Hurricanegiants Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 FWIW Local Mets for the 11:00 news essentially took 7-8 inches area wide—12 plus just north of Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I’m not as smart as most here but here is the CMC at 500. Seems like a suspicious Max vorticity that draws everything further north comparing to 12z. Maybe someone smarter can chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 So i have a question what is the dark redish bullseye in PA mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Big GEFS hit On the mean or all the individual members as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs improved again. Honestly the gefs is slightly better then the eps now imo. Lol. CCBs the whole region Monday into Monday Night. ETA: if you adjust for their atrocious thermals. But that’s a given. The progression/trend gif you’ve been showing today was great to see. And this just continues that. Although this run is probably the last we look at the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Anyone have the GEFS mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 32 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I don't think most would want to toss this tbh Yep. I seem to be constantly wrong about a lot of stuff today. I'm gonna stop posting and let the pros do the work. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Anyone have the GEFS mean? Looks the same as 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Gefs mean temps are quite warm. Over 1.2” of precip but barely 6” on the snow mean. I know we shouldn’t use mean temps but its something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Para only really shows the WAA with no coastal? ETA: some backside, perhaps .1-.2" QPF? Decent WAA QPF though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Gefs mean temps are quite warm. Over 1.2” of precip but barely 6” on the snow mean. I know we shouldn’t use mean temps but its something. The gfs thermals are awful. Adjust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: The gfs thermals are awful. Adjust The highest the GEFS gets temps wise for DC is 40 degrees. The highest the EPS gets for DC temp wise is 31 degrees 3 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, hobbes9 said: Para only really shows the WAA with no coastal? ETA: some backside, perhaps .1-.2" QPF? Decent WAA QPF though. It's been doing that for awhile now. It'll either score a coup or be way out to lunch. Any love on the backend is probably a step in the right direction from its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 After looking over the CMC. It really isnt that much different from 18Z. Just the good banding ended up north this run. No way we can possibly know where the best banding ends up. We are still days away from knowing that. Having the RGEM with us makes me feel better about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: Gefs mean temps are quite warm. Over 1.2” of precip but barely 6” on the snow mean. I know we shouldn’t use mean temps but its something. This is the gfs, not the ensembles, but this panel shows how much rain falls. Around an inch of rain in the dc metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Anyone have the GEFS qpf map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's been doing that for awhile now. It'll either score a coup or be way out to lunch. Any love on the backend is probably a step in the right direction from its previous runs. FWIW, there are definitely GEFS members that do this. Any member that is mostly blue - that's (WAA only) what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: Anyone have the GEFS qpf map? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Negnao said: This is the gfs, not the ensembles, but this panel shows how much rain falls. Around an inch of rain in the dc metro. Would be nice if the qpf was accurate the thermals really are way to high. Riding that weenie logic to pass the time before the Ukie and Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GEFS trend pushing QPF a bit farther south as well. 1" line goes from central PA to almost the M/D line over the last few runs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Accuweather out with a snowfall map. Storm max 36” inches is a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Ukie is a central va jack with the WAA and deform through the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Wow...Ukie is a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Ukie is a central va jack with the WAA and deform through the area ? I think you might be looking at 12z. Looks honestly sweet from what I'm seeing 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: ? I think you might be looking at 12z. Looks honestly sweet from what I'm seeing Yeah. Main WAA goes through central va. Deform is dc and ne 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This is all the WAA. If Central VA isn't gonna get the CCB... this is a decent compromise. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Mixing along 95 on the UKIE looks to keep totals down on the clown maps from 78-90. QPF looks quite good and uniform. Generally 1-1.5" for the forum? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Yeah. We pretty much take the UKIE right now and call it a winter. CCB'd for hours on end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Ukie beatdown right through the heart of the forum. Abscond 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, hobbes9 said: Mixing along 95 on the UKIE looks to keep totals down on the clown maps from 78-90. QPF looks quite good and uniform. Generally 1-1.5" for the forum? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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