psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Don't mind seeing one global south...as long as the euro doesn't follow the UK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Maybe my memory is bad but it does seem like the UKMET has southern hiccup runs with a lot of east coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Don't mind seeing one global south...as long as the euro doesn't follow the UK. This is just me musing between models runs, but at D3 I'd rather worry more about something going a bit south of me than the mix line. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 May this is stupid thinking but when I see the UKMET south in this case it just perhaps is a data point to suggest that the GFS is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Amped said: Maybe my memory is bad but it does seem like the UKMET has southern hiccup runs with a lot of east coast storms. The UKMET seems to have hiccups in both directions honestly. And I know it has very good scores but that doesn't necessarily mean it does great with the specific location and amplitude of a discreet east coast low. It seems to diverge from consensus more frequently then the other major globals in the day 3-5 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ovechkin said: May this is stupid thinking but when I see the UKMET south in this case it just perhaps is a data point to suggest that the GFS is out to lunch. we already know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFSv16 and NAM 12km look similar at 5H at hour 84 but worlds different at the surface. Then it gets really crazy from there with the handling of the primary and its obvious convective feedback errors with surface low placements on the coast. It was doing well until about 72, then it went haywire when looking at the Model Comparison trends on Pivotal. I'll chalk that run into the trash unless something remotely agrees with it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Hopefully the GEPS looked similar to the CMC OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: GFSv16 and NAM 12km look similar at 5H at hour 84 but worlds different at the surface. Then it gets really crazy from there with the handling of the primary and its obvious convective feedback errors with surface low placements on the coast. It was doing well until about 72, then it went haywire when looking at the Model Comparison trends on Pivotal. I'll chalk that run into the trash unless something remotely agrees with it. It doesn't look quite as bad if you squint and don't worry about the specific low location, I think. The good part of the GFSv16 is that while we lose the column at some point late Sunday into Monday, the temps don't spike. DCA peaks at about 34, vs 39 on the GFS. Those looking for a good backside on the para should avert their eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Any body have the cmc precip maps and snow maps? Cmc took a dump on TT and pivotal . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 36 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Never happen down here in Fredericksburg... we always seem to have a mix at some point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: It doesn't look quite as bad if you squint and don't worry about the specific low location, I think. The good part of the GFSv16 is that while we lose the column at some point late Sunday into Monday, the temps don't spike. DCA peaks at about 34, vs 39 on the GFS. Those looking for a good backside on the para should avert their eyes. Yeah. I actually don't know why it wanted to hold on to the primary for so long. It's even longer than the GFS. Maybe it has trust issues and doesn't want to let go of its spawn? You know how young and maturing kids like to cling to the parents 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just look at the trend of 24hr precipitation on the 12z GEFS over the past few runs. Very telling of a continuing trend towards the euro/the rest of the models. Comma shape setting up closer and closer to just how we want it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Hopefully the GEPS looked similar to the CMC OP? Looks super nice. Slight cut back in mean for areas SW of DC but that's because the initial front end thump from the WAA is slightly weaker it seems. Although because of that the costal looks super nice and that aspect of the storm is south (which seems to be a big plus). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Hopefully the GEPS looked similar to the CMC OP? GEPS looked really good for northern VA and MD imo. Implies good CCB from Manassas north. South of there gets a good WAA thump at the start. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Any body have the cmc precip maps and snow maps? Cmc took a dump on TT and pivotal . I can't find maps anywhere atm. Meteograms for DC looks pretty good. 30mm = 1.18 inches QPF as snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Now this is impressive 9 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 CRAS went South and is a better setup for this sub. And no, this isn't a joke post. Odd since the CRAS is usually all amped up....would have expected the primary holding on forever. Not so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Any body have the cmc precip maps and snow maps? Cmc took a dump on TT and pivotal . There is some sort of delay on the data dump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Very nice 2 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Seems that only 3/20 of the Canadian ensembles are total whiffs. Everything else looks like decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Euro is running. But it looks like Weather.us has changed their free maps for the high rez. No more precip maps I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 STOP REPLYING TO HIM 3 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Ok, guys. ignore the troll 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Euro is running. But it looks like Weather.us has changed their free maps for the high rez. No more precip maps I guess. Pivotal Weather has them for free. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 72 -- 1000mb SLP SE IL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Through 60. Euro is a little quicker and 2mb stronger with the primary entering MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 More amped on the euro through 60. Too amped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 WB EURO 10 pm Sat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Again, lets have one or two do the play by play. Yoda, you got this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts