Heisy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The biggest issue is that lobe of confluence that is trending stronger recently, that’s the main culprit of the S trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: This run would crush DC. The CCB is developing right over them at 90 and pivoting. But I fear that run if continued was going to be disappointing for places north of Baltimore compared to last run. The low was suppressed pretty far SE this run. But I’d also be concerned with any further south shifts. I am not worried about north. Never have been. Never thought given the setup this could miss us north. Imo we’re either getting a big snow or it’s getting suppressed. Do you think we will get the last minute North trend that we get with most intenstifing systems. I am just as far north as you but much further west. My concern is if we are in the bullseye 3/ 4 days out it would be congrats state college by game time. That's basically what happened in December . Differnt situation without blocking back then but the north adjust 48 hours in is always on my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 28 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z also looks great at 90. Slightly mixy but the coastal transfer looks like it's already starting to paying dividends. That’s quite an encouraging panel for DC metro. I would think we get a bunch more snow after this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This run would crush DC. The CCB is developing right over them at 90 and pivoting. But I fear that run if continued was going to be disappointing for places north of Baltimore compared to last run. The low was suppressed pretty far SE this run. But I’d also be concerned with any further south shifts. I am not worried about north. Never have been. Never thought given the setup this could miss us north. Imo we’re either getting a big snow or it’s getting suppressed. It’s hard to ignore seasonal trends and yesterdays storm is certainly a prime example. And kudos to you for sticking to your guns. After 0z I was convinced this was a typical miller b screw job and we were going to have to watch nyc and Boston get clobbered. That was always my concern but they can’t like this run. Let’s hope it stays right where it is at 18z and I think all of us will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not sure I like the 18z euro. It’s dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping Making me nervous for 0z dude...It would be a fail of spectacular proportions (but one you warned was the main fail scenario: suppression). That's how some would get blanked, and others wouldn't get warning criteria. I hope it doesn't trend south again tonight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King George Dee Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Any forecasts for the Fredericksburg area? Last map shows 7 inches. Newbie still learning here by reading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Making me nervous for 0z dude...It would be a fail of spectacular proportions (but one you warned was the main fail scenario: suppression). That's how some would get blanked, and others wouldn't get warning criteria. I hope it doesn't trend south again tonight. If we’re picking our fail method I say let’s go suppression. We’ll hopefully still get something on the WAA, maybe just less, but at least it would be cold and wouldn’t melt right away. Just now, King George Dee said: Any forecasts for the Fredericksburg area? Last map shows 7 inches. Newbie still learning here by reading. If the 18z euro is right you’ll get a lot of snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: The biggest issue is that lobe of confluence that is trending stronger recently, that’s the main culprit of the S trend How many times has that happened this year? And isn’t it time for the eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: How many times has that happened this year? And isn’t it time for the eps? Hasn't started yet on WB. Seems late. What else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDSnowyWxTracker Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Making me nervous for 0z dude...It would be a fail of spectacular proportions (but one you warned was the main fail scenario: suppression). That's how some would get blanked, and others wouldn't get warning criteria. I hope it doesn't trend south again tonight. You are saying what us northern crew and western crew are thinking and worried about. NAM, RGEM and 18Z Euro all have that low down in Outer Banks but moving mostly east ENE(maybe NAM is a little better with Low position) Sure capture part could happen but likely too late for us. Hoping a blip, we see more lows west on the EPS, so the capture can at least keep us from fringing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: The biggest issue is that lobe of confluence that is trending stronger recently, that’s the main culprit of the S trend Up in the New York area they are panicking that everything will be South of them. Have to view the EPS and see what the trends are, if any. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 33 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is primarily the WAA right? Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's funny that you always tend to completely unravel as we get close to an event, yet end up being the one who gets absolutely destroyed. I’m not freaking out yet. But I’m telling you this isn’t cutting. The flow is way too suppressive. It’s just odd because I feel like every run people are rooting for a more suppressed south solution because their focused too much on staying all snow. Yes a more amplified wave introduces mixing issue to 95. But it also introduces huge upside potential. Who cares if it mixes if you get 10-20”! A weaker less amplified wave reduces mixing but opens the door to no one getting huge totals and possibly the northern areas getting screwed. So each run I see a less amplified system I cringe while others celebrate. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Hasn't started yet on WB. Seems late. What else is new? Started now. Out to 30 (at least the 500 maps are). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: If we’re picking our fail method I say let’s go suppression. We’ll hopefully still get something on the WAA, maybe just less, but at least it would be cold and wouldn’t melt right away. But that would result in half the forum failing to hit the warning mark (5") that to me would be a huge bust...because all this time the coastal has been a bit trickier of a question, but the front end seemed more sure. But to be in danger of not gettimg that AND missing the coastal? Brtual...hope it's just a blip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: Do you think the Richmond area is still squarely in the game? I appreciate all your detailed analysis! Yes but it’s close. Depends how suppressed the WAA wave gets. Unfortunately we’re on opposite sides here. You need the solution that would screw me lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yes but it’s close. Depends how suppressed the WAA wave gets. Unfortunately we’re on opposite sides here. You need the solution that would screw me lol. So what's the point south where if it gets pushed there it misses the transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Ok folks, we don’t need anyone in here screwing the other..... 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Do you think we will get the last minute North trend that we get with most intenstifing systems. I am just as far north as you but much further west. My concern is if we are in the bullseye 3/ 4 days out it would be congrats state college by game time. That's basically what happened in December . Differnt situation without blocking back then but the north adjust 48 hours in is always on my mind. The flow is more suppressive and its mid winter not Dec. I don’t see that happening again. If we get the game time and it’s close I could see the deform setting up slightly north like often happens but it’s unlikely to shift like 100 miles it anything. I think the north bumps will be minor this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 EPS a smidge south of 12z through 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 @psuhoffman thoughts ? More spread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 DT first crack... 14 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But that would result in half the forum failing to hit the warning mark (5") that to me would be a huge bust...because all this time the coastal has been a bit trickier of a question, but the front end seemed more sure. But to be in danger of not gettimg that AND missing the coastal? Brtual...hope it's just a blip. I dunno, glad this is all hypothetical (for now) and most models aren’t showing this. It doesn’t seem like we’re in danger of losing the whole set up. Most models still target our region. I think a large swath of our region gets 5+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Wasn't expecting that ^ @ers-wxman1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, frd said: @psuhoffman thoughts ? More spread? If we can’t get a good snow from that we can’t get a good snow 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: DT first crack... Looks a lot like the 12z op euro. Coincidentally I’m sure. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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