a good sign that people have been sweating on both sides of the coin recently. There was concern by many when Euro was spitting out those huge maxes in PA with lots less in NoVA. Still have a good 36 hours for things to shift before we really get into the short range. Man I hope the Euro shifts right. It being right about yesterday when the rest of guidance wasn't has me nervous, dude...especially with the suppressive theme of the whole month. But hopefully tomorrow brings a better shift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Has the euro been consistent? Mind you here is the euro from just a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Im serious, especially in light that other guidance has it a bit more north. I mean, we'll know in about 12 hours how real this is Even the Navgem looks like THIS... Maybe it was just one hiccup but the trend is VERY disturbing. And not just for me. Like I said after the last run...I am one more adjustment of the exact same maginitued of the last 4 runs from being on the outside looking in....well that is now Baltimore, Columbia, Leesburg...one more after that and its DC... are we sure the south trend is over? That wave over New England squashing the flow in front keeps trending south every run! So part of me says....ok EVERYTHING else is north even the typically super suppressed NAVGEM, it was just a bad run. But on the other hand...this...is hard to ignore 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Has the euro been consistent? Mind you here is the euro from just a couple days ago. no..true it was north then south then north and now south again...but we are getting closer now...its one thing to be jumpy at 150 hours...but this is now 5 consecutive runs it has trended south. The bigger issue is it aligns with what I always thought was the bigger threat...that the flow to the northeast would suppress. I never for a second bought or worried at all about the runs that were north. The pattern doesn't fit that. But I am open to being convinced I am just being paranoid and this euro run was garbage and it will correct back north. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Return of the Jebi Obs threads can be so great on these drawn out ones IF we can get part 2 to help us but these transfers screw DC some and Northeast MD gets a foot . Overrunning looks almost assured . You guys are overdue to get totally shellacked by snow. Its gonna happen. Get those shovels all ready. You're gonna need 'em! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 No the Euro hasn't been super consistent on the snow totals. But tbh I think the most consistent clown maps have come from the para. It certainly looks more consistent than the euro on these maps, but obviously the clown maps aren't the defining characteristic of consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This seems like a good set of model signals with GFS very good, GEM perhaps a bit warmer solution than ideal, ECM now trending a bit suppressed, my guess is that a very large storm is likely and this divergence represents those developing signals coming into the mix -- in fact this could turn out to be a monster storm with the long interval of coastal development and signs that the center wants to set up very close to the Delaware coast. My hunch is we're looking at 20-30 inch amounts with this one. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: This seems like a good set of model signals with GFS very good, GEM perhaps a bit warmer solution than ideal, ECM now trending a bit suppressed, my guess is that a very large storm is likely and this divergence represents those developing signals coming into the mix -- in fact this could turn out to be a monster storm with the long interval of coastal development and signs that the center wants to set up very close to the Delaware coast. My hunch is we're looking at 20-30 inch amounts with this one. Good sir I hope your hunch is correct! Euro has some of us worried about a southern miss/fringe, lol But do you see that as correcting itself as we get closer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Good sir I hope your hunch is correct! Euro has some of us worried about a southern miss/fringe, lol But what do you see that as correcting itself as we get closer? I really thought yesterday would be the locked and loaded runs. We are like 36 hours from the first watches being hoisted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I really thought yesterday would be the locked and loaded runs. We are like 36 hours from the first watches being hoisted... Yeah seriously...this is ridiculous. 12z tomorrow might be big...Can you imagine? If the euro were to tick the wrong way tomorrow...I'd imagine that throws the entire forecast off, right? And what would happen with the transfer? Unless it's the nightmare scenario of it not happening at all and the primary (or whichever it is) escaping. Let's hope we see a better trend tomorrow, because I'm telling ya...we're so close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah seriously...this is ridiculous. 12z tomorrow might be big...Can you imagine? If the euro were to tick the wrong way tomorrow...I'd imagine that throws the entire forecast off, right? And what would happen with the transfer? Unless it's the nightmare scenario of it not happening at all and the primary (or whichever it is) escaping. Let's hope we see a better trend tomorrow, because I'm telling ya...we're so close! This has the makings of an epic nowcasting event. Hate to say the uncertainty makes it a little more fun vice a clean quick moving storm that’s predictable. Did you see the EPS for this latest 0z run? I didn’t see it posted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I really thought yesterday would be the locked and loaded runs. We are like 36 hours from the first watches being hoisted... Huh? They will be hoisted in this afternoon's package 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Here was the 00z GEPS mean 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 00z EPS mean 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 WB 6Z NAM thru 1pm Mon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 WB 6Z ICON 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6z GFS still hammers the usual spots with the deform band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Current thoughts from Mount Holly- There are still many differences among the models in terms of timing and placement of each low. As a result, there are differences in terms of how far north and west bands of precip will spread, and how far to the north and west the rain/snow line will spread as well. As a result, this remains a low confidence forecast, and much can change. The farther north the storm will track, the more snow will fall across interior portions of the forecast area, and the more rain will fall across the southern portions. However, if the low takes more of a southern track, then less snow will fall across the interior, and there will be less of a chance for precip to change to rain, resulting in more snow for the southern half of the forecast area. Will also have to watch for banding of precip around the center of the offshore low, as heavier bands area possible, and it remains to be seen how far west those bands will spread and where they will set up. Initially, it will be quite cold and dry on Sunday, and it will take some time for the surface moisture to overcome the dry air and for precip to reach the ground. However, temps will remain cold enough for precip to fall as all snow until late Sunday afternoon, when some of the warmer air will lift into southern Delmarva and into Cape May, New Jersey. A little bit of mixing will develop late Sunday and into Sunday night. Generally expecting less than an inch of snow for most of the region Sunday, with 1-2 inches for western portions of the Delaware Valley and Delmarva. Going through Sunday night, as low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast lifts to the north, precip increases in intensity through the overnight hours, and questions remain as to how far north the rain/snow line will spread. Based on the latest trends, think the warmer air will hold off until Monday morning, and looking at a good 2-4 inches of snow from around Trenton or so south and west into the northern half of Delmarva and into southern New Jersey. The highest banding possible in the Atlantic City area. he two lows merge off the New Jersey coast on Monday, and bands of moderate to locally heavy precip will continue to impact most of the region. Looks like enough warm air will be able to spread through southern Delmarva and southern New Jersey, and the bands of snow will mainly impacts areas north of Philadelphia, but south of the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z GFS still hammers the usual spots with the defrorm band. Stubborn beast...I'm wondering if the euro is overdoing the cold causing it to push south. Just my uneducated guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 WB 6Z GFS 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Stubborn beast...I'm wondering if the euro is overdoing the cold causing it to push south. Just my uneducated guess Whatever the reason, I hope it is correct. Pretty safe bet is something in between. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 hours ago, jaydreb said: Euro is crazy. Hooks around NYC and then comes up and destroys Mass/Boston (shocked). Everyone mocks the GFS, but the Euro took places from like 18” to nothing in one run. Yeah it does to NYC what Boxing Day did to DC/Balt. Would serve 'em right. The Euro has a bit of a January 25-6 1987 vibe to it (second of the back-to-back snowstorms of that January), at least as far as the accumulation pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 less banter more relevant discussion please 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Interesting that my local forecast for Sunday is now freezing rain and sleet with a chance of snow. Very interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NWS forecast runs through 7:00 p.m. Monday now: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Interesting that my local forecast for Sunday is now freezing rain and sleet with a chance of snow. Very interesting. Sounds like a GFS/CMC blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sounds like a GFS/CMC blend. Weird to me because I don’t lose 850’s on any model. Must be warm above that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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