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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


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I'm not sure whether this is predictive or not, but it looks like one of the reasons why the GFS is a bit further north for longer is that it retains a connection to the upper level low/trough in central Canada.  12z GFS above, 00z Euro below, both for Sunday morning.  You can see that the Euro is more divorced from the low/trough than the GFS is (also shown in the slight wind streak north of MN on the Euro that is less impressive on the GFS).

500wh.conus.thumb.png.2d9c94a52351bb4c2a138956de69c55e.png1335622971_500wh.conus(1).thumb.png.b2780886e69aa57123b9c6dc157e2299.png

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

I'm not sure whether this is predictive or not, but it looks like one of the reasons why the GFS is a bit further north for longer is that it retains a connection to the upper level low/trough in central Canada.  12z GFS above, 00z Euro below, both for Sunday morning.  You can see that the Euro is more divorced from the low/trough than the GFS is (also shown in the slight wind streak north of MN on the Euro that is less impressive on the GFS).

500wh.conus.thumb.png.2d9c94a52351bb4c2a138956de69c55e.png1335622971_500wh.conus(1).thumb.png.b2780886e69aa57123b9c6dc157e2299.png

could be the gfs bias of over focusing on the NS.  Tries to merge everything instead of keeping the wave distinctly separate 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

This is the warmest panel on the UK.  So some mix along 95 for a short time but temps crash again after this.  NW of the fall line would likely be all snow on the UK.  

1788417133_UK850.thumb.png.77918c875b6fc1e40a01e9ed9f691d1c.png

On this panel, you can clearly see the handoff to the coastal low is well underway by looking at the wind barbs. SE winds should flips to E then NE in the following panels.

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