Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: I didn't do very well in that storm...maybe 3-4"....mixing and dryslot....you did much better....That's the storm that DT said had no chance to go north based on physics and it gave Boston like 20"...lol they had cantore at Dulles airport waiting the arrival of part 2 of the storm. It came but wasnt nearly as much as they thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollenwiese Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, EB89 said: What’s with the hole over Frederick? LOL that's what I was wondering! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Assuming it follows a similar path, when it gets into range the NAM is bound to have a run with some fun looking insane totals. Should be entertaining at least. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ovechkin said: Assuming it follows a similar path, when it gets into range the NAM is bound to have a run with some fun looking insane totals. Should be entertaining at least. Fully expecting to see a 24-30" NAMing somewhere...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDSnowyWxTracker Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, EB89 said: What’s with the hole over Frederick? Yeah I was noticing that too. From trajectory of the WAA event kind of missing us a little and the coastal taking over, we miss some of the good stuff as it dryslots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: they had cantore at Dulles airport waiting the arrival of part 2 of the storm. It came but wasnt nearly as much as they thought. It was a WWA for part 1 and WSW for part 2. Part 1 overperformed with some of the densest snow I’ve ever shoveled. Part 2 underperformed as you noted but still nicely freshened up the snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, EB89 said: What’s with the hole over Frederick? My fault 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Looks like LWX is going with likely pops starting Sunday now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: yikes the surface maps are very similar no? i think Dulles got 9-10 inches from this but there was a day of non stop snizzle which was awesome http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03-SurfaceMaps.html similar evolution but this has much more cold air in front...which would argue for a further south eventual outcome with the coastal. 90% of our snow was from the WAA in that 2003 event. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like LWX is going with likely pops starting Sunday now. Watches by tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDSnowyWxTracker Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Also coastal seems to be a bit east messes cuts off Washington County and Frederick with the banding. Still gives us a healthy amount though, just not as good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like LWX is going with likely pops starting Sunday now. They've had likely pops since last night for Sunday into Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 24 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Weird storm. Not sure I've ever experienced something like this. A coastal storm that last forever but never snows hard, or really even moderately for a long period of time. You would think the totals would be obscene from a deform that lasts so long. Is there a reason this has so little significant precipitation with it? Maybe it will juice up? Also pretty obvious that a very small area is likely to jackpot with 20+ and everyone else is probably looking at a general 8-14. Should Probably not be using ensembles 72+ hours out for minute details on QPF / Bending setup. Mesos will catch up with actual QPF totals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: similar evolution but this has much more cold air in front...which would argue for a further south eventual outcome with the coastal. 90% of our snow was from the WAA in that 2003 event. lol--this was before i knew about Miller B---but the part 2 severely underperformed at Dulles and Cantore was sitting there trying to explain it away 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 25 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Weird storm. Not sure I've ever experienced something like this. A coastal storm that last forever but never snows hard, or really even moderately for a long period of time. You would think the totals would be obscene from a deform that lasts so long. Is there a reason this has so little significant precipitation with it? Maybe it will juice up? Also pretty obvious that a very small area is likely to jackpot with 20+ and everyone else is probably looking at a general 8-14. Precip will ramp up closer we get. Usually does with the.mesos 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Precip will ramp up closer we get. Usually does with the.mesos Looking forward to that first NAMing! Should be a lot of fun in here with some jacked up QPFs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 classic. Wooof. 10 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, MDSnowyWxTracker said: Also coastal seems to be a bit east messes cuts off Washington County and Frederick with the banding. Still gives us a healthy amount though, just not as good Nothing to sweat at the point. Heavier amounts to the east and west of us. Probably just an anomaly at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: You mean this one? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03.html That is uncanny actually. Look at the surface maps not just the upper air maps. Crazy similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: classic. Wooof. Dat cluster is niiiice. CC: @ers-wxman1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: similar evolution but this has much more cold air in front...which would argue for a further south eventual outcome with the coastal. 90% of our snow was from the WAA in that 2003 event. Did quite well in Reisterstown with that storm. Round 1 was heavy and dumped 6 inches. I think parts of Howard County got 7-8. Then some drizzle during the lull. Atmosphere cooled back down quickly and by evening there was on and off light snow with occasional heavier burst during the lull. Picked up maybe another inch or so. Round 2 started in earnest after midnight and lasted until mid-morning dumping another 5-6. I was just far enough north to get in decently in round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: classic. Wooof. Damn. Woof. If that is the last run we focus on ensembles, then it went out with a bang 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: Damn. Woof. If that is the last run we focus on ensembles, then it went out with a bang I'd still consider the ensemble guidance until we're inside HR 60. Once you get inside that, the ENS just cluster. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, yoda said: They've had likely pops since last night for Sunday into Monday would think after these 12Z runs, LWX should be bumping up the threat from ENH to MOD soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Euro ENS mean...pretty tasty and allays some concerns about north trend... 10:1 The EPS bullseyes our area...so its a very good run...but it definitely backed off on intensity a bit so the top end potential came down some. But were still talking a 12"+ type storm possibly here in the max zone...but the crazy ridiculous 20" or even 30" idea is fading a bit. NOT saying that is unexpected and I definitely take what it is selling. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, MDSnowyWxTracker said: Yeah I was noticing that too. From trajectory of the WAA event kind of missing us a little and the coastal taking over, we miss some of the good stuff as it dryslots Same thing the GFS does to my area. Someone is gonna get screwed by the dryslot and transfer. I just hope it's south of our subforum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDSnowyWxTracker Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Nothing to sweat at the point. Heavier amounts to the east and west of us. Probably just an anomaly at this point. No, I agree at this point it is still seems like a bounce here or there not changing the actually trajectory or event for that matter. So keep watching. I am still happy with at least 10in of snow just envious of those getting 2feet. But yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 EPS mean The totals are muted some by 11/50 members by my count that are suppressed. I only count a few members that miss DC to the north with heavy snow. So this is a VERY good spot to be right now...but still...suppressed is the bigger threat then north. If we ignored the GFS completely that would probably be more apparent lol. And again...I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUPPRESSED...just saying if it somehow falls apart thats the way. This isn't cutting. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The EPS bullseyes our area...so its a very good run...but it definitely backed off on intensity a bit so the top end potential came down some. But were still talking a 12"+ type storm possibly here in the max zone...but the crazy ridiculous 20" or even 30" idea is fading a bit. NOT saying that is unexpected and I definitely take what it is selling. The control (and the mean to an extent) look strikingly similar to Feb 2006, even to the extent of the max snowfall area near NYC. How was that setup similar to this? It's been one of the top analogs for a little bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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