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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


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We’ll see what EPS says, but this seems pretty locked in. These run to run differences are fairly minor. Details to nitpick for the next 48hrs are thermal profiles and total precip amounts. But we have the broad strokes. 3-6” WAA snow Sunday. Probably 3-6” in the CCB for points north of DC, maybe north of EZF. Wild card is the transition time from around 0z-12z Monday. Is that mixy or light snow or mostly nothing?

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The 500 and 850 low pass is textbook for a solid warning criteria snowfall for IAD, DCA, and BWI. Beautiful.

 

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Hard to argue against this

 

I was watching the evolution of the 85H, 7H, and 5H lows and I was in awe in the synchronous movement and precise placement that is necessary for a regionwide storm of this caliber. The best was the 7H low maturation as it sunk under us then strengthened as it pivoted over Quantico into the Atlantic. 7H and 85H wind field suggests a deformation type axis along a thermal gradient placed between Baltimore to Philly with 40 miles on either side. You can see with the precip enhancement on the 6hr QPF panels between 21z Monday and 12z Tuesday. It was an absolute thing of beauty. The physical properties of the lift with the temps verbatim would be a dendrite fest for just about everyone Monday night as the CCB pivots and gracefully moves to the NE. It's a textbook case of mid-latitude cyclogenesis and occlusion. 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We’ll see what EPS says, but this seems pretty locked in. These run to run differences are fairly minor. Details to nitpick for the next 48hrs are thermal profiles and total precip amounts. But we have the broad strokes. 3-6” WAA snow Sunday. Probably 3-6” in the CCB for points north of DC, maybe north of EZF. Wild card is the transition time from around 0z-12z Monday. Is that mixy or light snow or mostly nothing?

CCB is 105-126hrs. Possibly starts a bit earlier in Northern spots.  That's plenty of time for a  BECS.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We’ll see what EPS says, but this seems pretty locked in. These run to run differences are fairly minor. Details to nitpick for the next 48hrs are thermal profiles and total precip amounts. But we have the broad strokes. 3-6” WAA snow Sunday. Probably 3-6” in the CCB for points north of DC, maybe north of EZF. Wild card is the transition time from around 0z-12z Monday. Is that mixy or light snow or mostly nothing?

The dryslot isn't that long in duration and could be some precip falling during that time especially I-95.....It's like a "lull" from late Sunday evening to mid morning on Monday

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Weird storm. Not sure I've ever experienced something like this. A coastal storm that last forever but never snows hard, or really even moderately for a long period of time. You would think the totals would be obscene from a deform that lasts so long. Is there a reason this has so little significant precipitation with it? Maybe it will juice up? Also pretty obvious that a very small area is likely to jackpot with 20+ and everyone else is probably looking at a general 8-14.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

Weird storm. Not sure I've ever experienced something like this. A coastal storm that last forever but never snows hard, or really even moderately for a long period of time. You would think the totals would be obscene from a deform that lasts so long. Is there a reason this has so little significant precipitation with it? Maybe it will juice up? Also pretty obvious that a very small area is likely to jackpot with 20+ and everyone else is probably looking at a general 8-14.

need to get 500/850 and surface to line up which it seems to be.  wouldn't take snow maps as verbatim right now

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Guidance is converging 

It honestly sucks that we'll probably not get a chance to see the 12z Canadian surface maps because it looked strikingly similar, probably would've painted a similar picture wrt snowfall totals. Once the mesos get in range things will get real. 

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3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Weird storm. Not sure I've ever experienced something like this. A coastal storm that last forever but never snows hard, or really even moderately for a long period of time. You would think the totals would be obscene from a deform that lasts so long. Is there a reason this has so little significant precipitation with it? Maybe it will juice up? Also pretty obvious that a very small area is likely to jackpot with 20+ and everyone else is probably looking at a general 8-14.

Areas within the deformation axis would undoubtedly get heavy snow as the resolution factors in the globals will not pick up such intricate banding structures. Considering the strength and placement of the 850 and 700mb lows, there would be a general enhancement to the north and northwest of the central low positions. Plenty of 850-700mb frontogen within the CCB as well. Efficient for piling up over time, even under light to moderate snowfall. 

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Areas within the deformation axis would undoubtedly get heavy snow as the resolution factors in the globals will not pick up such intricate banding structures. Considering the strength and placement of the 850 and 700mb lows, there would be a general enhancement to the north and northwest of the central low positions. Plenty of 850-700mb frontogen within the CCB as well. Efficient for piling up over time, even under light to moderate snowfall. 

Without being too much of a weenie this sure looks like a storm with major potential. It's difficult for even the best models to pinpoint location and intensity of the CCB band. Whoever is lucky enough to jackpot is going to get crushed. 

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Just now, Deck Pic said:

Using IAD as an example

1 am Sunday - Snow starts

Mid to late evening Sunday - Tapers

Late evening Sunday to Early morning Monday - Lull

Early to mid morning Monday - Snow resumes

Early to mid morning Tuesday - Tapers

Round 1 - ~4"

Lull - 1-2"

Round 2 - ~6"

i remember an event with that kind of thing---i think it was early Dec 2003

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