stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: It's the ideal run for close in DC metro....a foot all snow. It's probably too suppressed and if we're in a deform band for 6-10 hours, I'm not worried about the lack of QPF I think it's overdone on the suppression too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: It's the ideal run for close in DC metro....a foot all snow. It's probably too suppressed and if we're in a deform band for 6-10 hours, I'm not worried about the lack of QPF You might be better off in DC for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The rest of the 0z guidance looked so good then the euro ruins my night. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Better front end can't hurt (unless it has downstream issues that I can't comprehend) but the back end isn't gone for most of us, I don't think. I'd classify all this as back-end. Hmmm. It looked worse than it was then. It seemed like a lot less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: You sayin' that in slightly sarcastic weenieism or do you actually have a reason? Im serious, especially in light that other guidance has it a bit more north. I mean, we'll know in about 12 hours how real this is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: The rest of the 0z guidance looked so good then the euro ruins my night. Lol Yeah, sorry about that. I hope it’s a blip and EPS shows a wider hit for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: The rest of the 0z guidance looked so good then the euro ruins my night. Lol But seriously though...how far south is this gonna go?? I mean one or two more ticks south and I'm even fringed, smh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I kind of want the GFS to be right now. It's been better for MBY a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said: Hmmm. It looked worse than it was then. It seemed like a lot less. It's mostly pretty light, hopefully high ratio. People have said the deform/back-end/CCB/whatever the term is will probably juice up in the short-term, but we're talking 10-15" in a period of 48+ hours. Do the math, and that's not crazy rates or anything. WAA might be the heaviest snow of the storm as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I think consensus is that we all take the Ukie I'm still just thrilled at the likelihood of warning criteria tbh.. Which I would have to think is very very high atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Im serious, especially in light that other guidance has it a bit more north. I mean, we'll know in about 12 hours how real this is I guess I'm nervous because the euro was the only one that got yesterday's suppressed storm track right. Wondering if we start seeing the other models get more and more suppressed...maybe that's my fears talking, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Crazy west to east storm. Double digits from Winchester to Easton. I will take it. The only model that screws me is the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This all comes down to how deep the eastern armpit of the omega block is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: But seriously though...how far south is this gonna go?? I mean one or two more ticks south and I'm even fringed, smh The rest of the guidance is comfortably more north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I guess I'm nervous because the euro was the only one that got yesterday's suppressed storm track right. Wondering if we start seeing the other models get more and more suppressed...maybe that's my fears talking, lol I think overall it's a good sign that people have been sweating on both sides of the coin recently. There was concern by many when Euro was spitting out those huge maxes in PA with lots less in NoVA. Still have a good 36 hours for things to shift before we really get into the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro is crazy. Hooks around NYC and then comes up and destroys Mass/Boston (shocked). Everyone mocks the GFS, but the Euro took places from like 18” to nothing in one run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, SnowDreamer said: I think overall it's a good sign that people have been sweating on both sides of the coin recently. There was concern by many when Euro was spitting out those huge maxes in PA with lots less in NoVA. Still have a good 36 hours for things to shift before we really get into the short range. Man I hope the Euro shifts right. It being right about yesterday when the rest of guidance wasn't has me nervous, dude...especially with the suppressive theme of the whole month. But hopefully tomorrow brings a better shift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Has the euro been consistent? Mind you here is the euro from just a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Im serious, especially in light that other guidance has it a bit more north. I mean, we'll know in about 12 hours how real this is Even the Navgem looks like THIS... Maybe it was just one hiccup but the trend is VERY disturbing. And not just for me. Like I said after the last run...I am one more adjustment of the exact same maginitued of the last 4 runs from being on the outside looking in....well that is now Baltimore, Columbia, Leesburg...one more after that and its DC... are we sure the south trend is over? That wave over New England squashing the flow in front keeps trending south every run! So part of me says....ok EVERYTHING else is north even the typically super suppressed NAVGEM, it was just a bad run. But on the other hand...this...is hard to ignore 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Has the euro been consistent? Mind you here is the euro from just a couple days ago. no..true it was north then south then north and now south again...but we are getting closer now...its one thing to be jumpy at 150 hours...but this is now 5 consecutive runs it has trended south. The bigger issue is it aligns with what I always thought was the bigger threat...that the flow to the northeast would suppress. I never for a second bought or worried at all about the runs that were north. The pattern doesn't fit that. But I am open to being convinced I am just being paranoid and this euro run was garbage and it will correct back north. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Return of the Jebi Obs threads can be so great on these drawn out ones IF we can get part 2 to help us but these transfers screw DC some and Northeast MD gets a foot . Overrunning looks almost assured . You guys are overdue to get totally shellacked by snow. Its gonna happen. Get those shovels all ready. You're gonna need 'em! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 No the Euro hasn't been super consistent on the snow totals. But tbh I think the most consistent clown maps have come from the para. It certainly looks more consistent than the euro on these maps, but obviously the clown maps aren't the defining characteristic of consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This seems like a good set of model signals with GFS very good, GEM perhaps a bit warmer solution than ideal, ECM now trending a bit suppressed, my guess is that a very large storm is likely and this divergence represents those developing signals coming into the mix -- in fact this could turn out to be a monster storm with the long interval of coastal development and signs that the center wants to set up very close to the Delaware coast. My hunch is we're looking at 20-30 inch amounts with this one. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: This seems like a good set of model signals with GFS very good, GEM perhaps a bit warmer solution than ideal, ECM now trending a bit suppressed, my guess is that a very large storm is likely and this divergence represents those developing signals coming into the mix -- in fact this could turn out to be a monster storm with the long interval of coastal development and signs that the center wants to set up very close to the Delaware coast. My hunch is we're looking at 20-30 inch amounts with this one. Good sir I hope your hunch is correct! Euro has some of us worried about a southern miss/fringe, lol But do you see that as correcting itself as we get closer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Good sir I hope your hunch is correct! Euro has some of us worried about a southern miss/fringe, lol But what do you see that as correcting itself as we get closer? I really thought yesterday would be the locked and loaded runs. We are like 36 hours from the first watches being hoisted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I really thought yesterday would be the locked and loaded runs. We are like 36 hours from the first watches being hoisted... Yeah seriously...this is ridiculous. 12z tomorrow might be big...Can you imagine? If the euro were to tick the wrong way tomorrow...I'd imagine that throws the entire forecast off, right? And what would happen with the transfer? Unless it's the nightmare scenario of it not happening at all and the primary (or whichever it is) escaping. Let's hope we see a better trend tomorrow, because I'm telling ya...we're so close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah seriously...this is ridiculous. 12z tomorrow might be big...Can you imagine? If the euro were to tick the wrong way tomorrow...I'd imagine that throws the entire forecast off, right? And what would happen with the transfer? Unless it's the nightmare scenario of it not happening at all and the primary (or whichever it is) escaping. Let's hope we see a better trend tomorrow, because I'm telling ya...we're so close! This has the makings of an epic nowcasting event. Hate to say the uncertainty makes it a little more fun vice a clean quick moving storm that’s predictable. Did you see the EPS for this latest 0z run? I didn’t see it posted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I really thought yesterday would be the locked and loaded runs. We are like 36 hours from the first watches being hoisted... Huh? They will be hoisted in this afternoon's package 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Here was the 00z GEPS mean 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 00z EPS mean 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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