stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Thankfully, we know the GFS thermals are some straight up shit. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Total snow 10:1 at DCA - 10” hooray! Total depth change - 3” argh! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS full cave <3 GFS now shows more snow than Euro, for me at least. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 DC in double digits at 102 and still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 This is a little late, but I'm shocked nobody posted this. The GEPS totals at DCA are nutso. Strongest MECS support I've seen from any ensemble so far. I count 18/20 with 6"+ 9/20 with 10"+ by 12z Tues.... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: Total snow 10:1 at DCA - 10” hooray! Total depth change - 3” argh! Total reported: 2" 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Looking more, I see that the GFS is not as good for the cities, but it's def better for MoCo and Frederick lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: GFS full cave <3 GFS now shows more snow than Euro, for me at least. And take into account GFS’ whack thermals and its even better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 @Cashtown_Coop I am pretty sure State College will be well northwest of any bullseye. You are in the game...but I am even SLIGHTLY nervous about a suppressed outcome here. As usual, the GFS is adding more noise then it is helping. We would probably have a more accurate perception of what this storm is likely to do if the GFS simply didn't exist at all. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: And take into account GFS’ whack thermals and its even better. Yes all you gotta do is look at the 850 and 700 vorticyt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS insists on screwing the Shenandoah Valley. I get lucky I am JUST far enough north to get some love from the coastal. That model scares the crap out of me though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: Looking more, I see that the GFS is not as good for the cities, but it's def better for MoCo and Frederick lol. It's a foot plus on that run. We will manage. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: GFS torches again overnight Sun into Monday. 38 at the surface at DCA. we are going to have some takers for the 93 hour panel, though. Kinda similar to the Feb 2014 storm in that regard. There was a really awful lull waiting for the upper level energy to catch up and spark the deform banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: GFS full cave <3 GFS now shows more snow than Euro, for me at least. Yes but this is only with 10-1 snowfall or the Kuchera ratio without it the GFS givs 3 positive snow depth change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Kinda similar to the Feb 2014 storm in that regard. There was a really awful lull waiting for the upper level energy to catch up and spark the deform banding. Yeah it's gonna be nails when the first wave moves through and the radar looks sparse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 @stormtracker I know we're not allowed to post porn on here, but I'm sure you can make one exception..... 8 6 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Thankfully, we know the GFS thermals are some straight up shit. I think it will warm some in the dryslot when the lower levels lose saturation...but not to that extent. And temps will crash when the ccb gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: Check out that qpf in Central MD Here comes the JUICE! Loving these juicy 18z runs so far. Starting to see HECS type potential. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: This is a little late, but I'm shocked nobody posted this. The GEPS totals at DCA are nutso. Strongest MECS support I've seen from any ensemble so far. I count 18/20 with 6"+ 9/20 with 10"+ by 12z Tues.... Did the cmc ever update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GFS insists on screwing the Shenandoah Valley. I get lucky I am JUST far enough north to get some love from the coastal. That model scares the crap out of me though. It also insists on being wrong a whole lot too so you have that going for you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Models really honing in on two maxes, there’s that heavy spot in the ccb and also the fronto magic you see towards C Nj, placement of those two will wobble around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Did the cmc ever update? 12 hours or so to go at this point but this is the best map I've got... the next one brings it out to 240hrs so I don't think its worth sharing. Not super relevant to us but it nukes NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, nj2va said: And take into account GFS’ whack thermals and its even better. Verbatim that’s a lot of 33-34F rain for me with an isothermal profile from the surface to 800-850mb. If that’s a smidge colder with a euro or GGEM like temp profile... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: Seems fairly far off shore. Yes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Seems fairly far off shore. Yes? Seems to be heading towards a little less tucked in, kinda like the 12z EPS today. It's not really that far to the E, members jump around a lot from frame to frame. it's a smidge further west but more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 We need to Call Paul Kocin in to bring this one home and do some analysis 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 21 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: @stormtracker I know we're not allowed to post porn on here, but I'm sure you can make one exception..... Permission granted, have at it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Seems to be heading towards a little less tucked in, kinda like the 12z EPS today. It's not really that far to the E, members jump around a lot from frame to frame. it's a smidge further west but more consolidated. It will likely adjust to the euro more tucked solution thankfully 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 16 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Seems fairly far off shore. Yes? It’s west of the 12z gefs. Slightly better ccb into N VA. Also...often with a capture the slp elongates with a double barrel or inverted trough type feature towards the coast. The lowest pressure might be to the east but the Max to the west is typically the one that matters. The mean can be misleading. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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