MDSnowyWxTracker Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Making me nervous for 0z dude...It would be a fail of spectacular proportions (but one you warned was the main fail scenario: suppression). That's how some would get blanked, and others wouldn't get warning criteria. I hope it doesn't trend south again tonight. You are saying what us northern crew and western crew are thinking and worried about. NAM, RGEM and 18Z Euro all have that low down in Outer Banks but moving mostly east ENE(maybe NAM is a little better with Low position) Sure capture part could happen but likely too late for us. Hoping a blip, we see more lows west on the EPS, so the capture can at least keep us from fringing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: The biggest issue is that lobe of confluence that is trending stronger recently, that’s the main culprit of the S trend Up in the New York area they are panicking that everything will be South of them. Have to view the EPS and see what the trends are, if any. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 33 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is primarily the WAA right? Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's funny that you always tend to completely unravel as we get close to an event, yet end up being the one who gets absolutely destroyed. I’m not freaking out yet. But I’m telling you this isn’t cutting. The flow is way too suppressive. It’s just odd because I feel like every run people are rooting for a more suppressed south solution because their focused too much on staying all snow. Yes a more amplified wave introduces mixing issue to 95. But it also introduces huge upside potential. Who cares if it mixes if you get 10-20”! A weaker less amplified wave reduces mixing but opens the door to no one getting huge totals and possibly the northern areas getting screwed. So each run I see a less amplified system I cringe while others celebrate. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Hasn't started yet on WB. Seems late. What else is new? Started now. Out to 30 (at least the 500 maps are). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: If we’re picking our fail method I say let’s go suppression. We’ll hopefully still get something on the WAA, maybe just less, but at least it would be cold and wouldn’t melt right away. But that would result in half the forum failing to hit the warning mark (5") that to me would be a huge bust...because all this time the coastal has been a bit trickier of a question, but the front end seemed more sure. But to be in danger of not gettimg that AND missing the coastal? Brtual...hope it's just a blip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: Do you think the Richmond area is still squarely in the game? I appreciate all your detailed analysis! Yes but it’s close. Depends how suppressed the WAA wave gets. Unfortunately we’re on opposite sides here. You need the solution that would screw me lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yes but it’s close. Depends how suppressed the WAA wave gets. Unfortunately we’re on opposite sides here. You need the solution that would screw me lol. So what's the point south where if it gets pushed there it misses the transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Ok folks, we don’t need anyone in here screwing the other..... 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Do you think we will get the last minute North trend that we get with most intenstifing systems. I am just as far north as you but much further west. My concern is if we are in the bullseye 3/ 4 days out it would be congrats state college by game time. That's basically what happened in December . Differnt situation without blocking back then but the north adjust 48 hours in is always on my mind. The flow is more suppressive and its mid winter not Dec. I don’t see that happening again. If we get the game time and it’s close I could see the deform setting up slightly north like often happens but it’s unlikely to shift like 100 miles it anything. I think the north bumps will be minor this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 EPS a smidge south of 12z through 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 @psuhoffman thoughts ? More spread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 DT first crack... 14 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But that would result in half the forum failing to hit the warning mark (5") that to me would be a huge bust...because all this time the coastal has been a bit trickier of a question, but the front end seemed more sure. But to be in danger of not gettimg that AND missing the coastal? Brtual...hope it's just a blip. I dunno, glad this is all hypothetical (for now) and most models aren’t showing this. It doesn’t seem like we’re in danger of losing the whole set up. Most models still target our region. I think a large swath of our region gets 5+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Wasn't expecting that ^ @ers-wxman1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, frd said: @psuhoffman thoughts ? More spread? If we can’t get a good snow from that we can’t get a good snow 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: DT first crack... Looks a lot like the 12z op euro. Coincidentally I’m sure. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The 18z EPS is a banger. Has at least 8 members that stall 50-75 miles SE of OCMD 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: You got any of the priors for comparison? I gotta say I like that map. Implies a further south transfer and in my mind makes a capture more likely. But what the hell do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: DT first crack... Wow, aggressive 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Nice increase in the snowfall mean for DC. Over an 1” increase from 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Too good not to post twice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This is probably the last ensemble run worth paying much attention to. Almost NAM time! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 ^If that (DT's first look) verified it would lead to a very high NESIS number I would think. Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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