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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


stormtracker
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Just now, Ji said:

I didn't do very well in that storm...maybe 3-4"....mixing and dryslot....you did much better....That's the storm that DT said had no chance to go north based on physics and it gave Boston like 20"...lol

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29 minutes ago, Ji said:

sounds like we are going to have to endure a light to moderate eternal event.....based on the way winter has gone since our Jan 2019 storm..well take?

The snow under that slowly decaying deform band will be heavier then qpf panels would indicate.  Usually get nice dendrites in that band.  Fluffy stuff.  Even if its only moderate it will "seem" heavier.  

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Just now, Deck Pic said:

I didn't do very well in that storm...maybe 3-4"....mixing and dryslot....you did much better....That's the storm that DT said had no chance to go north based on physics and it gave Boston like 20"...lol

they had cantore at Dulles airport waiting the arrival of part 2 of the storm. It came but wasnt nearly as much as they thought. 

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14 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

It honestly sucks that we'll probably not get a chance to see the 12z Canadian surface maps because it looked strikingly similar, probably would've painted a similar picture wrt snowfall totals. Once the mesos get in range things will get real. 

If I can get a hold of the CMC hi res maps, I'll post them....right now some data issue I guess

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

they had cantore at Dulles airport waiting the arrival of part 2 of the storm. It came but wasnt nearly as much as they thought. 

It was a WWA for part 1 and WSW for part 2. Part 1 overperformed with some of the densest snow I’ve ever shoveled. Part 2 underperformed as you noted but still nicely freshened up the snow cover. 

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

yikes the surface maps are very similar no? i think Dulles got 9-10 inches from this but there was a day of non stop snizzle which was awesome

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03-SurfaceMaps.html

similar evolution but this has much more cold air in front...which would argue for a further south eventual outcome with the coastal.  90% of our snow was from the WAA in that 2003 event.  

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24 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Weird storm. Not sure I've ever experienced something like this. A coastal storm that last forever but never snows hard, or really even moderately for a long period of time. You would think the totals would be obscene from a deform that lasts so long. Is there a reason this has so little significant precipitation with it? Maybe it will juice up? Also pretty obvious that a very small area is likely to jackpot with 20+ and everyone else is probably looking at a general 8-14.

Should Probably not be using ensembles 72+ hours out for minute details on QPF / Bending setup. Mesos will catch up with actual QPF totals. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

similar evolution but this has much more cold air in front...which would argue for a further south eventual outcome with the coastal.  90% of our snow was from the WAA in that 2003 event.  

lol--this was before i knew about Miller B---but the part 2 severely underperformed at Dulles and Cantore was sitting there trying to explain it away

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25 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Weird storm. Not sure I've ever experienced something like this. A coastal storm that last forever but never snows hard, or really even moderately for a long period of time. You would think the totals would be obscene from a deform that lasts so long. Is there a reason this has so little significant precipitation with it? Maybe it will juice up? Also pretty obvious that a very small area is likely to jackpot with 20+ and everyone else is probably looking at a general 8-14.

Precip will ramp up closer we get. Usually does with the.mesos

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Just now, MDSnowyWxTracker said:

Also coastal seems to be a bit east messes cuts off Washington County and Frederick with the banding.  Still gives us a healthy amount though, just not as good

 

Nothing to sweat at the point. Heavier amounts to the east and west of us. 

Probably just an anomaly at this point. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

similar evolution but this has much more cold air in front...which would argue for a further south eventual outcome with the coastal.  90% of our snow was from the WAA in that 2003 event.  

Did quite well in Reisterstown with that storm. Round 1 was heavy and dumped 6 inches. I think parts of Howard County got 7-8. Then some drizzle during the lull. Atmosphere cooled back down quickly and by evening there was on and off light snow with occasional heavier burst during the lull. Picked up maybe another inch or so.  Round 2 started in earnest after midnight and lasted until mid-morning dumping another 5-6. I was just far enough north to get in decently in round 2. 

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