Weather Will Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 WB 6Z NAM thru 1pm Mon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 WB 6Z ICON 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6z GFS still hammers the usual spots with the deform band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Current thoughts from Mount Holly- There are still many differences among the models in terms of timing and placement of each low. As a result, there are differences in terms of how far north and west bands of precip will spread, and how far to the north and west the rain/snow line will spread as well. As a result, this remains a low confidence forecast, and much can change. The farther north the storm will track, the more snow will fall across interior portions of the forecast area, and the more rain will fall across the southern portions. However, if the low takes more of a southern track, then less snow will fall across the interior, and there will be less of a chance for precip to change to rain, resulting in more snow for the southern half of the forecast area. Will also have to watch for banding of precip around the center of the offshore low, as heavier bands area possible, and it remains to be seen how far west those bands will spread and where they will set up. Initially, it will be quite cold and dry on Sunday, and it will take some time for the surface moisture to overcome the dry air and for precip to reach the ground. However, temps will remain cold enough for precip to fall as all snow until late Sunday afternoon, when some of the warmer air will lift into southern Delmarva and into Cape May, New Jersey. A little bit of mixing will develop late Sunday and into Sunday night. Generally expecting less than an inch of snow for most of the region Sunday, with 1-2 inches for western portions of the Delaware Valley and Delmarva. Going through Sunday night, as low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast lifts to the north, precip increases in intensity through the overnight hours, and questions remain as to how far north the rain/snow line will spread. Based on the latest trends, think the warmer air will hold off until Monday morning, and looking at a good 2-4 inches of snow from around Trenton or so south and west into the northern half of Delmarva and into southern New Jersey. The highest banding possible in the Atlantic City area. he two lows merge off the New Jersey coast on Monday, and bands of moderate to locally heavy precip will continue to impact most of the region. Looks like enough warm air will be able to spread through southern Delmarva and southern New Jersey, and the bands of snow will mainly impacts areas north of Philadelphia, but south of the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z GFS still hammers the usual spots with the defrorm band. Stubborn beast...I'm wondering if the euro is overdoing the cold causing it to push south. Just my uneducated guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 WB 6Z GFS 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Stubborn beast...I'm wondering if the euro is overdoing the cold causing it to push south. Just my uneducated guess Whatever the reason, I hope it is correct. Pretty safe bet is something in between. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 hours ago, jaydreb said: Euro is crazy. Hooks around NYC and then comes up and destroys Mass/Boston (shocked). Everyone mocks the GFS, but the Euro took places from like 18” to nothing in one run. Yeah it does to NYC what Boxing Day did to DC/Balt. Would serve 'em right. The Euro has a bit of a January 25-6 1987 vibe to it (second of the back-to-back snowstorms of that January), at least as far as the accumulation pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 less banter more relevant discussion please 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Interesting that my local forecast for Sunday is now freezing rain and sleet with a chance of snow. Very interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NWS forecast runs through 7:00 p.m. Monday now: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Interesting that my local forecast for Sunday is now freezing rain and sleet with a chance of snow. Very interesting. Sounds like a GFS/CMC blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sounds like a GFS/CMC blend. Weird to me because I don’t lose 850’s on any model. Must be warm above that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sounds like a GFS/CMC blend. I have freezing rain/sleet in mine too, Sunday night into Monday. Wonder if its because thats during the lull period between WAA and the coastal taking over. Its been mentioned several times that precip will be light, so maybe a sneaky warm layer gets in there before precip picks up in intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Weird to me because I don’t lose 850’s on any model. Must be warm above that. looking at soundings IMBY for the GFS in pivotal -- 03z Monday a little warm nose pops up around 900 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, mappy said: I have freezing rain/sleet in mine too, Sunday night into Monday. Wonder if its because thats during the lull period between WAA and the coastal taking over. Its been mentioned several times that precip will be light, so maybe a sneaky warm layer gets in there before precip picks up in intensity. Yes that is the period where it would be most likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Weird to me because I don’t lose 850’s on any model. Must be warm above that. Heres one for your backyard, yeah you got a sneaky layer above 850 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Interesting that my local forecast for Sunday is now freezing rain and sleet with a chance of snow. Very interesting. I'm thinking they are no longer tossing the GFS idea...I seriously think the Euro is too cold and is pushing too far South. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: I'm thinking they are no longer tossing the GFS idea...I seriously think the Euro is too cold and is pushing too far South. What happened to the Euro run last night?? Now in my dealings with the Euro doesn't it have a so called blind spot for storms in the far Southwest of the United States where the Euro either weakens the storm down too much or holds energy back in the southwest? Our storm basically is about to crash into Southern California as we speak just to the west of LA so I am wondering if the Euro run was just a blip and the Euro having one of its bias moments out there just west of California and diving SSE into Southern Cali before rounding the bottom of the trough out there and moving east. Thoughts?? https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/satellite-wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Yes that is the period where it would be most likely. reminds me of the Feb 2014 storm, there was a lull between the two areas of precip that places had sleet, myself included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm thinking they are no longer tossing the GFS idea...I seriously think the Euro is too cold and is pushing too far South. I agree. I wish it were the correct outcome, but I don't believe it will be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I wish 6z RGEM went out past 84. It’s got a deepening low pressure meandering east of OC and the CCB is cranking for areas north of 70 (SURPRISE!) but the CCB is arcing south as the run ends and looks ready to crush CMD/NOVA. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I also think that the time for us to be able to console ourselves with ensemble means has come and gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Pretty disturbing to have every model on track for a massive hit for the almost the entire forum...except the Euro now. That was a pretty big jump south at 0z for us NW folks. Hope it was just a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: I agree. I wish it were the correct outcome, but I don't believe it will be. A blend of the Euro/GFS would work pretty nicely though. 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: I wish 6z RGEM went out past 84. It’s got a deepening low pressure meandering east of OC and the CCB is cranking for areas north of 70 (SURPRISE!) but the CCB is arcing south as the run ends and looks ready to crush CMD/NOVA. Yeah that’s a big hit forum wide and still dumping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I also think that the time for us to be able to console ourselves with ensemble means has come and gone. Yeah if the ens members don't agree with the op at this range then something is broken. It's GFS vs Euro. Which one will cave.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Yeah if the ens members don't agree with the op at this range then something is broken. It's GFS vs Euro. Which one will cave.. Is there any other model showing the evolution that the Euro has? Looks more like Euro vs. Everyone Else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not sure I want to go back and read the Euro PBP. Bad? Hiccup? Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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