psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It’s a 12-15” snowstorm in DC proper. Yes with a period of mix/rain. But why is the period of mix getting as much attention as the 15” of snow????? 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I will say. How amazing are weather models? We can track this stuff from a week plus away. It is nuts actually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s a 12-15” snowstorm in DC proper. Yes with a period of mix/rain. But why is the period of mix getting as much attention as the 15” of snow????? Mix/rain is like a commercial break during your favorite movie. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Look at the icon and Ukmet...even the gfs somewhat. We can ALL win with a more amplified solution so long as we can stomach a few hours of sleet or drizzle. DC always mixes during the big ones. And by always I don't mean usually, I mean nearly 100 percent of the time. Places like Loudoun, Frederick/Carroll do best often when DC mixes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @yoda on the 10-1 map DC is 12” but the first part of the waa and the deform world be high ratios so that looks like 12-15” to me These are all 10-1 and I would adjust up. Deform will have high ratios as depicted so would the first part of the WAA IAD 16” Leesburg 17” BWI 13” winchester 13” Westninster 17” Mappy 20” EZF 11” Frederick 13” Towson 17” Columbia 15” I can live with that Leesburg total. Was hoping for 20+ but I will survive. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18 hours ago, WxUSAF said: @MillvilleWx totally agree on the WAA providing a widespread low-end warning deal with the coastal being the wildcard. Big dogs always mix, so I’ll accept my sleet if and when it comes Monday in advance of hopefully puking dendrites in the CCB. I liked seeing the euro come into agreement with the other guidance on start time Sunday. Looks like mid-late morning. I’m stoked for a couple @Jebman Jebwalks in daylight with mod snow. You'll get those Jebman Jebwalks in daylight with moderate snow. You'll get outright heavy snow too! Then, it will happen at night, and you'll be treated to huge snowflakes blowing by the streetlights! It'll be an EPIC jebwalk! 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: Oh shit. There he is. I was wondering where you were brother. Where was I? I have been busy doing my snow dance down here, pullin for the Mid Atlantic to get walloped by a BECS-magnitude blizzard! 6 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 48 - 997mb SLP extreme W MO on 00z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 0z Euro, 72 Hrs 1005 SLP in E Kentucky 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro rock solid through 60. First flakes into Winchester at that time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Through 68 it looks UKIE-ish with a better Central VA WAA thump. Here's hoping it continues to follow that progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: 0z Euro, 72 Hrs 1005 SLP in E Kentucky Strong CAD is quite evident 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro west with the confluence again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro packs more of a punch on the front end for most of Maryland at 69h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Through 68 it looks UKIE-ish with a better Central VA WAA thump. Here's hoping it continues to follow that progression. It's actually a better thump for everyone that isn't psu. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, yoda said: Strong CAD is quite evident Yup. 72 hours, GFS had us going to rain. Euro, rain/sleet snow line down by RIC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 WAA definitely thumpier than 12Z or 18Z @ hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 0z Euro, 72 Hrs 1005 SLP in E Kentucky Already jumping at 72/ Should be really good. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Already looking good at 77. No real evidence of any sort of mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 It's colder than 12z for sure. So yeah, I'm pretty comfortable taking a dump on the GFS thermals 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Damn...no changeover yet vs 12z where we were mixing by now at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I think Euro's frozen. Running 2-3" higher than the last run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Synoptically we should have heavy snow at 78hrs That massive convective blob offshore might be causing some subsidence in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Jumped east at 78 and then tucked at 84 and said lets lay the beatdown on you. We are gonna get destroyed ya'll. Period. OK. I should have kept my mouth shut. I hope this is the Euro run that loses it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Woah It kind of jets off though for the 2nd wave, like.. in MoCo I've completely lost the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Lol this looks like the run 3 days from the 2016 blizzard that gave only gave Hagerstown 1" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This could be a really big run for metros. SLP not going anywhere at all from 80-90. Eta: gets pushed straight East after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Suppression city... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GREAT run for those who like the front end thump. But that back end is completely gone for a lot of us. We'll be relying on the front end for all our totals on the Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: GREAT run for those who like the front end thump. But that back end is completely gone for a lot of us. We'll be relying on the front end for all our totals on the Euro. Better front end can't hurt (unless it has downstream issues that I can't comprehend) but the back end isn't gone for most of us, I don't think. I'd classify all this as back-end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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