Cobalt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 54 minutes ago, Cobalt said: To start off.. this is my biggest takeaway from that run. This is all the snow that accumulates before mixing issues reach even EZF. If we get 6-8" before worrying about the costal.. that's a colossal win Here's the EPS through this part of the storm. Keep in mind this is in 10:1, and even in the EPS the mean is starting off the storm with temps in the upper 20s. Even in 10:1 it shows the potential for a pretty great WAA thump. Really nice that the other half (and more) of the snow mean for the general DC area comes from after this. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Where’s Will? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro overdoes near-surface winds. Don't know why. It doesn't just overdo the winds, the gust product is truly awful. That is one area of the Euro that can be completely dismissed. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 32 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It takes 24 hours for the low to travel from the Outer Banks to the South Jersey coast on the Op. That is an epic track for almost all of us west of the Bay with that cold air in place. I need you to dial this back a little LOL. I don’t like being in the jackpot area until after the storm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 30 minutes ago, nj2va said: I count 32 EPS members that give DC 6"+ of snow. And 50/50 gets at least 2" into DC. Sweet. GEFS also has 27/30 with 2"+. Most in the last 7 runs, maybe all season for all I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 If the euro is right or close, when would expect the other models to follow suit? Canadian seems close but gfs not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, notvirga! said: If the euro is right or close, when would expect the other models will follow suit? Canadian seems close but gfs not so much. Starting with next run for GFS as the Canadian is already beginning to switch camps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: Cluster seems slightly SE of 6z, but I think that's because it dropped the outliers that take the lp all the way through the bay. Do you have the 18z Monday map. Was curious at how the clusters tracked.....Looks near ideal..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, notvirga! said: If the euro is right or close, when would expect the other models to follow suit? Canadian seems close but gfs not so much. 72 hours from onset. The overall pattern should be locked in minus nuisance details. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Do you have the 18z Monday map. Was curious at how the clusters tracked.....Looks near ideal..... this work? 4 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: Two other things on the backside vort. The GFS has it, but like the 00z Euro run, it is too late to help slow/wrap up the UL low over us. And, the vort energy appears to be over Japan right now, so we are going to be waiting to see how the models handle it the rest of the week. Thanks for pointing this feature out. I've seen a few Twitter mets mention it as well, so I'm wondering if that accounts for all or most of the GFS/Euro divide, and not necessarily the strength of the main low or it's position? In other words, is it fair to say there is reasonable (maybe not complete) agreement across guidance for the main UL low until it gets off the coast, but that guidance diverges when handling whether/how the backside vort interacts with the UL low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The CIPS analogs have almost every HECS. What’s impressive is they are based on the gfs ensemble. So obviously their indicating the gfs is a “but off” right now. 18 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The CIPS analogs have almost every HECS. What’s impressive is they are based on the gfs ensemble. So obviously their indicating the gfs is a “but off” right now. Can you post a link to that please? I can't find the link to that in my weather library of links lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I admit its kinda fun to see snow in the forecast on the ZFP's from LWX starting Saturday night and still be there in the forecast for Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 12 minutes ago, WinterFire said: Thanks for pointing this feature out. I've seen a few Twitter mets mention it as well, so I'm wondering if that accounts for all or most of the GFS/Euro divide, and not necessarily the strength of the main low or it's position? In other words, is it fair to say there is reasonable (maybe not complete) agreement across guidance for the main UL low until it gets off the coast, but that guidance diverges when handling whether/how the backside vort interacts with the UL low? To my weenie eyes, one of the key differences is the strength of the vort as it crosses the country. Euro holds/strengthens as it nears our area which combined with a coastal transfer near OBX + backside energy to capture/slow it down. GFS is initially closed off over the Midwest but then just opens/shears as it heads east. GFS then transfers too far north/pops a coastal low at/north our latitude and the backside UL low swings through and closes off with the SLP too far offshore/north of our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterFire said: Thanks for pointing this feature out. I've seen a few Twitter mets mention it as well, so I'm wondering if that accounts for all or most of the GFS/Euro divide, and not necessarily the strength of the main low or it's position? In other words, is it fair to say there is reasonable (maybe not complete) agreement across guidance for the main UL low until it gets off the coast, but that guidance diverges when handling whether/how the backside vort interacts with the UL low? The good thing is that this isn't some crazy setup. We have a nice big trough crossing the country and there will be a traditional transfer from a dying OH valley surface low to an East Coast low. The GFS keeps the trough more positively tilted as the axis gets towards 95, which is more of a large-scale pattern issue. The backside vort may help there, but it isn't the whole story (it is never one thing, of course). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The CIPS analogs have almost every HECS. What’s impressive is they are based on the gfs ensemble. So obviously their indicating the gfs is a “but off” right now. Don't tease me like that, share! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Surface depiction alone ( that's all I see out right now ), the 18z NAM looks a lot more Euro like than the GFS at 84. ETA: Looking similar with the 500 Vort as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 DC now in the “Heavy Snow” weather hazard 9 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Can you post a link to that please? I can't find the link to that in my weather library of links lol http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F132&rundt=2021012712&map=thbCOOP72 Also displayed in a tweet on the first page of this thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, gymengineer said: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F132&rundt=2021012712&map=thbCOOP72 Also displayed in a tweet on the first page of this thread. Oh snap. Jan '16 is #2, Jan '96 is #3. 3 2 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: DC now in the “Heavy Snow” weather hazard sh*t just got real. 3 1 9 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Oh snap. Jan '16 is #2, Jan '96 is #3. '83 and '09 too. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 15 minutes ago, nj2va said: To my weenie eyes, one of the key differences is the strength of the vort as it crosses the country. Euro holds/strengthens as it nears our area which combined with a coastal transfer near OBX + backside energy to capture/slow it down. GFS is initially closed off over the Midwest but then just opens/shears as it heads east. GFS then transfers too far north/pops a coastal low at/north our latitude and the backside UL low swings through and closes off with the SLP too far offshore/north of our latitude. 15 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The good thing is that this isn't some crazy setup. We have a nice big trough crossing the country and there will be a traditional transfer from a dying OH valley surface low to an East Coast low. The GFS keeps the trough more positively tilted as the axis gets towards 95, which is more of a large-scale pattern issue. The backside vort may help there, but it isn't the whole story (it is never one thing, of course). Thanks! I'm trying to learn more how to parse the upstream differences in model runs, so this is very helpful. I guess one question is would a faster movement of the backside vort prompt a negative tilt in the GFS progression or help it to slow down and close off south of our latitude? Though of course "it is never one thing" could really be the motto of this hobby, so I'm probably trying to oversimplify here haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Yes yes.. 18z NAM at the end of its run... but at h5 at 84 looks EUROesuqe to me 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: '83 and '09 too. And PD II in 2003. Probably the greatest analog list ever, lol. 5 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Oh snap. Jan '16 is #2, Jan '96 is #3. That's some serious stuff to have them as the top two analogs, but I see lots of Miller Bs in there, including... Boxing Day 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, high risk said: sh*t just got real. Do you happen to know what “Heavy Precipitation” means below the snow one? Is that just where it’s uncertain which type of precipitation it will be? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Feeling pretty good right now about my general location for this one. Central MD into NoVA in general looks prime here. Far enough north for solid temps, far enough SSE to get in on solid QPF. I’d be worried if I lived NNW of the MD/ PA border about a crazy cutoff for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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