WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: I like seeing that L south of hatteras. Just crawl due N baby. Or even NNW 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDSnowyWxTracker Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: Based on the 84 HR NAM at z500 the confluence is about to push the low due NE instead of tucking it in. Yeah that is what I am seeing too. Looks like a potential fringe some of the north and western crews. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Nam 12 looks pretty good through 84. Solid WAA with the primary running out of gas over KY. Looks like it would have been a healthy transfer to the coastal. 16 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 It's a great transfer location for DC. If more confluence means the Euro jackpot moves from SE PA to NOVA, then I am all for the confluence. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: It's a great transfer location for DC. If more confluence means the Euro jackpot moves from SE PA to NOVA, then I am all for the confluence. Wasn't the NAM one of the first models to sniff out that the mid Dec storm would be further NW, even at 84? Not saying that'll hold, but it can sniff stuff out pretty well 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 What happens when everything starts to stack up like that? The 850, 700, and 500 closed lows are coming into almost perfect alignment. Typical or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: What happens when everything starts to stack up like that? The 850, 700, and 500 closed lows are coming into almost perfect alignment. Typical or no? Captures the low and then basically occludes I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Captures the low and then basically occludes I think. That’s exactly what I was thinking. I would think stalls as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Not fully transferred yet but closed. You would think that has to crawl north. Looks pretty good to me. Can’t wait to hear other thoughts on this. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Heavy snow area expanded south of DC. LFG. 6 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 My thought is everyone should step away from their phones and computers, do a quick check of the 18z euro/eps around 830pm, and otherwise get ready for the snowstorm. 9 6 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Not fully transferred yet but closed. You would think that has to crawl north. Looks pretty good to me. Can’t wait to hear other thoughts on this. Could this be a rare miller b where New England is smoking cirrus while the DC crew is getting cold smoked?? 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 29 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said: Further back in the day (starting in late 1970s) was A.M. Weather. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/A.M._Weather Part of the final episode is on Youtube, with the February '95 snowstorm bearing down on us: Final A.M. Weather (Part 1) - YouTube 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not fully transferred yet but closed. You would think that has to crawl north. Looks pretty good to me. Can’t wait to hear other thoughts on this. Yeah, that was I was confused about the posts saying it was going to not go north, but out to sea. Not sure what they were looking at. Euro h5 was about the same and it came north before being pushed SE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Could this be a rare miller b where New England is smoking cirrus while the DC crew is getting cold smoked?? I don’t know. This is where I need somebody with more knowledge to come in here and lay out what probably would happen from this point forward give the conditions the NAM just laid out. I’ve got this image in my mind where this thing heads to somewhere between Norfolk and Ocean City and just sits there. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Could this be a rare miller b where New England is smoking cirrus while the DC crew is getting cold smoked?? Going out a bit on a limb here, but the evolution seems rather similar to March 5 2013. It's been one of the higher rated analogs too, and that was one where the lp developed basically off of VA beach iirc and basically stalled. Obviously we absolutely hate that storm in retrospect (well at least most of us), but that airmass was pathetic. Saranac Lake was high 40s/low 50s as a high nearing in. Can't imagine that setup failing even just half a month prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Going out a bit on a limb here, but the evolution seems rather similar to March 5 2013. It's been one of the higher rated analogs too, and that was one where the lp developed basically off of VA beach iirc and basically stalled. Obviously we absolutely hate that storm in retrospect (well at least most of us), but that airmass was pathetic. Saranac Lake was high 40s/low 50s as a high nearing in. Can't imagine that setup failing even just half a month prior. I was thinking just earlier that this storm is very similar to that one. Only in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 15 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Wasn't the NAM one of the first models to sniff out that the mid Dec storm would be further NW, even at 84? Not saying that'll hold, but it can sniff stuff out pretty well It also "sniffed" and held until onset that I would get 3-4" on the one earlier this week. I got .5" of slush so it can swing and miss pretty well too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s exactly what I was thinking. I would think stalls as well. 10 minutes ago, nj2va said: Captures the low and then basically occludes I think. This is correct. This actually happens with a lot of the blockbuster events that just "snow themselves out" before slowly trekking east out into the Atlantic. One of the classic cases was Feb 2013 in New England. Once it stacked, the storm slowly pulled due eastward, but it strengthened up until the 5H low tucked under Cape Cod. That's when cyclones reach full maturity. It's also a good time to look for TROWALS that can enhance snowfall on their way out. 5 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I agree with millvile here. I was reading the wrong panel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: This is correct. This actually happens with a lot of the blockbuster events that just "snow themselves out" before slowly trekking east out into the Atlantic. One of the classic cases was Feb 2013 in New England. Once it stacked, the storm slowly pulled due eastward, but it strengthened up until the 5H low tucked under Cape Cod. That's when cyclones reach full maturity. It's also a good time to look for TROWALS that can enhance snowfall on their way out. Could you elaborate a bit more on what occlusion is? (unless it's what you just explained, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 NAM wouldn’t head East out to sea from 84. Has a very similar look to the euro & ukie at 500 and h5. Would likely head North and then ENE until it closes itself off and snows itself into a coma. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I was thinking just earlier that this storm is very similar to that one. Only in January Folks near where you are did super well, probably because the initial WAA actually did enough to keep snowpack and to prevent any big warmup by daybreak. Was just reading back through the old thread and the ULL pass was a thing of beauty, just that it was too far south. Also the screwjob zone ended up being NE of Baltimore through NYC, which isn't exactly similar to how this might pan out I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 That’s a NAM’ing 84 and beyond for 90% of the sub 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: Folks near where you are did super well, probably because the initial WAA actually did enough to keep snowpack and to prevent any big warmup by daybreak. Was just reading back through the old thread and the ULL pass was a thing of beauty, just that it was too far south. Also the screwjob zone ended up being NE of Baltimore through NYC, which isn't exactly similar to how this might pan out I don't think. Agreed. Most likely screw zone would be NW zones. Caught between a dying primary and a developing coastal. That vort is going to be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Could you elaborate a bit more on what occlusion is? (unless it's what you just explained, lol) Occlusion is when the cold conveyor belt (CCB) catches up to the warm conveyor belt (WCB), or for a lack of better terms, when the cold front on the base of a low wraps up to the warm frontal boundary. Occlusions are the peak maturity of a baroclinic cyclone. Storms that vertically stack reach occlusion phase and move at a slower pace. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I’ll be good when @MillvilleWx comes in here and tells me that this is what that low would do from where the NAM left it LOL 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 18z ICON definitely ticked south towards NAM/Euro Solution through 96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Was going to say, ICON tried its best. Bless its heart... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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