MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ll be good when @MillvilleWx comes in here and tells me that this is what that low would do from where the NAM left it LOL I was just peeking at the 3H level to see the jet structure. On the last panel, you can see the increased ridging downstream as the upstream trough amplifies. The SLP will nestle right inside the right entrance region of the jet, so the low center in NC would likely move N to NNE for a period, but as the trough axis goes negative and the 5H low cuts SE into WV/VA, that's when you'll see the surface reflection hit the brakes and get pulled back towards the coast. It's something the Euro has outlined pretty well for last few days. GFS was too progressive in nature with the trough, allowing the low to be further out to sea before getting pulled back as trough went negative late. So, if you drew a line from the low center, draw it NNE up off Wallops, then cut west, drift, then slide ENE. That's a favorable motion for this type of setup. 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 36 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Nam 12 looks pretty good through 84. Solid WAA with the primary running out of gas over KY. Looks like it would have been a healthy transfer to the coastal. Good lord I hope this model is right for once 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 ICON started to finally cave to the Euro....It will match it by 12z tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Icon is stationary just S of Rehoboth beach for 12 hours. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 29 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Part of the final episode is on Youtube, with the February '95 snowstorm bearing down on us: Final A.M. Weather (Part 1) - YouTube The famous hi-tech yellow pointer! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: ICON started to finally cave to the Euro....It will match it by 12z tomorrow.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 LWX through 7pm Sun. We are still watching the opening credits at this time.... 9 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Pretty wild that Sterling has 4-6" by 7pm Sunday... but have yet to move this to moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 RGEM shifted a bit south too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The upper low is in the process of capture on both the NAM and RGEM...the low is likely to move NNE then tuck NNW a bit from there and end up just east of the Delmarva. You can see the weakness to the north in the isobars, especially on the RGEM but its hinted on the NAM also. 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The upper low is in the process of capture on both the NAM and RGEM...the low is likely to move NNE then tuck NNW a bit from there and end up just east of the Delmarva. You can see the weakness to the north in the isobars, especially on the RGEM but its hinted on the NAM also. What does that mean for us around I-95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The upper low is in the process of capture on both the NAM and RGEM...the low is likely to move NNE then tuck NNW a bit from there and end up just east of the Delmarva. You can see the weakness to the north in the isobars, especially on the RGEM but its hinted on the NAM also. I have a feeling that between now and Saturday night, we are going to see some wild solutions. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro numbers from 2 days ago pop up. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Ya'll are amateurs at worrying about the fringe. I will be all over it when a bad run comes out we need to worry about a good ol fringing. NAM/RGEM both looked good. If you look at the h5 on the NAM, its closed, amplifying, and headed right for VA. It's maybe even better then the h5 look on the euro at the same time. The low is at the same spot. That is going to capture and tuck just east of OC. Both NAM/RGEM would have been really good runs if they continued. Probably very close to the euro, maybe even a slightly quicker capture and tuck which is good. 4 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The upper low is in the process of capture on both the NAM and RGEM...the low is likely to move NNE then tuck NNW a bit from there and end up just east of the Delmarva. You can see the weakness to the north in the isobars, especially on the RGEM but its hinted on the NAM also. @psuhoffman Do you think based on the modeling today Eastern areas can see a mostly snow event ? I realize we still have some time to go, but would appreciate any insights, thanks ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I have a feeling that between now and Saturday night, we are going to see some wild solutions. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro numbers from 2 days ago pop up. If that deform band actually does setup right over us and stall for 18 hours like that yes we will. That band will juice up some imo and the ratios under that will be very high. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Surprised nobody posted the RGEM. Looks pretty good. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Nice front end thump on 18z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, frd said: @psuhoffman Do you think based on the modeling today Eastern areas can see a mostly snow event ? I realize we still have some time to go, but would appreciate any insights, thanks ! east of the bay is gonna be tough...when the low gets captured off the delmarva thats a long time under an easterly fetch. But I think its likely you get a nice WAA thump and then can catch some of the CCB if the storm slides more east then NE at the end. But I kinda doubt it stays totally 100% snow over there. But it rarely does even in the big ones. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Low in Indiana vs Ohio. Much better spot for the handoff... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Hopefully we can do better than the 4" in VA beach today 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Another step towards the euro. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS torches again overnight Sun into Monday. 38 at the surface at DCA. we are going to have some takers for the 93 hour panel, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS trying...maybe by Tuesday it'll get onboard. Nice look dark blue from DC N and W at 96 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 850 low definitely further south this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 There we go! 18z Monday. Central MD death band? eta: GFS seem to be continuing to bow to the king... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS goes boom at hour 96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_K76 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Any hope for RVA area seeing major snow.. or is that quickly dwindling lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS trying...maybe by Tuesday it'll get onboard. Nice look dark blue from DC N and W at 96 By happy hour Sunday the GFS will be honking lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Check out that qpf in Central MD 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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