Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm

[WxUSAF]

So the ensemble mean snow map jackpot moved south like 30miles and we’re calling that a huge shift? That’s noise. 

[mappy]

 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Gotta say, for the first time in half a decade it feels good being in southern Maryland and looking at snowmaps.  

You know I thought the same thing but climo has a way of equalizing things.  Be happy but prepared.  

[mattskiva]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

How much of this is from the frontend vs. coastal?  Doesn't seem to imply as strong of a coastal as some of the earlier solutions.

 

[WxMan1]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but it’s close. Depends how suppressed the WAA wave gets. Unfortunately we’re on opposite sides here. You need the solution that would screw me lol. 

When I lived in Chesterfield County (while working at AKQ), quite often the 6+ inch snowstorms required some CCB/backside frontogenetic action.  Lots of  events with 1-2/2-4" front side WAA and that's it before the dry slot and eventual wrap around staying north. We did get a nice front-end thump however on Dec 18, 2009 before switching to sleet then rain. More recently, the Jan 23, 2016 event in Central VA was "made" by the CCB on day 2. The Dec 9, 2018 event was a central VA classic, wdsprd 10-12", with a flatter (and yet still elongated) CCB allowing for the duration that is needed to produce these high amounts. 

To me, what happens Sunday night and Monday will dictate whether or not the event for the RVA ends up being more an advisory/low-end warning one or something much more significant. 

[IronTy]

Just now, BristowWx said:

You know I thought the same thing but climo has a way of equalizing things.  Be happy but prepared.  

After the 2016 bust I think we're due, hopefully the weather agrees with me.

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

So the ensemble mean snow map jackpot moved south like 30miles and we’re calling that a huge shift? That’s noise. 

Possibly, but PSU brought up some good points. Cannot miss the capture and let it slip away.

[midatlanticweather]

This is probably not completely true, but is there a correlation to full moons and big storms? Maybe I am wrong, but they seem to happen close to each other. Maybe it is coincidence.. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

If this holds its a nice storm for the entire forum. No need to be greedy lol.

If it holds yes. But let me illustrate my point so you stop thinking I’m imagining this then I’m done. Promise. 

I’m using the euro control because the op only runs to 90 but the op and control were very similar each run. 

look at the trend the last 24 hours. It’s not just south. It’s a less amplified system each run. Suppressed. Yes this run was still “good” but were losing the big upside here with a weaker wave but more troubling (because I would totally take a 6-12” storm and because I’ve always thought the flow was too suppressive to get a too north solution) it’s literally 1 more deamplification trend of the exact same amount of each of the last 4 runs from being an insignificant event up here and not that significant anywhere frankly. I’m only a few miles south of the sharp cutoff to just minor accumulations now. And that cutoff has shifted south significantly every run. Why is everyone so sure the south trend is over and 0z won’t have that northern cutoff running through Baltimore?   More so any further de amplified and frankly were looking at a run of the mill snowstorm across VA and lower MD and no one is getting 1-2 feet.  Is staying all snow that important that it’s worth giving up the kind of big solutions we were looking at 24 hours ago with a more amplified wave?  If I was you or Frd or Richmond I would say yea. Because I don’t think an amped up tucked low works out for those spots.  But DC and Baltimore peeps seem to be rooting for less amplified too.  Is staying all snow worth giving up a 12-24” storm for a run of the mill 4-8” deal because thats where this could end up if the suppression trend continues.  

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

If it holds yes. But let me illustrate my point so you stop thinking I’m imagining this then I’m done. Promise. 

