snowfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS won't budge...interesting. Interested to see if the para hangs on Ignore it. Seriously. Unless the other better guidance goes that way...and even then I’d only buy it because they did. The gfs has been adding more confusion and noise then clarity for a while. Btw just saw the end of the rgem. Do people realize how good that was about to get. The ccb is exploding right over us and there is a lot of energy still to roll through. That was about to get GOOD. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Area wide beat down at 90hrs (Monday 18z) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: If we can truly discount the GFS thermals and that was all snow or a snow/sleet mix, it's actually a pretty good hit As I'm watching the 00z CMC slowly trickle in, I flipped back to 12z. The 12z CMC run (which ended up being pretty solid) had GFS as rain/sleet for 16 hours, FWIW. Point not being to deb, but note that we've had really good runs of some (slightly better) models that force DCA to rain in the lull. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: If we can truly discount the GFS thermals and that was all snow or a snow/sleet mix, it's actually a pretty good hit This is a 150% weenie assessment but if you assume the thermals are jacked because 1) it’s the gfs and 2) they are warmer due to the placement of the primary further north than all guidance - it leads me to believe we’d see more snow (and sleet) than depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: As I'm watching the 00z CMC slowly trickle in, I flipped back to 12z. The 12z CMC run (which ended up being pretty solid) had GFS as rain/sleet for 16 hours, FWIW. Point not being to deb, but note that we've had really good runs of some (slightly better) models that force DCA to rain in the lull. Oh I don't discount that we will see some rain/mix...pretty sure we do..but as much as the GFS shows? Dunno 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Somewhere in the last 12 hours, it was noted that WPC is basically not using it at all -and I forget why -but it was for a particular reason. Hope they are right about that. It has a progressive bias with the features in the PAC that will be critical to our storm. It’s slowly correcting less progressive each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 00Z CMC is mostly out here and it's actually not gonna make many friends. Big north jump, not really a significant deform band, main show would be the WAA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: This is a 150% weenie assessment but if you assume the thermals are jacked because 1) it’s the gfs and 2) they are warmer due to the placement of the primary further north than all guidance - it leads me to believe we’d see more snow (and sleet) than depicted. Just this panel alone. A strengthening storm off the coast and this is the northwest side of the precip? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 00Z CMC is mostly out here and it's actually not gonna make many friends. Big north jump, not really a significant deform band, main show would be the WAA. Yeah. Its a big step back from 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: This is a 150% weenie assessment but if you assume the thermals are jacked because 1) it’s the gfs and 2) they are warmer due to the placement of the primary further north than all guidance - it leads me to believe we’d see more snow (and sleet) than depicted. I think that's the conclusion, yeah. If the thermals are indeed wrong, more snow and sleet, less rain. But honestly I'm just waiting for it to cave instead of trying to figure out how it's wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Area wide beat down at 90hrs (Monday 18z) Yeah, that 90 hour panel is something else 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 00Z CMC is mostly out here and it's actually not gonna make many friends. Big north jump, not really a significant deform band, main show would be the WAA. Yuck. It’s not that it’s north it’s late. Doesn’t get the coastal going until too late for us. Luckily the rgem doesn’t agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Big Run for the Euro tonight.....unfortunately ill be asleep.... Its been locked in for 5+ runs now....wouldn't expect much change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yuck. It’s not that it’s north it’s late. Doesn’t get the coastal going until too late for us. Luckily the rgem doesn’t agree. Yeah, I was gonna say, luckily we still have the RGEM from the Canadian suite. HOpefully this CMC is a fluke run. Figures, just when the GFS starts getting good, the CMC goes off the rails a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: Big Run for the Euro tonight.....unfortunately ill be asleep.... Its been locked in for 5+ runs now....wouldn't expect much change... I'll be satisfied with no missed transfer from suppression...that's all I wanna see tonight, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 As long as euro keeps the timely transfer, we move on to tomorrow mornings suite in a great spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GEFS is a beat down. Period. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I was gonna say, luckily we still have the RGEM from the Canadian suite. HOpefully this CMC is a fluke run. Figures, just when the GFS starts getting good, the CMC goes off the rails a bit Gefs improved again. Honestly the gefs is slightly better then the eps now imo. Lol. CCBs the whole region Monday into Monday Night. ETA: if you adjust for their atrocious thermals. But that’s a given. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Big GEFS hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 FWIW Local Mets for the 11:00 news essentially took 7-8 inches area wide—12 plus just north of Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I’m not as smart as most here but here is the CMC at 500. Seems like a suspicious Max vorticity that draws everything further north comparing to 12z. Maybe someone smarter can chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 So i have a question what is the dark redish bullseye in PA mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Big GEFS hit On the mean or all the individual members as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs improved again. Honestly the gefs is slightly better then the eps now imo. Lol. CCBs the whole region Monday into Monday Night. ETA: if you adjust for their atrocious thermals. But that’s a given. The progression/trend gif you’ve been showing today was great to see. And this just continues that. Although this run is probably the last we look at the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Anyone have the GEFS mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 32 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I don't think most would want to toss this tbh Yep. I seem to be constantly wrong about a lot of stuff today. I'm gonna stop posting and let the pros do the work. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Anyone have the GEFS mean? Looks the same as 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Gefs mean temps are quite warm. Over 1.2” of precip but barely 6” on the snow mean. I know we shouldn’t use mean temps but its something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Para only really shows the WAA with no coastal? ETA: some backside, perhaps .1-.2" QPF? Decent WAA QPF though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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