psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The northern guidance came south. The southern guidance came north some. I’d like the euro tonight to look more like the NAM/rgem/icon/gfs/Ukmet then the ggem and para. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Ukie qpf slug bounced back north so hopefully the south trend has had it's fun and the jack has returned to it's rightful place in Manchester/Hereford 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Ukmet is a great run. DC about 5” from the WAA thump them dryslot and some light mix then about .7 qpf as snow from the deform. That would probably be another 8-10” or so. N VA through Central MD jacks. Likely some 20” totals there. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Ukie qpf slug bounced back north so hopefully the south trend has had it's fun and the jack has returned to it's rightful place in Manchester/Hereford Look at the icon and Ukmet...even the gfs somewhat. We can ALL win with a more amplified solution so long as we can stomach a few hours of sleet or drizzle. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Look at the icon and Ukmet...even the gfs somewhat. We can ALL win with a more amplified solution so long as we can stomach a few hours of sleet or drizzle. Dc loses 850s for 6-10 hours on the uk with some decent rain/mix. Euro had dc below freezing for the most part for the entire column during this time. Hopefully the euro thermals are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 @yoda on the 10-1 map DC is 12” but the first part of the waa and the deform world be high ratios so that looks like 12-15” to me These are all 10-1 and I would adjust up. Deform will have high ratios as depicted so would the first part of the WAA IAD 16” Leesburg 17” BWI 13” winchester 13” Westninster 17” Mappy 20” EZF 11” Frederick 13” Towson 17” Columbia 15” 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Negnao said: Dc loses 850s for 6-10 hours on the uk with some decent rain/mix. Euro had dc below freezing for the most part for the entire column during this time. Hopefully the euro thermals are right. DC loses about .35 to mix/rain on the UK. Still gets 1.2 qpf as snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ukmet is a great run. DC about 5” from the WAA thump them dryslot and some light mix then about .7 qpf as snow from the deform. That would probably be another 8-10” or so. N VA through Central MD jacks. Likely some 20” totals there. Agreed. Guidance is kind of converging on central to northern MD for the jack. I mean I probably end up with a measly 15 inches while someone else gets 22 . I really want DC to get double digits with this one. If we can have a subforum wide double digit event we all end up happy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 58 minutes ago, LP08 said: I’m not as smart as most here but here is the CMC at 500. Seems like a suspicious Max vorticity that draws everything further north comparing to 12z. Maybe someone smarter can chime in. That is odd but I am not convinced that is the issue. You can see differences in the 200mb winds at hr 90 before the vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: DC loses about .35 to mix/rain on the UK. Still gets 1.2 qpf as snow 925 is fine... its the 850s... worst is like +1C for a few hours looking at soundings... otherwise its like 0.5C 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It’s a 12-15” snowstorm in DC proper. Yes with a period of mix/rain. But why is the period of mix getting as much attention as the 15” of snow????? 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I will say. How amazing are weather models? We can track this stuff from a week plus away. It is nuts actually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s a 12-15” snowstorm in DC proper. Yes with a period of mix/rain. But why is the period of mix getting as much attention as the 15” of snow????? Mix/rain is like a commercial break during your favorite movie. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Look at the icon and Ukmet...even the gfs somewhat. We can ALL win with a more amplified solution so long as we can stomach a few hours of sleet or drizzle. DC always mixes during the big ones. And by always I don't mean usually, I mean nearly 100 percent of the time. Places like Loudoun, Frederick/Carroll do best often when DC mixes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @yoda on the 10-1 map DC is 12” but the first part of the waa and the deform world be high ratios so that looks like 12-15” to me These are all 10-1 and I would adjust up. Deform will have high ratios as depicted so would the first part of the WAA IAD 16” Leesburg 17” BWI 13” winchester 13” Westninster 17” Mappy 20” EZF 11” Frederick 13” Towson 17” Columbia 15” I can live with that Leesburg total. Was hoping for 20+ but I will survive. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18 hours ago, WxUSAF said: @MillvilleWx totally agree on the WAA providing a widespread low-end warning deal with the coastal being the wildcard. Big dogs always mix, so I’ll accept my sleet if and when it comes Monday in advance of hopefully puking dendrites in the CCB. I liked seeing the euro come into agreement with the other guidance on start time Sunday. Looks like mid-late morning. I’m stoked for a couple @Jebman Jebwalks in daylight with mod snow. You'll get those Jebman Jebwalks in daylight with moderate snow. You'll get outright heavy snow too! Then, it will happen at night, and you'll be treated to huge snowflakes blowing by the streetlights! It'll be an EPIC jebwalk! 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: Oh shit. There he is. I was wondering where you were brother. Where was I? I have been busy doing my snow dance down here, pullin for the Mid Atlantic to get walloped by a BECS-magnitude blizzard! 6 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 48 - 997mb SLP extreme W MO on 00z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 0z Euro, 72 Hrs 1005 SLP in E Kentucky 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro rock solid through 60. First flakes into Winchester at that time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Through 68 it looks UKIE-ish with a better Central VA WAA thump. Here's hoping it continues to follow that progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: 0z Euro, 72 Hrs 1005 SLP in E Kentucky Strong CAD is quite evident 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro west with the confluence again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro packs more of a punch on the front end for most of Maryland at 69h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Through 68 it looks UKIE-ish with a better Central VA WAA thump. Here's hoping it continues to follow that progression. It's actually a better thump for everyone that isn't psu. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, yoda said: Strong CAD is quite evident Yup. 72 hours, GFS had us going to rain. Euro, rain/sleet snow line down by RIC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 WAA definitely thumpier than 12Z or 18Z @ hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 0z Euro, 72 Hrs 1005 SLP in E Kentucky Already jumping at 72/ Should be really good. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Already looking good at 77. No real evidence of any sort of mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 It's colder than 12z for sure. So yeah, I'm pretty comfortable taking a dump on the GFS thermals 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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