I’m using the euro control because the op only runs to 90 but the op and control were very similar each run. 

look at the trend the last 24 hours. It’s not just south. It’s a less amplified system each run. Suppressed. Yes this run was still “good” but were losing the big upside here with a weaker wave but more troubling (because I would totally take a 6-12” storm and because I’ve always thought the flow was too suppressive to get a too north solution) it’s literally 1 more deamplification trend of the exact same amount of each of the last 4 runs from being an insignificant event up here and not that significant anywhere frankly. I’m only a few miles south of the sharp cutoff to just minor accumulations now. And that cutoff has shifted south significantly every run. Why is everyone so sure the south trend is over and 0z won’t have that northern cutoff running through Baltimore?   More so any further de amplified and frankly were looking at a run of the mill snowstorm across VA and lower MD and no one is getting 1-2 feet.  Is staying all snow that important that it’s worth giving up the kind of big solutions we were looking at 24 hours ago with a more amplified wave?  If I was you or Frd or Richmond I would say yea. Because I don’t think an amped up tucked low works out for those spots.  But DC and Baltimore peeps seem to be rooting for less amplified too.  Is staying all snow worth giving up a 12-24” storm for a run of the mill 4-8” deal because thats where this could end up if the suppression trend continues.  

I will gladly take a weaker system that gives me 6" of snow without 40 degree temps and rain in the middle. Hell fuccking yes.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

If it holds yes. But let me illustrate my point so you stop thinking I’m imagining this then I’m done. Promise. 

I’m using the euro control because the op only runs to 90 but the op and control were very similar each run. 

look at the trend the last 24 hours. It’s not just south. It’s a less amplified system each run. Suppressed. Yes this run was still “good” but were losing the big upside here with a weaker wave but more troubling (because I would totally take a 6-12” storm and because I’ve always thought the flow was too suppressive to get a too north solution) it’s literally 1 more deamplification trend of the exact same amount of each of the last 4 runs from being an insignificant event up here and not that significant anywhere frankly. I’m only a few miles south of the sharp cutoff to just minor accumulations now. And that cutoff has shifted south significantly every run. Why is everyone so sure the south trend is over and 0z won’t have that northern cutoff running through Baltimore?   More so any further de amplified and frankly were looking at a run of the mill snowstorm across VA and lower MD and no one is getting 1-2 feet.  Is staying all snow that important that it’s worth giving up the kind of big solutions we were looking at 24 hours ago with a more amplified wave?  If I was you or Frd or Richmond I would say yea. Because I don’t think an amped up tucked low works out for those spots.  But DC and Baltimore peeps seem to be rooting for less amplified too.  Is staying all snow worth giving up a 12-24” storm for a run of the mill 4-8” deal because thats where this could end up if the suppression trend continues.  

You present quite the dilemma.  4-8 isn’t run of the mill for me.  I’ll be honest.  Especially 8.  But the idea of 12-24 is a dice roll I would make.  Of course rooting is not really a factor.  Things will go down as they will. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I will gladly take a weaker system that gives me 6" of snow without 40 degree temps and rain in the middle. Hell fuccking yes.

This. 

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If it holds yes. But let me illustrate my point so you stop thinking I’m imagining this then I’m done. Promise. 

I’m using the euro control because the op only runs to 90 but the op and control were very similar each run. 

look at the trend the last 24 hours. It’s not just south. It’s a less amplified system each run. Suppressed. Yes this run was still “good” but were losing the big upside here with a weaker wave but more troubling (because I would totally take a 6-12” storm and because I’ve always thought the flow was too suppressive to get a too north solution) it’s literally 1 more deamplification trend of the exact same amount of each of the last 4 runs from being an insignificant event up here and not that significant anywhere frankly. I’m only a few miles south of the sharp cutoff to just minor accumulations now. And that cutoff has shifted south significantly every run. Why is everyone so sure the south trend is over and 0z won’t have that northern cutoff running through Baltimore?   More so any further de amplified and frankly were looking at a run of the mill snowstorm across VA and lower MD and no one is getting 1-2 feet.  Is staying all snow that important that it’s worth giving up the kind of big solutions we were looking at 24 hours ago with a more amplified wave?  If I was you or Frd or Richmond I would say yea. Because I don’t think an amped up tucked low works out for those spots.  But DC and Baltimore peeps seem to be rooting for less amplified too.  Is staying all snow worth giving up a 12-24” storm for a run of the mill 4-8” deal because thats where this could end up if the suppression trend continues.  

I’d sign up for a ‘run of the mill’ 6-8” storm where I’m not in a dry slot/rain so Harrisburg, PA can get 2 feet.  Not even  a hard decision for me.

