Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, yoda said: It kinda feels like the GFS took pity on us and was like "my bad guys, let me come back and give you some action" It's so close to a win. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ji said: geez the GFS hates cold air The GFS is massively different (warmer) with the whole thermal structure over the northeast and even the ohio valley starting at 48 hours and IMO its screwing up EVERYTHING after. The "error" IMO in the temps is driving the primary AND the coastal front further north. At 84 hours GFS has the 850 isotherm along the PA line and the NAM/RGEM/Euro has it down in central VA. Who do you trust with thermals here? That shifts EVERYTHING north. That said the GFS is still "getting there". Look at last 3 runs trend. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 If the thermals were in line with other guidance, this would have been a huge run. Like someone from PSU said yesterday...trend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 That run was so close to something bigger for part of the sub-forum. This storm has so much potential, but the question is how far north does the CCB core end up. GFS was very close to a banner event for everyone north of I-70. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I am willing to bet that there will be some really good GEFS members on the 12z run for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: That run was so close to something bigger for part of the sub-forum. This storm has so much potential, but the question is how far north does the CCB core end up. GFS was very close to a banner event for everyone north of I-70. The GFS is messing up the thermals and it’s causing the secondary to develop further north. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS partial cave to Euro. IMBY—no complaints. CMC and Euro up next... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The GFS is massively different (warmer) with the whole thermal structure over the northeast and even the ohio valley starting at 48 hours and IMO its screwing up EVERYTHING after. The "error" IMO in the temps is driving the primary AND the coastal front further north. At 84 hours GFS has the 850 isotherm along the PA line and the NAM/RGEM/Euro has it down in central VA. Who do you trust with thermals here? That shifts EVERYTHING north. That said the GFS is still "getting there". Look at last 3 runs trend. This was EXACTLY what WPC mentioned in their Day 3-7 disco and why they were not using the GFS. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: The GFS is massively different (warmer) with the whole thermal structure over the northeast and even the ohio valley starting at 48 hours and IMO its screwing up EVERYTHING after. The "error" IMO in the temps is driving the primary AND the coastal front further north. At 84 hours GFS has the 850 isotherm along the PA line and the NAM/RGEM/Euro has it down in central VA. Who do you trust with thermals here? That shifts EVERYTHING north. That said the GFS is still "getting there". Look at last 3 runs trend. I am impressed with the 12z GFS so far. Ignoring the thermals issues the upper air maps argue for snow almost straight down to the SLP. z850 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, yoda said: I am willing to bet that there will be some really good GEFS members on the 12z run for everyone No doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 48 hours of snow is cool. 48 hours to get 7 inches....... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Another model showing a very long duration event . Ggs ...Definitely a step towards the Euro nam camp . Yes and long duration makes up for lack of inches 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Side note for my above post: If the GFS transferred its 700 mb and 850 energy even just 6 hours sooner from the primary to the coastal, it would be all/mostly snow for literally everyone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Even with the mid-storm torch, it is very generally a 3" storm with the WAA and then a 0" (to the SW) to 5" (to the N and NE) backside event. So, a region-wide 3-8" storm, which isn't bad for the model that doesn't look quite right. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Looks like 2" qpf around Baltimore. Very nice Make it snow and...........BOOM! That's the kind of qpf I'm looking for. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I found this interesting. GFS 2m temps Sunday morning vs RGEM 2m temps same time. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I think(?) the 12z CMC is out to 120 on this site: https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS showing euro-ish trends makes one believe things are coming more in line with the EC/CMC scenario. GFS is struggling with its bias of overdoing the northern branch and underdoing the southern. Warm dry air just rockets in on this solution then cold conveyor just turns on for 12 hours of wrap around? Pretty extreme scenario at this latitude. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Typical Miller B Pennsylvania snowstorm. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 WB GFS 12Z Final precipitation maps 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: Even with the mid-storm torch, it is very generally a 3" storm with the WAA and then a 0" (to the SW) to 5" (to the N and NE) backside event. So, a region-wide 3-8" storm, which isn't bad for the model that doesn't look quite right. 3 to 8 inches over two days is rather under-whelming, especially for us in the city and close-in suburbs. You really need to have consistent snow and at least some good rates to keep more than you lose due to melting, etc, Yes, it will look nice seeing flakes falling. But 3 or 4 inches over 2 days in the city will be almost as much annoyance as it is joy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's so close to a win. I agree. I don't think the model is finished adjusting to what we all want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: CMC does not deliver the backside goods On that link @NorthArlington101 posted it looks like it changes us all back to heavy snow Monday afternoon/evening which hangs around for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: If you are in the Shenandoah Valley you better pray with me that that the GFS is wrong. We miss the big thump, get dry slotted and miss the good snows from the coastal. It is a bad run out here. No other way to put it. GFS gives me twice as much precip as you. I'm not buying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, DCTeacherman said: On that link @NorthArlington101 posted it looks like it changes us all back to heavy snow Monday afternoon/evening which hangs around for a while. CMC looks great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: I found this interesting. GFS 2m temps Sunday morning vs RGEM 2m temps same time. Wow that’s not just a disagreement amongst friends. Hopefully GooFuS just totally under doing the CAD. Based on the setup I’d guess low to mid 20s DC and suburbs makes the most sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 CMC FTW. Way better out this way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like 2" qpf around Baltimore. Very nice This is one time everyone loves 2" and is completely satisfied. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 CMC is very nice. from the ptype plots...very nice WAA thump then we get CCB'd pretty darn good even down into N VA. East of a IAD to Me line does mix with sleet for a time and east of 95 mixes with some rain but VERY nice front and back end. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: Not for all of us it wouldnt. That storm kind of sucked out here. That storm was an absolute nightmare. I was in front royal at that time. We got slop during the waa and about 3 inches from the coastal. Bright sunshine by noon that day as the rest of the forum was blasted all afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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