Rhino16 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I like. Mix seems better than pure rain, so okay. Is there any dry spot present anywhere towards the end, or is that south too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Over 7” in DC by 12z Monday at the end of the run. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 32 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Which is not so private anymore. Banter thread? over or under? 2 minutes before Mappy disappears this post. eta: Here at 1550’ in Augusta County nw of Staunton I am rooting for the models with a heavier waa front end thump. The coastal is sketchy for those of us south and west and counting on 6” over 30 hours doesn’t inspire much confidence. Over, but you included relevant weather stuff so I left it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: That’s actually a very fair distribution of snow. If anyone complains, They’re going into the snowhole. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z Euro running now. The front end waa thump is a bit further south. That’s great news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not sure I like the 18z euro. It’s dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Not sure I like the 18z euro. It’s dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping What's the potential cause or issue ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: That’s actually a very fair distribution of snow. If anyone complains, They’re going into the snowhole. It won't be there in 6 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 North of Baltimore needs the coastal. I’m pretty convinced most of the heavy WAA wave will get suppressed. It’s the same situation we’ve seen all year... that wave is weakening as it gets suppressed by the blocking. It’s got enough juice to get VA DC and lower MD good but up here I doubt we get more then a few inches from that. It’s coastal or bust. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Not sure I like the 18z euro. It’s dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping I’m ok right now. Need this to start ticking back N. Big ones almost always tick north as we get closer so we’ll see. It’s a fragile setup but idk I got good vibes rollin. Worst case I storm chase Lewis de lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not sure I like the 18z euro. It’s dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping Looks like best case for dc proper to get a fairly clean 6-12. Maybe it takes the biggest numbers and broadest area off the table but still a great run, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Negnao said: Looks like best case for dc proper to get a fairly clean 6-12. Maybe it takes the biggest numbers and broadest area off the table but still a great run, right? EPS should give us a good idea of this is a blip or a bigger concern. But that front end thump sure is solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not sure I like the 18z euro. It’s dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping The developing 850 mb low is just a touch south of 12z at the end of the run. Not sure it would end up that much different overall. Probably a little better for here with temps/p-type. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Negnao said: Looks like best case for dc proper to get a fairly clean 6-12. Maybe it takes the biggest numbers and broadest area off the table but still a great run, right? This run would crush DC. The CCB is developing right over them at 90 and pivoting. But I fear that run if continued was going to be disappointing for places north of Baltimore compared to last run. The low was suppressed pretty far SE this run. But I’d also be concerned with any further south shifts. I am not worried about north. Never have been. Never thought given the setup this could miss us north. Imo we’re either getting a big snow or it’s getting suppressed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: Wow, that looks amazing before the coastal even gets going. That run looks like it could have been epic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: North of Baltimore needs the coastal. I’m pretty convinced most of the heavy WAA wave will get suppressed. It’s the same situation we’ve seen all year... that wave is weakening as it gets suppressed by the blocking. It’s got enough juice to get VA DC and lower MD good but up here I doubt we get more then a few inches from that. It’s coastal or bust. It's funny that you always tend to completely unravel as we get close to an event, yet end up being the one who gets absolutely destroyed. 4 3 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: The developing 850 mb low is just a touch south of 12z at the end of the run. Not sure it would end up that much different overall. Probably a little better for here with temps/p-type. Maybe...but up here the coastal is even more critical because I doubt the WAA ends up being much this far north. I need that deform band to set to north because south will do a lot better from part 1. I suspect Sunday night DC could have 6-8” and I’ll be sitting on 2” of pixie dust up here waiting impatiently for that deform band to come north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This run would crush DC. The CCB is developing right over them at 90 and pivoting. But I fear that run if continued was going to be disappointing for places north of Baltimore compared to last run. The low was suppressed pretty far SE this run. But I’d also be concerned with any further south shifts. I am not worried about north. Never have been. Never thought given the setup this could miss us north. Imo we’re either getting a big snow or it’s getting suppressed. Dude, you know the CCB almost always forms further nw than progged. We have seen that countless times. