HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I think a lot of it depends on the ULL passing through and it's strength and intensity. PSU has mentioned the nuts ratios from a similar Miller B in Feb 9-10 2010, but I think that was cold smoke too with temps in the teens up there. It may have dipped into the high teens for a short time. Mostly in the 20's during that Wednesday afternoon. Temps rose into high 20's as soon as best shows diminished in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS mean The totals are muted some by 11/50 members by my count that are suppressed. I only count a few members that miss DC to the north with heavy snow. So this is a VERY good spot to be right now...but still...suppressed is the bigger threat then north. If we ignored the GFS completely that would probably be more apparent lol. And again...I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUPPRESSED...just saying if it somehow falls apart thats the way. This isn't cutting. One thing I like about this mean for the Richmond area is that it's basically the exact same as the operational. Leaves room for improvement down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Definitely 20s for Feb 10,2010 . I actually didnt mind the 12z colder Euro solution . And being late January a steady snow will accumulate anytime of day and not to mention coming off 3 cold days prior . Surface is primed for stickage baby !! Euro is pretty much locked in. Just a matter a few details working themselves out. Looks good. Every major ensemble mean has us around 10 inches. Can't ask for much more at this point 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 LWX AFD should be a fun read IMO... and no, no watches till tomorrow's afternoon package most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 So a quick question - I would think this is more of a scenic storm? I would think that 10 inches or so over a 24-36 hour time frame would be manageable for road crews down here. How about the winds - any latest wind maps? Thanks for all the great insight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Will glady take it, but totals seem light. Are we worried that the low will move further east off the coast in future runs? Seemed like a pretty significant move from prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Excited for LWX to hoist a Scenic Storm Watch. 3 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Buffalo Transplant said: So a quick question - I would think this is more of a scenic storm? I would think that 10 inches or so over a 24-36 hour time frame would be manageable for road crews down here. How about the winds - any latest wind maps? Thanks for all the great insight. Down this way, 10 inches over any period of time will cause road issues. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: Yeah, you overestimate us. Haha - I don't overestimate you but the actual residents that make it hard to make it manageable! Buffalo guy here knows what is and isn't manageable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Imgoinhungry said: Will glady take it, but totals seem light. Are we worried that the low will move further east off the coast in future runs? Seemed like a pretty significant move from prior runs. I don't think east is a real concern for us. There haven't been a lot of model runs showing the coastal forming too far east. My concern is something like last night's Euro or this mornings ICON where the coastal doesn't get its act together in time for us which is typically how we fail in a Miller B. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Definitely 20s for Feb 10,2010 . I actually didnt mind the 12z colder Euro solution . And being late January a steady snow will accumulate anytime of day and not to mention coming off 3 cold days prior . Surface is primed for stickage baby !! Which one that season was it that lasted over 30 hours to near 40 but was never heavy but steady light to moderate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: LWX AFD should be a fun read IMO... and no, no watches till tomorrow's afternoon package most likely The old 3:30pm update. Back in the day before the Internet took off, you'd run home from the bus stop and flip on the Local on the 8s and anxiously wait for the watch to pop up on the crawl. 18 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Down this way, 10 flakes over any period of time will cause road issues. fixed 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The old 3:30pm update. Back in the day before the Internet took off, you'd run home from the bus stop and flip on the Local on the 8s and anxiously wait for the watch to pop up on the crawl. Omg that’s so true. Unfortunately I remember the March 2001 one because the hoisted that pretty early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The old 3:30pm update. Back in the day before the Internet took off, you'd run home from the bus stop and flip on the Local on the 8s and anxiously wait for the watch to pop up on the crawl. Further back in the day (starting in late 1970s) was A.M. Weather. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/A.M._Weather 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 NAM at 60 weaker and further South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 It's NAM time ladies and gents! 18z shows WAA precip creeping up into central VA/ the southwest reaches of metro DC by 12z sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 NAM South, with Moderate to heavy snow breaking out in VA at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 lol the NAM is at least 50 miles S with the primary and 2 mb weaker over KY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 If the NAM shows more confluence, which presently it might be going towards, do we consider it or just view it as the NAM at range ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 nam would have been supressed if it had run out to 144 hours. Confluence is worse than the euro. DC would have jackpotted this run. @psuhoffman fringed. Seem about right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, SnowLover22 said: nam would have been supressed if it had run out to 144 hours. Confluence is worse than the euro. DC would have jackpotted this run. @psuhoffman fringed. Seem about right? Nam has the look of a big hit incoming. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Looks like we were about to get NAM'd. Looks like a more solid precip shield too. Pretty good match to the Euro 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I KNOW - It’s the Nam at 84hrs, but it looked pretty damn good to these weenie eyes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Key piece N of Lake Ontario is trending stronger and diving S if not.slightly W of South pressing on the confluence and moving things S. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Looks like we were about to get NAM'd. Looks like a more solid precip shield too. Pretty good match to the Euro Like to see the 850 and surface pressure map at 84 but it looks good and looks like we have a full transfer to off the outer banks by 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Based on the 84 HR NAM at z500 the confluence is about to push the low due NE instead of tucking it in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I like seeing that L south of hatteras. Just crawl due N baby. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Key piece N of Lake Ontario is trending stronger and diving S if not.slightly W of South pressing on the confluence and moving things S. To me that could usher in a path for it to transfer and keep scooting east. I don’t understand it fully but I want whatever will tug it back and stall it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 FWIW NAM 84 Hours 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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