stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Damn...no changeover yet vs 12z where we were mixing by now at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 If you're east of the fall line, this is the storm you want... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I think Euro's frozen. Running 2-3" higher than the last run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Synoptically we should have heavy snow at 78hrs That massive convective blob offshore might be causing some subsidence in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Jumped east at 78 and then tucked at 84 and said lets lay the beatdown on you. We are gonna get destroyed ya'll. Period. OK. I should have kept my mouth shut. I hope this is the Euro run that loses it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Woah It kind of jets off though for the 2nd wave, like.. in MoCo I've completely lost the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Suppression city... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Lol this looks like the run 3 days from the 2016 blizzard that gave only gave Hagerstown 1" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This could be a really big run for metros. SLP not going anywhere at all from 80-90. Eta: gets pushed straight East after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Suppression city... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GREAT run for those who like the front end thump. But that back end is completely gone for a lot of us. We'll be relying on the front end for all our totals on the Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, SnowDreamer said: This could be a really big run for metros. SLP not going anywhere at all from 80-90. It's the ideal run for close in DC metro....a foot all snow. It's probably too suppressed and if we're in a deform band for 6-10 hours, I'm not worried about the lack of QPF 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: GREAT run for those who like the front end thump. But that back end is completely gone for a lot of us. We'll be relying on the front end for all our totals on the Euro. Better front end can't hurt (unless it has downstream issues that I can't comprehend) but the back end isn't gone for most of us, I don't think. I'd classify all this as back-end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: It's the ideal run for close in DC metro....a foot all snow. It's probably too suppressed and if we're in a deform band for 6-10 hours, I'm not worried about the lack of QPF I think it's overdone on the suppression too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: It's the ideal run for close in DC metro....a foot all snow. It's probably too suppressed and if we're in a deform band for 6-10 hours, I'm not worried about the lack of QPF You might be better off in DC for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The rest of the 0z guidance looked so good then the euro ruins my night. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: You might be better off in DC for this one. yes...If I was in DC for this storm, this is the solution I'd want....But I'm not, so I don't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Better front end can't hurt (unless it has downstream issues that I can't comprehend) but the back end isn't gone for most of us, I don't think. I'd classify all this as back-end. Hmmm. It looked worse than it was then. It seemed like a lot less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: You sayin' that in slightly sarcastic weenieism or do you actually have a reason? Im serious, especially in light that other guidance has it a bit more north. I mean, we'll know in about 12 hours how real this is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: The rest of the 0z guidance looked so good then the euro ruins my night. Lol Yeah, sorry about that. I hope it’s a blip and EPS shows a wider hit for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: The rest of the 0z guidance looked so good then the euro ruins my night. Lol But seriously though...how far south is this gonna go?? I mean one or two more ticks south and I'm even fringed, smh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I kind of want the GFS to be right now. It's been better for MBY a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said: Hmmm. It looked worse than it was then. It seemed like a lot less. It's mostly pretty light, hopefully high ratio. People have said the deform/back-end/CCB/whatever the term is will probably juice up in the short-term, but we're talking 10-15" in a period of 48+ hours. Do the math, and that's not crazy rates or anything. WAA might be the heaviest snow of the storm as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I think consensus is that we all take the Ukie I'm still just thrilled at the likelihood of warning criteria tbh.. Which I would have to think is very very high atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Im serious, especially in light that other guidance has it a bit more north. I mean, we'll know in about 12 hours how real this is I guess I'm nervous because the euro was the only one that got yesterday's suppressed storm track right. Wondering if we start seeing the other models get more and more suppressed...maybe that's my fears talking, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Crazy west to east storm. Double digits from Winchester to Easton. I will take it. The only model that screws me is the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This all comes down to how deep the eastern armpit of the omega block is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: But seriously though...how far south is this gonna go?? I mean one or two more ticks south and I'm even fringed, smh The rest of the guidance is comfortably more north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I guess I'm nervous because the euro was the only one that got yesterday's suppressed storm track right. Wondering if we start seeing the other models get more and more suppressed...maybe that's my fears talking, lol I think overall it's a good sign that people have been sweating on both sides of the coin recently. There was concern by many when Euro was spitting out those huge maxes in PA with lots less in NoVA. Still have a good 36 hours for things to shift before we really get into the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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