SnowDreamer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: NAM is also cold at the surface and 925. 850 is another story, but it is all sleet, no rain like the GfS or even Euro. This is an important point. 925 and below is frosty, and IMO the weenie takeaway is that GFS thermals still look weird against other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said: The NAM took away virtually all of my snow Euro shows 6-12" for SW and parts of central VA while ... practically nothing on the NAM. Think I would wait for the 3K to come into range or the NEST to get too worried. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 To my untrained eye the NAM seems good for Baltimore folks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Is this plausible or would you consider it be an outlier from a knowledge standpoint? Plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Well we got it back north and that’s the main thing, right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Am I missing something? I was under the impression that the NAM was a disaster and then I go look at it and I'm like...huh? 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 An hour ago we feared suppression. Now we fear too far north. I can’t keep up. “Calgon take me away!” (Old 1980’s commercial.) seriously though. I thought within 72 hours significant changes don’t usually occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Primary is stubborn to fold this run, likely to have implications on the coastal. It is a deeper 500 low than the Euro, interestingly. But, NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: So now hang on...we gonna have a model camp we're concerned about a late transfer on one end, and suppression/missed transfer on the other? Lol Fun times There's no shortage of threats to the happiness of a true weenie. In all seriousness, we've seen more runs with late transfers than suppression issues. I know the drum of trend on Euro is being beaten, and it's definitely a drum worth playing, but I still see more late transfers modeled than suppressed solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: Obviously I will trust the euro and less so the GFS until 12z tomorrow or a little later. Dint know how we got sucked into analyzing the 72 hrs NAM . NAM is good for analysis of how the pieces may be evolving. There are good things with this. Not to be taken verbatim but more to see how the pieces are coming together. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Am I missing something? I was under the impression that the NAM was a disaster and then I go look at it and I'm like...huh? Looks great for us on the front, with the usually caveat of the NAM being too juicy. Questionable low position at 84, but the 500 low is on track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: The NAM took away virtually all of my snow Euro shows 6-12" for SW and parts of central VA while ... practically nothing on the NAM. Which run? I don’t believe the new one has quite finished yet... so don’t freak out yet. Still some time anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Am I missing something? I was under the impression that the NAM was a disaster and then I go look at it and I'm like...huh? I think it looks better for the WAA front end going by the discussion here (though sleet later in the DC area)...but it's the uncertainty of the coastal that looks slower to get going through its run. I think it was faster on the transfer the previous cycle or two, for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Am I missing something? I was under the impression that the NAM was a disaster and then I go look at it and I'm like...huh? Exactly .5 all snow in the cities and peoples heads are exploding? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: But I will say this. The NAM is a thump to a drywall somewhat instead of a bunch of heavy rain Yes, IMBY, but rain isn’t a concern for all of us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: This is an important point. 925 and below is frosty, and IMO the weenie takeaway is that GFS thermals still look weird against other guidance. Don’t ever use gfs thermals. On second thought just don’t ever use the gfs. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Rhino16 said: Which run? I don’t believe the new one has quite finished yet... so don’t freak out yet. Still some time anyway. It's no big deal, it looks nice further north. Just not good for central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Exactly .5 all snow in the cities and peoples heads are exploding? Nice thump but these are some ugly 850s 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Good run for the first half of the storm. Second half subtle differences, bit more dry air, milder temps, but we don’t see beyond 84 on how the low intensifies. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Looks great for us on the front, with the usually caveat of the NAM being too juicy. Questionable low position at 84, but the 500 low is on track. That was going to end very well imo. The h5 was just about to pass under us and you can see hints of the precip breaking out in response. DC was going to get more snow after that run ended. It’s depressing looking because the run ended right before the ccb exploded. That upper low and surface position there remind me of the lull in the Feb 11 2010 storm when everyone was freaking out then the upper level low caught up and boom. More amplified also means a nicer front end thump and I’m not that worried about temps it’s truly cold to start. The high res models are picking up on that. I doubt the gfs mid to upper 30s nonsense. Might mix with sleet but so what. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Am I missing something? I was under the impression that the NAM was a disaster and then I go look at it and I'm like...huh? It depends. If the heaviest band is in northern Md I’d say this run will get an A+ rating. Time will tell. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: That was going to end very well imo. The h5 was just about to pass under us and you can see hints of the precip breaking out in response. DC was going to get more snow after that run ended. It’s depressing looking because the run ended right before the ccb exploded. That upper low and surface position there remind me of the lull in the Feb 11 2010 storm when everyone was freaking out then the upper level low caught up and boom. More amplified also means a nicer front end thump and I’m not that worried about temps it’s truly cold to start. The high res models are picking up on that. I doubt the gfs mid to upper 30s nonsense. Might mix with sleet but so what. So I'm not crazy after all. Weenie reads would have people thinking it was a complete disaster. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Am I missing something? I was under the impression that the NAM was a disaster and then I go look at it and I'm like...huh? 5” on the ground then some sleet and that was about to crash and start dumping again as the slp was captured and tucking and the h5 was very amplified and about to pass into VA. The ccb was about to light up 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That was going to end very well imo. The h5 was just about to pass under us and you can see hints of the precip breaking out in response. DC was going to get more snow after that run ended. It’s depressing looking because the run ended right before the ccb exploded. That upper low and surface position there remind me of the lull in the Feb 11 2010 storm when everyone was freaking out then the upper level low caught up and boom. More amplified also means a nicer front end thump and I’m not that worried about temps it’s truly cold to start. The high res models are picking up on that. I doubt the gfs mid to upper 30s nonsense. Might mix with sleet but so what. In a perfect scenario I think we’d like to see a bit more of a surface reflection at 84, but you can start to see it and it will stall as the 500 comes close. That 500 track looks good. Better than the open wave GFS at that point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: So I'm not crazy after all. Weenie reads would have people thinking it was a complete disaster. I’m telling you I’ve noticed that any run that shows mixing and people freak out. I got several hours of sleet near IAD in 96. It sleeted into PA in 2003. I got some sleet up here during the psuhoffman storm and briefly during the Feb 11 2010 hecs and for a bit during the 15” March 2018 storm. I loved every one of them. People need to get over seeing a panel with non blue over them during a storm. At least not to the point they ignore the bigger picture. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I’m telling you I’ve noticed that any run that shows mixing and people freak out. I got several hours of sleet near IAD in 96. It sleeted into PA in 2003. I got some sleet up here during the psuhoffman storm and briefly during the Feb 11 2010 hecs and for a bit during the 15” March 2018 storm. I loved every one of them. People need to get over seeing a panel with non blue over them during a storm. At least not to the point they ignore the bigger picture. Especially if the sleet is during the lull after the WAA anyway. You aren’t “wasting” much precip. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RGEM is south and thumping at 66. Would be a great jump IMO. Oh yeah. Its tasty AF. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I’m telling you I’ve noticed that any run that shows mixing and people freak out. I got several hours of sleet near IAD in 96. It sleeted into PA in 2003. I got some sleet up here during the psuhoffman storm and briefly during the Feb 11 2010 hecs and for a bit during the 15” March 2018 storm. I loved every one of them. People need to get over seeing a panel with non blue over them during a storm. At least not to the point they ignore the bigger picture. Let’s be fair here. Any runs that show a more southern outcome ... you freak out. That’s when you somehow stop seeing the bigger picture. But I totally understand. This is an imby sport. But it works both ways. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM is south and thumping at 66. Would be a great jump IMO. Yeah, I'm up to 78 and it looks great so far 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, I'm up to 78 and it looks great so far How's it look compared to 18Z? I'm only on TT and it's not out too far there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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