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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


stormtracker
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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I think a lot of it depends on the ULL passing through and it's strength and intensity. PSU has mentioned the nuts ratios from a similar Miller B in Feb 9-10 2010, but I think that was cold smoke too with temps in the teens up there.

It may have dipped into the high teens for a short time. Mostly in the 20's during that Wednesday afternoon. Temps rose into high 20's as soon as best shows diminished in the evening.

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36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS mean

EPSsnowfall.thumb.png.7382c6b29405ecee4bda9d1206cb154a.png

The totals are muted some by 11/50 members by my count that are suppressed.  I only count a few members that miss DC to the north with heavy snow.  So this is a VERY good spot to be right now...but still...suppressed is the bigger threat then north.  If we ignored the GFS completely that would probably be more apparent lol.  And again...I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUPPRESSED...just saying if it somehow falls apart thats the way.  This isn't cutting.  

One thing I like about this mean for the Richmond area is that it's basically the exact same as the operational. Leaves room for improvement down this way.

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely 20s for Feb 10,2010  . I actually didnt mind the 12z  colder Euro solution . And being late January a steady snow will accumulate anytime of day and not to mention coming off 3 cold days prior . Surface is primed for stickage  baby !!

Euro is pretty much locked in. Just a matter a few details working themselves out. Looks good.  Every major ensemble mean has us around 10 inches. Can't ask for much more at this point  

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2 minutes ago, Buffalo Transplant said:

So a quick question - I would think this is more of a scenic storm?  I would think that 10 inches or so over a 24-36 hour time frame would be manageable for road crews down here.  How about the winds - any latest wind maps?  Thanks for all the great insight.

Down this way, 10 inches over any period of time will cause road issues. 

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Just now, Imgoinhungry said:

Will glady take it, but totals seem light.  Are we worried that the low will move further east off the coast in future runs?  Seemed like a pretty significant move from prior runs.

I don't think east is a real concern for us. There haven't been a lot of model runs showing the coastal forming too far east.  My concern is  something like last night's Euro or this mornings ICON where the coastal doesn't get its act together in time for us which is typically how we fail in a Miller B.

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17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely 20s for Feb 10,2010  . I actually didnt mind the 12z  colder Euro solution . And being late January a steady snow will accumulate anytime of day and not to mention coming off 3 cold days prior . Surface is primed for stickage  baby !!

Which one that season was it that lasted over 30 hours to near 40 but was never heavy but steady light to moderate?

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

LWX AFD should be a fun read IMO... and no, no watches till tomorrow's afternoon package most likely

The old 3:30pm update. Back in the day before the Internet took off, you'd run home from the bus stop and flip on the Local on the 8s and anxiously wait for the watch to pop up on the crawl.

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The old 3:30pm update. Back in the day before the Internet took off, you'd run home from the bus stop and flip on the Local on the 8s and anxiously wait for the watch to pop up on the crawl.

Omg that’s so true. Unfortunately I remember the March 2001 one because the hoisted that pretty early 

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The old 3:30pm update. Back in the day before the Internet took off, you'd run home from the bus stop and flip on the Local on the 8s and anxiously wait for the watch to pop up on the crawl.

Further back in the day (starting in late 1970s) was A.M. Weather. 
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/A.M._Weather

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Looks like we were about to get NAM'd.   Looks like  a more solid precip shield too.   Pretty good match to the Euro

Like to see the 850 and surface pressure map at 84 but it looks good and looks like we have a full transfer to off the outer banks by 84

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Key piece N of Lake Ontario is trending stronger and diving S if not.slightly W of South pressing on the confluence and moving things S.

To me that could usher in a path for it to transfer and keep scooting east. I don’t understand it fully but I want whatever will tug it back and stall it

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