[WVclimo]

Man, look at those sites in northern PA that 18 hours ago were modeled to get 12-15" and are now progged under an inch.  The weenies there have a legit reason to complain.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, AmericanWxFreak said:

This. 

Yeah me too, I love storms where it actually feels like winter start to finish and it isn’t drip drop drip drop for 5 hours in the middle.  I don’t care too much about the super duper amounts at this juncture given our recent futility.  I’d just like some snow that sticks and doesn’t melt instantly.  Even if this ends up a 2-4 or 3-6 inch deal I’ll be pretty happy. 

[Buddy1987]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If it holds yes. But let me illustrate my point so you stop thinking I’m imagining this then I’m done. Promise. 

I’m using the euro control because the op only runs to 90 but the op and control were very similar each run. 

look at the trend the last 24 hours. It’s not just south. It’s a less amplified system each run. Suppressed. Yes this run was still “good” but were losing the big upside here with a weaker wave but more troubling (because I would totally take a 6-12” storm and because I’ve always thought the flow was too suppressive to get a too north solution) it’s literally 1 more deamplification trend of the exact same amount of each of the last 4 runs from being an insignificant event up here and not that significant anywhere frankly. I’m only a few miles south of the sharp cutoff to just minor accumulations now. And that cutoff has shifted south significantly every run. Why is everyone so sure the south trend is over and 0z won’t have that northern cutoff running through Baltimore?   More so any further de amplified and frankly were looking at a run of the mill snowstorm across VA and lower MD and no one is getting 1-2 feet.  Is staying all snow that important that it’s worth giving up the kind of big solutions we were looking at 24 hours ago with a more amplified wave?  If I was you or Frd or Richmond I would say yea. Because I don’t think an amped up tucked low works out for those spots.  But DC and Baltimore peeps seem to be rooting for less amplified too.  Is staying all snow worth giving up a 12-24” storm for a run of the mill 4-8” deal because thats where this could end up if the suppression trend continues.  

I have tried hard to not jinx or have some wild crazy swing but every major model guidance has a solid event for sw va. Ensembles and control runs are all in the same ballpark. I would def say upper end of things here is 8-12”. WAA Miller B thumps usually treat us decent out this way. Sneaky warm layer can intrude at times with some sleet but with south trend and models trending colder def helps us out down this way. I think if most can score a coup of 6-10” almost forum wide that would be a huge morale boost and a psychological pickup. Been 3 years since I’ve had a legitimate pick up the shovel and move snow event. We ended up with an inch last night and it didn’t melt at all today so it’s nice to see something on the ground. 

[ers-wxman1]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If it holds yes. But let me illustrate my point so you stop thinking I’m imagining this then I’m done. Promise. 

I’m using the euro control because the op only runs to 90 but the op and control were very similar each run. 

look at the trend the last 24 hours. It’s not just south. It’s a less amplified system each run. Suppressed. Yes this run was still “good” but were losing the big upside here with a weaker wave but more troubling (because I would totally take a 6-12” storm and because I’ve always thought the flow was too suppressive to get a too north solution) it’s literally 1 more deamplification trend of the exact same amount of each of the last 4 runs from being an insignificant event up here and not that significant anywhere frankly. I’m only a few miles south of the sharp cutoff to just minor accumulations now. And that cutoff has shifted south significantly every run. Why is everyone so sure the south trend is over and 0z won’t have that northern cutoff running through Baltimore?   More so any further de amplified and frankly were looking at a run of the mill snowstorm across VA and lower MD and no one is getting 1-2 feet.  Is staying all snow that important that it’s worth giving up the kind of big solutions we were looking at 24 hours ago with a more amplified wave?  If I was you or Frd or Richmond I would say yea. Because I don’t think an amped up tucked low works out for those spots.  But DC and Baltimore peeps seem to be rooting for less amplified too.  Is staying all snow worth giving up a 12-24” storm for a run of the mill 4-8” deal because thats where this could end up if the suppression trend continues.  