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This run would crush DC. The CCB is developing right over them at 90 and pivoting. But I fear that run if continued was going to be disappointing for places north of Baltimore compared to last run. The low was suppressed pretty far SE this run. But I’d also be concerned with any further south shifts. I am not worried about north. Never have been. Never thought given the setup this could miss us north. Imo we’re either getting a big snow or it’s getting suppressed. Do you think the Richmond area is still squarely in the game? I appreciate all your detailed analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This run would crush DC. The CCB is developing right over them at 90 and pivoting. But I fear that run if continued was going to be disappointing for places north of Baltimore compared to last run. The low was suppressed pretty far SE this run. But I’d also be concerned with any further south shifts. I am not worried about north. Never have been. Never thought given the setup this could miss us north. Imo we’re either getting a big snow or it’s getting suppressed. Suppressed south of NOVA even? You have been saying suppression for a while now. I am not going to discount anything you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, snowfan said: Dude, you know the CCB almost always forms further nw than progged. We have seen that countless times. Yeah, despite how good the guidance looks for I-95 east, its either mixy or a dry slot, while N MD is getting wrecked. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The biggest issue is that lobe of confluence that is trending stronger recently, that’s the main culprit of the S trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: This run would crush DC. The CCB is developing right over them at 90 and pivoting. But I fear that run if continued was going to be disappointing for places north of Baltimore compared to last run. The low was suppressed pretty far SE this run. But I’d also be concerned with any further south shifts. I am not worried about north. Never have been. Never thought given the setup this could miss us north. Imo we’re either getting a big snow or it’s getting suppressed. Do you think we will get the last minute North trend that we get with most intenstifing systems. I am just as far north as you but much further west. My concern is if we are in the bullseye 3/ 4 days out it would be congrats state college by game time. That's basically what happened in December . Differnt situation without blocking back then but the north adjust 48 hours in is always on my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 28 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z also looks great at 90. Slightly mixy but the coastal transfer looks like it's already starting to paying dividends. That’s quite an encouraging panel for DC metro. I would think we get a bunch more snow after this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This run would crush DC. The CCB is developing right over them at 90 and pivoting. But I fear that run if continued was going to be disappointing for places north of Baltimore compared to last run. The low was suppressed pretty far SE this run. But I’d also be concerned with any further south shifts. I am not worried about north. Never have been. Never thought given the setup this could miss us north. Imo we’re either getting a big snow or it’s getting suppressed. It’s hard to ignore seasonal trends and yesterdays storm is certainly a prime example. And kudos to you for sticking to your guns. After 0z I was convinced this was a typical miller b screw job and we were going to have to watch nyc and Boston get clobbered. That was always my concern but they can’t like this run. Let’s hope it stays right where it is at 18z and I think all of us will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not sure I like the 18z euro. It’s dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping Making me nervous for 0z dude...It would be a fail of spectacular proportions (but one you warned was the main fail scenario: suppression). That's how some would get blanked, and others wouldn't get warning criteria. I hope it doesn't trend south again tonight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King George Dee Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Any forecasts for the Fredericksburg area? Last map shows 7 inches. Newbie still learning here by reading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Making me nervous for 0z dude...It would be a fail of spectacular proportions (but one you warned was the main fail scenario: suppression). That's how some would get blanked, and others wouldn't get warning criteria. I hope it doesn't trend south again tonight. If we’re picking our fail method I say let’s go suppression. We’ll hopefully still get something on the WAA, maybe just less, but at least it would be cold and wouldn’t melt right away. Just now, King George Dee said: Any forecasts for the Fredericksburg area? Last map shows 7 inches. Newbie still learning here by reading. If the 18z euro is right you’ll get a lot of snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: The biggest issue is that lobe of confluence that is trending stronger recently, that’s the main culprit of the S trend How many times has that happened this year? And isn’t it time for the eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: How many times has that happened this year? And isn’t it time for the eps? Hasn't started yet on WB. Seems late. What else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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