psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Gefs mean temps are quite warm. Over 1.2” of precip but barely 6” on the snow mean. I know we shouldn’t use mean temps but its something. The gfs thermals are awful. Adjust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: The gfs thermals are awful. Adjust The highest the GEFS gets temps wise for DC is 40 degrees. The highest the EPS gets for DC temp wise is 31 degrees 3 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, hobbes9 said: Para only really shows the WAA with no coastal? ETA: some backside, perhaps .1-.2" QPF? Decent WAA QPF though. It's been doing that for awhile now. It'll either score a coup or be way out to lunch. Any love on the backend is probably a step in the right direction from its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 After looking over the CMC. It really isnt that much different from 18Z. Just the good banding ended up north this run. No way we can possibly know where the best banding ends up. We are still days away from knowing that. Having the RGEM with us makes me feel better about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: Gefs mean temps are quite warm. Over 1.2” of precip but barely 6” on the snow mean. I know we shouldn’t use mean temps but its something. This is the gfs, not the ensembles, but this panel shows how much rain falls. Around an inch of rain in the dc metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Anyone have the GEFS qpf map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's been doing that for awhile now. It'll either score a coup or be way out to lunch. Any love on the backend is probably a step in the right direction from its previous runs. FWIW, there are definitely GEFS members that do this. Any member that is mostly blue - that's (WAA only) what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: Anyone have the GEFS qpf map? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Negnao said: This is the gfs, not the ensembles, but this panel shows how much rain falls. Around an inch of rain in the dc metro. Would be nice if the qpf was accurate the thermals really are way to high. Riding that weenie logic to pass the time before the Ukie and Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GEFS trend pushing QPF a bit farther south as well. 1" line goes from central PA to almost the M/D line over the last few runs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Accuweather out with a snowfall map. Storm max 36” inches is a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Ukie is a central va jack with the WAA and deform through the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Wow...Ukie is a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Ukie is a central va jack with the WAA and deform through the area ? I think you might be looking at 12z. Looks honestly sweet from what I'm seeing 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: ? I think you might be looking at 12z. Looks honestly sweet from what I'm seeing Yeah. Main WAA goes through central va. Deform is dc and ne 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This is all the WAA. If Central VA isn't gonna get the CCB... this is a decent compromise. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Mixing along 95 on the UKIE looks to keep totals down on the clown maps from 78-90. QPF looks quite good and uniform. Generally 1-1.5" for the forum? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Yeah. We pretty much take the UKIE right now and call it a winter. CCB'd for hours on end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Ukie beatdown right through the heart of the forum. Abscond 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, hobbes9 said: Mixing along 95 on the UKIE looks to keep totals down on the clown maps from 78-90. QPF looks quite good and uniform. Generally 1-1.5" for the forum? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The northern guidance came south. The southern guidance came north some. I’d like the euro tonight to look more like the NAM/rgem/icon/gfs/Ukmet then the ggem and para. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Ukie qpf slug bounced back north so hopefully the south trend has had it's fun and the jack has returned to it's rightful place in Manchester/Hereford 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Ukmet is a great run. DC about 5” from the WAA thump them dryslot and some light mix then about .7 qpf as snow from the deform. That would probably be another 8-10” or so. N VA through Central MD jacks. Likely some 20” totals there. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Ukie qpf slug bounced back north so hopefully the south trend has had it's fun and the jack has returned to it's rightful place in Manchester/Hereford Look at the icon and Ukmet...even the gfs somewhat. We can ALL win with a more amplified solution so long as we can stomach a few hours of sleet or drizzle. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Look at the icon and Ukmet...even the gfs somewhat. We can ALL win with a more amplified solution so long as we can stomach a few hours of sleet or drizzle. Dc loses 850s for 6-10 hours on the uk with some decent rain/mix. Euro had dc below freezing for the most part for the entire column during this time. Hopefully the euro thermals are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 @yoda on the 10-1 map DC is 12” but the first part of the waa and the deform world be high ratios so that looks like 12-15” to me These are all 10-1 and I would adjust up. Deform will have high ratios as depicted so would the first part of the WAA IAD 16” Leesburg 17” BWI 13” winchester 13” Westninster 17” Mappy 20” EZF 11” Frederick 13” Towson 17” Columbia 15” 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Negnao said: Dc loses 850s for 6-10 hours on the uk with some decent rain/mix. Euro had dc below freezing for the most part for the entire column during this time. Hopefully the euro thermals are right. DC loses about .35 to mix/rain on the UK. Still gets 1.2 qpf as snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ukmet is a great run. DC about 5” from the WAA thump them dryslot and some light mix then about .7 qpf as snow from the deform. That would probably be another 8-10” or so. N VA through Central MD jacks. Likely some 20” totals there. Agreed. Guidance is kind of converging on central to northern MD for the jack. I mean I probably end up with a measly 15 inches while someone else gets 22 . I really want DC to get double digits with this one. If we can have a subforum wide double digit event we all end up happy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 58 minutes ago, LP08 said: I’m not as smart as most here but here is the CMC at 500. Seems like a suspicious Max vorticity that draws everything further north comparing to 12z. Maybe someone smarter can chime in. That is odd but I am not convinced that is the issue. You can see differences in the 200mb winds at hr 90 before the vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: DC loses about .35 to mix/rain on the UK. Still gets 1.2 qpf as snow 925 is fine... its the 850s... worst is like +1C for a few hours looking at soundings... otherwise its like 0.5C 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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