Miller B storms are just plain complicated. No way around it. Anytime you are relying on a transfer of energy from one system to another aligned along a baroclinic zone you are asking for trouble at this latitude. The 500 trough is not all that impressive and there are a number of other factors involved to make this work. I think the model envelope is shrinking but it’s those finer details that still need to be worked out in the next 48 hours that count. These track and snowfall maps will change every run.

[H2O]

It’s a no brainer to want a blanket of 6-8” for everywhere with zero temp issues instead of 18” for some and mix for others. 
 

 

[CAPE]

GFS will turn this all upside-down so y'all ready?!!? 

[Interstate]

4 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Man, look at those sites in northern PA that 18 hours ago were modeled to get 12-15" and are now progged under an inch.  The weenies there have a legit reason to complain.

Some of those weenies might be some of us soon. 

[WxUSAF]

16 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Possibly, but PSU brought up some good points. Cannot miss the capture and let it slip away.

I totally agree, but I think we’ve had one op run (and the ukie at that) with something like that in the last 72hrs?

[Interstate]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I totally agree, but I think we’ve had one op run (and the ukie at that) with something like that in the last 72hrs?

Yes but it was the last run of the Ukie. Was it on to something. 

[delgto04]

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

Miller B storms are just plain complicated. No way around it. Anytime you are relying on a transfer of energy from one system to another aligned along a baroclinic zone you are asking for trouble at this latitude. The 500 trough is not all that impressive and there are a number of other factors involved to make this work. I think the model envelope is shrinking but it’s those finer details that still need to be worked out in the next 48 hours that count. These track and snowfall maps will change everyone run.

This! We have been through these scenarios countless times. 

[clskinsfan]

Not trying to be an ass. But the Euro has pretty much Bullseyed Winchester for 3 days. the GFS has screwed us every run at the same time. Weird frikin position to be in. One model smashes us. The other laughs at the Euro and says "Ummm no". I have no idea what to expect at this point. Just give all of us 10 plus and call it a win. 

[anotherman]

I always want the big dog, but.....if you told me I could have wall to wall cold but there would only be 2-4 and 3-6 events and no big storms....I’d take that in a heartbeat. What I really love about winter is the winter landscape and staying power.

[WVclimo]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Some of those weenies might be some of us soon. 

I feel ya.  I am further north than your location and a lot farther from the coast.  But I'll be pretty satisfied with a snowy day on Sunday and hope for a chance to add some on Monday.  

[Steve25]

The models all generally agree with a front end thump of at least a few inches, right? 

So what were discussing is if we'd prefer to just get that thump and then the coastal never really takes shape for our area so the boom coastal scenario is taken off the board...or if we'd rather the coastal work out, but with it comes the risk of mixing or a dry slot? 

Maybe I'm just gambling too much, but I live for the big storms. Especially if I'm getting the front end thump regardless! I will enjoy that thump no matter what follows, so give me the chance for more over no chance. 

[Heisy]

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

I always want the big dog, but.....if you told me I could have wall to wall cold but there would only be 2-4 and 3-6 events and no big storms....I’d take that in a heartbeat. What I really love about winter is the winter landscape and staying power.

Some of us are like that and others are like me, give me one HECS a winter surrounded by temps in the 60s. I track for severe storms, 3-6” are fine but at the end of the storm you’re always pining for more. Idk. We need a shift N at 00z stop the bleeding

the main culprit is that shortwave near N New England, been trending stronger each run

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

Some of us are like that and others are like me, give me one HECS a winter surrounded by temps in the 60s. I track for severe storms, 3-6” are fine but at the end of the storm you’re always pining for more. Idk. We need a shift N at 00z stop the bleeding

the main culprit is that shortwave near N New England, been trending stronger each run

You’re in Philly? DC doesn’t need a north shift lol, EPS bullseyes this area. 

[osfan24]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I totally agree, but I think we’ve had one op run (and the ukie at that) with something like that in the last 72hrs?

The animation PSU showed though does show that there is less amplification. It's not only more suppressed, but also just flatter and less dynamic. Maybe the trend reverses. But like he said, we are losing the big dog potential.