Weather Will Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 7pm Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Great run for SWVA - bad for most everyone else compared to all other models/previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS continues to drive the primary up into Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 10 pm Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1am Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 500 is not impressive on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I am a bit concerned with how consistent the GFS has been in this general solution (at least with the primary)... have to hope its progressive bias is showing here, but it is keeping me from get too excited about the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 One of them will have to budge. Not sure which. GFS seems entrenched with no capitulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Still a 3-6” area wide on the initial thump. Then it goes to hell.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Snow totals from thump WB 18Z GFS...will be very interesting to see GEFS and EPS at 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 @MN Transplant GFS still handling that trailing piece currently near Japan very differently from Euro, I take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS doesn't know what the heck it wants to do with that low...lol Jumping all over the place! "Dance LP dance" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 As long as the Euro/CMC combo hold, I'm not going to fret about the GFS being stubborn. Now if one of those others move, then yeah.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: One of them will have to budge. Not sure which. GFS seems entrenched with no capitulation In regards to last event, it took the GFS about 90 to 96 hours to completely cave. Before then it was losing support, much like what is happening now. Even then the solution doesn't seem to bad, all models agree on the WAA aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Euro/GFS are worlds apart at 500. GFS is a strung out wave as it heads east vs the Euro with a MUCH stronger 500 low. I'd rather the Euro on our side. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: As long as the Euro/CMC combo hold, I'm not going to fret about the GFS being stubborn. Now if one of those others move, then yeah.... Yeah, I'm kind of in this camp of thinking right now. Can't fret too much. But it is stubbornly consistent which is concerning (annoying?)...and don't much like seeing the light rain/drizzle from about Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, essentially. We'll see how things evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Don't tease me like that, share! #1 is uninspiring. The rest though!!!!!! wrt the 2015 top analog. That system was a close match wrt h5 but it had absolutely no southern stream interaction unlike this setup which is a major difference. It was a pure NS miller B. There also was not even close to the same blocking leading up to that. It was all pac driven. I would this this setup is more favorable wrt the progression getting to that end result there. On the other hand if I’m being totally forthcoming the setup is slightly less favorable due to the initial wave coming across further north, then those other analogs like 2016/1996/1983. So I think expectations should be kept under hecs but that shows there is huge upside here and at the least a very good storm is possible if not likely. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I mean I guess I will take 3-6 or whatever comes from that mess (provided we dry slot enough when thermals are poor, to not rain on the 2-4 from the initial thump). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: @MN Transplant GFS still handling that trailing piece currently near Japan very differently from Euro, I take it? Honestly, it is falling apart before that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: As long as the Euro/CMC combo hold, I'm not going to fret about the GFS being stubborn. Now if one of those others move, then yeah.... And it would be a bit mind- boggling if the euro or cmc would cave, wouldn't it? I mean how much of a window can we reasonably expect this divergence to continue? I woulda thought is the Euro was gonna cave we'd start seeing that today, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, 87storms said: gfs, whether correct or not, has been pretty consistent for almost 2 days now. every time i look at it, it's just about the same track...a bit too far north. Aside from a few wobbles, pretty consistent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS still decides to stall a band of light-mod snow over the DC area from the costal/ULL. Weak for sure, but it's an improvement in that department 10:1 because Kuchera is contaminated by pervious event in some regions. Ninja'd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The para almost takes the low to Chicago before it hits a brick wall and heads to OH. Basically transfers at our latitude. 4-6" from the thump, dry slot, then 1-3" from snow showers on Monday from the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: The upper level system delivers some nice bonus snow on Monday/Tuesday... 10:1 It really isn't THAT bad stand alone. People are comparing it to the Euro...so of course relative to that, it's awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, WVclimo said: And PD II in 2003. Probably the greatest analog list ever, lol. That list looked like that 5 days before 2016 also. Obviously minus 2016 lol. Only other time they looked close to that good. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Endless light snow/snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GFS still decides to stall a band of light-mod snow over the DC area from the costal/ULL. Weak for sure, but it's an improvement in that department 10:1 because Kuchera is contaminated by pervious event in some regions. Ninja'd That's an odd trajectory for that band...not that I'm complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Para is the real "disaster" (although still advisory lvl snow most places) with the surface low progressing well east, with flow changing NW which opens up the door on downsloping cutting into any ULL snow showers (I am not buying any snow the para is showing after 12-18Z Monday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Para took a step toward the Euro idea IMO. Despite a similar H5 look to the op GFS early on, the CAD is better represented (which should be the case with the para's finer vertical resolution). This feeds back to a stronger, earlier coastal development. Need that H5 to come across a bit further south to really be in business. eta: The low still escapes east - I was just comparing the H96-108 evolution. Also, seems to be setting up a repeat scenario D7-8. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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