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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


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Just now, Amped said:

Maybe my memory is bad but it does seem like the UKMET has southern hiccup runs with a lot of east coast storms. 

The UKMET seems to have hiccups in both directions honestly.  And I know it has very good scores but that doesn't necessarily mean it does great with the specific location and amplitude of a discreet east coast low.  It seems to diverge from consensus more frequently then the other major globals in the day 3-5 range.  

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GFSv16 and NAM 12km look similar at 5H at hour 84 but worlds different at the surface. Then it gets really crazy from there with the handling of the primary and its obvious convective feedback errors with surface low placements on the coast. It was doing well until about 72, then it went haywire when looking at the Model Comparison trends on Pivotal. I'll chalk that run into the trash unless something remotely agrees with it.

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

GFSv16 and NAM 12km look similar at 5H at hour 84 but worlds different at the surface. Then it gets really crazy from there with the handling of the primary and its obvious convective feedback errors with surface low placements on the coast. It was doing well until about 72, then it went haywire when looking at the Model Comparison trends on Pivotal. I'll chalk that run into the trash unless something remotely agrees with it.

It doesn't look quite as bad if you squint and don't worry about the specific low location, I think.  The good part of the GFSv16 is that while we lose the column at some point late Sunday into Monday, the temps don't spike.  DCA peaks at about 34, vs 39 on the GFS. 

Those looking for a good backside on the para should avert their eyes.

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

It doesn't look quite as bad if you squint and don't worry about the specific low location, I think.  The good part of the GFSv16 is that while we lose the column at some point late Sunday into Monday, the temps don't spike.  DCA peaks at about 34, vs 39 on the GFS. 

Those looking for a good backside on the para should avert their eyes.

Yeah. I actually don't know why it wanted to hold on to the primary for so long. It's even longer than the GFS. Maybe it has trust issues and doesn't want to let go of its spawn? You know how young and maturing kids like to cling to the parents :lol:

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Hopefully the GEPS looked similar to the CMC OP? 

924998206_cmc-ensemble-all-avg-ma-total_snow_10to1-2278000(2).thumb.png.0908d07c41a7471b2531276cd31a6a15.png

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-ma-total_precip_inch-2278000.thumb.png.60c2af0ae79d9a899722dacf1199cbfa.png

Looks super nice. Slight cut back in mean for areas SW of DC but that's because the initial front end thump from the WAA is slightly weaker it seems. Although because of that the costal looks super nice and that aspect of the storm is south (which seems to be a big plus). 

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