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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


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12 minutes ago, Ji said:

geez the GFS hates cold air

The GFS is massively different (warmer) with the whole thermal structure over the northeast and even the ohio valley starting at 48 hours and IMO its screwing up EVERYTHING after.  The "error" IMO in the temps is driving the primary AND the coastal front further north.  At 84 hours GFS has the 850 isotherm along the PA line and the NAM/RGEM/Euro has it down in central VA.  Who do you trust with thermals here?  That shifts EVERYTHING north.  That said the GFS is still "getting there".  Look at last 3 runs trend. 

CA9FD734-C46C-4626-B1CD-FB6A8183D285.gif.cb44c45c51f003ff1f6b1f4e01f84625.gif

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

That run was so close to something bigger for part of the sub-forum. This storm has so much potential, but the question is how far north does the CCB core end up. GFS was very close to a banner event for everyone north of I-70.

The GFS is messing up the thermals and it’s causing the secondary to develop further north. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The GFS is massively different (warmer) with the whole thermal structure over the northeast and even the ohio valley starting at 48 hours and IMO its screwing up EVERYTHING after.  The "error" IMO in the temps is driving the primary AND the coastal front further north.  At 84 hours GFS has the 850 isotherm along the PA line and the NAM/RGEM/Euro has it down in central VA.  Who do you trust with thermals here?  That shifts EVERYTHING north.  That said the GFS is still "getting there".  Look at last 3 runs trend. 

This was EXACTLY what WPC mentioned in their Day 3-7 disco and why they were not using the GFS. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

The GFS is massively different (warmer) with the whole thermal structure over the northeast and even the ohio valley starting at 48 hours and IMO its screwing up EVERYTHING after.  The "error" IMO in the temps is driving the primary AND the coastal front further north.  At 84 hours GFS has the 850 isotherm along the PA line and the NAM/RGEM/Euro has it down in central VA.  Who do you trust with thermals here?  That shifts EVERYTHING north.  That said the GFS is still "getting there".  Look at last 3 runs trend. 

 

I am impressed with the 12z GFS so far. Ignoring the thermals issues the upper air maps argue for snow almost straight down to the SLP.

gfs_z700_vort_neus_20.png

z850

gfs_z850_vort_neus_19.png

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GFS showing euro-ish trends makes one believe things are coming more in line with the EC/CMC scenario. GFS is struggling with its bias of overdoing the northern branch and underdoing the southern. Warm dry air just rockets in on this solution then cold conveyor just turns on for 12 hours of wrap around? Pretty extreme scenario at this latitude. 

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

Even with the mid-storm torch, it is very generally a 3" storm with the WAA and then a 0" (to the SW) to 5" (to the N and NE) backside event.  So, a region-wide 3-8" storm, which isn't bad for the model that doesn't look quite right.

3 to 8 inches over two days is rather under-whelming, especially for us in the city and close-in suburbs.   You really need to have consistent snow and at least some good rates to keep more than you lose due to melting, etc,    Yes, it will look nice seeing flakes falling. But 3 or 4 inches over 2 days in the city will be almost as much annoyance as it is joy.

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11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

If you are in the Shenandoah Valley you better pray with me that that the GFS is wrong. We miss the big thump, get dry slotted and miss the good snows from the coastal. It is a bad run out here. No other way to put it. 

GFS gives me twice as much precip as you.  I'm not buying that.

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4 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

I found this interesting.   GFS 2m temps Sunday morning   vs RGEM 2m temps same time.

image.png.40760c4ce4bddaa0ff0cb7c5eb8ddc98.png

image.png.4f707239f7141afd27f2cc6b8b2446e5.png

Wow that’s not just a disagreement amongst friends.  Hopefully GooFuS just totally under doing the CAD.  Based on the setup I’d guess low to mid 20s DC and suburbs makes the most sense.

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1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Not for all of us it wouldnt. That storm kind of sucked out here. 

That storm was an absolute nightmare.  I was in front royal at that time.  We got slop during the waa and about 3 inches from the coastal.   Bright sunshine by noon that day as the rest of the forum was blasted all afternoon.

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