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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


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Just now, nj2va said:

It's a great transfer location for DC.  If more confluence means the Euro jackpot moves from SE PA to NOVA, then I am all for the confluence.

Wasn't the NAM one of the first models to sniff out that the mid Dec storm would be further NW, even at 84? Not saying that'll hold, but it can sniff stuff out pretty well :ph34r:

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

F23866C1-051A-40BA-8CA7-0BDB9ED9F445.thumb.jpeg.213c76e7910e38c597f3207d8b4f8499.jpegNot fully transferred yet but closed. You would think that has to crawl north. Looks pretty good to me. Can’t wait to hear other thoughts on this.

Yeah, that was I was confused about the posts saying it was going to not go north, but out to sea.  Not sure what they were looking at.   Euro h5 was about the same and it came north before being pushed SE

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Could this be a rare miller b where New England is smoking cirrus while the DC crew is getting cold smoked??

I don’t know. This is where I need somebody with more knowledge to come in here and lay out what probably would happen from this point forward give the conditions the NAM just laid out. I’ve got this image in my mind where this thing heads to somewhere between Norfolk and Ocean City and just sits there.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Could this be a rare miller b where New England is smoking cirrus while the DC crew is getting cold smoked??

Going out a bit on a limb here, but the evolution seems rather similar to March 5 2013. It's been one of the higher rated analogs too, and that was one where the lp developed basically off of VA beach iirc and basically stalled. Obviously we absolutely hate that storm in retrospect (well at least most of us), but that airmass was pathetic. Saranac Lake was high 40s/low 50s as a high nearing in. Can't imagine that setup failing even just half a month prior. 

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Going out a bit on a limb here, but the evolution seems rather similar to March 5 2013. It's been one of the higher rated analogs too, and that was one where the lp developed basically off of VA beach iirc and basically stalled. Obviously we absolutely hate that storm in retrospect (well at least most of us), but that airmass was pathetic. Saranac Lake was high 40s/low 50s as a high nearing in. Can't imagine that setup failing even just half a month prior. 

I was thinking just earlier that this storm is very similar to that one. Only in January 

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15 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Wasn't the NAM one of the first models to sniff out that the mid Dec storm would be further NW, even at 84? Not saying that'll hold, but it can sniff stuff out pretty well :ph34r:

It also "sniffed" and held until onset that I would get 3-4" on the one earlier this week. I got .5" of slush so it can swing and miss pretty well too

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s exactly what I was thinking. I would think stalls as well.

 

10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Captures the low and then basically occludes I think.

This is correct. This actually happens with a lot of the blockbuster events that just "snow themselves out" before slowly trekking east out into the Atlantic. One of the classic cases was Feb 2013 in New England. Once it stacked, the storm slowly pulled due eastward, but it strengthened up until the 5H low tucked under Cape Cod. That's when cyclones reach full maturity. It's also a good time to look for TROWALS that can enhance snowfall on their way out. 

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

 

This is correct. This actually happens with a lot of the blockbuster events that just "snow themselves out" before slowly trekking east out into the Atlantic. One of the classic cases was Feb 2013 in New England. Once it stacked, the storm slowly pulled due eastward, but it strengthened up until the 5H low tucked under Cape Cod. That's when cyclones reach full maturity. It's also a good time to look for TROWALS that can enhance snowfall on their way out. 

Could you elaborate a bit more on what occlusion is? (unless it's what you just explained, lol)

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I was thinking just earlier that this storm is very similar to that one. Only in January 

Folks near where you are did super well, probably because the initial WAA actually did enough to keep snowpack and to prevent any big warmup by daybreak. Was just reading back through the old thread and the ULL pass was a thing of beauty, just that it was too far south. Also the screwjob zone ended up being NE of Baltimore through NYC, which isn't exactly similar to how this might pan out I don't think. 

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Just now, Cobalt said:

Folks near where you are did super well, probably because the initial WAA actually did enough to keep snowpack and to prevent any big warmup by daybreak. Was just reading back through the old thread and the ULL pass was a thing of beauty, just that it was too far south. Also the screwjob zone ended up being NE of Baltimore through NYC, which isn't exactly similar to how this might pan out I don't think. 

Agreed. Most likely screw zone would be NW zones. Caught between a dying primary and a developing coastal. That vort is going to be key. 

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Could you elaborate a bit more on what occlusion is? (unless it's what you just explained, lol)

Occlusion is when the cold conveyor belt (CCB) catches up to the warm conveyor belt (WCB), or for a lack of better terms, when the cold front on the base of a low wraps up to the warm frontal boundary. Occlusions are the peak maturity of a baroclinic cyclone. Storms that vertically stack reach occlusion phase and move at a slower pace.

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