psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The 12k NAM on the last frame the surface low in NC is already developing a closed circulation. The next step we would want to see is the 850 low start to jump and reorganize along with the secondary. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: ICON makes the jump to the secondary off the delmarva. Yes the process "begins" down in NC but its really just in its infancy stage and the coastal front baroclinic zone starts to amplify...it doesn't really take over as the primary circulation until at our latitude. That is no good. We need the Euro solution of a clean transfer to the outer banks. That simple. ICON solution would still be a nice front end WAA snow though. I do hope we can end this model stalemate today...one way or the other. What are the other late transfer models doing to make the primary go awry? Having it be too strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 RGEM once again holding ground with the cold powder idea for the WAA snow on Sunday. Thermal profile is frigid through the whole front end, just like the NAM. Modest 850-700mb frontogen over NoVA and the 270 corridor. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The 12k NAM on the last frame the surface low in NC is already developing a closed circulation. The next step we would want to see is the 850 low start to jump and reorganize along with the secondary. It's one of those times where I hope the NAM is on to the right idea for y'alls sake! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 RGEM is even further south of the NAM but it is a little slower getting the secondary...but you can see it's going to jump to NC but it has not started to develop a closed circulation YET. But given the look at 84 the RGEM looks like it will go more the euro/nam route also. I was not looking at the last frame of the RGEM, hadn't updated DOH...now that I see it the RGEM is VERY similar to the NAM and Euro. Secondary is taking over near Greenville NC on the last frame and has begun to develop a closed circulation. That really is the key...the "worse" globals like the ICON and GFS that mostly miss us with the coastal ccb do so because they linger the primary longer and don't really begin the process of amplifying the secondary until it is off the VA capes. We need that process to start in NC. 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Looks fairly unchanged thru 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: It's one of those times where I hope the NAM is on to the right idea for y'alls sake! It seems that its been pretty much in alignment with the Euro even when the vort got into the 84H range yesterday. Hopefully thats a good sign. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: RGEM is even further south of the NAM but it is a little slower getting the secondary...but you can see it's going to jump to NC but it has not started to develop a closed circulation YET. But given the look at 84 the RGEM looks like it will go more the euro/nam route also. RGEM was a nice look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Former SPC met living in MD. This is the National Blend of Models (NBM) probability of 6" or more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Through 57, confluence over the NE is still pretty different comparing the GFS vs the EURO. Euro has a closed ULL much further west in the gulf of ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Thru Hr 57, the 5H shift is apparent from last nights 00z run. It is not as progressive and the vort is holding together over MO and not opening up as has been the case last several runs. It's taking another baby step to the rest of guidance. Still have to wait and see what it does once it reaches the OH Valley. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Former SPC met living in MD. This is the National Blend of Models (NBM) probability of 6" or more. Meh. Makes sense though given the Euro and CMC are the only models delivering the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS is 1mb stronger also thru 66 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS, like NAM (and ICON), has WAA hitting the SW side of the broader metro DC area by 12z sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Through 78. 850s slightly colder and hanging longer for the front end thump. SLP a little slower in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 If you look at the trend over the past 4 or 5 runs, GFS is slowing down the progression of the primary. It's still in Indiana at 72 hours vs closer to Ohio in past runs. Small differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Good thump for everyone north of EZF through 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 not going to be any changes to the GFS.....Cant believe it hasnt started to buckle to the Euro yet..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Dumping by 18z Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Definitely south with the primary this run. I get dry slotted at 84. But the coastal is popping then off OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 12z GFS appears to be working towards the Euro/CMC/NAM camp WRT to the WAA thump. Looks like everyone north of EZF to St. Mary's does better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 WB GFS 4am Sun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 DC does pretty bad with Miller Bs where the primary gets north of the Ohio River. It's going to be tough to keep this one south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Primary just doesn't die quick enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ravensrule said: Um The front end thump looks better, but the GFS still holds on to the primary low in the end. After the WAA precip it's not a good run for snow lovers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS is ICON like, decent front end thump and a whiff on the coastal. I'll take my 2-5 inches Sunday and like it if this ends up being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ji said: geez the GFS hates cold air DC is losing the surface at 18z Sunday. The upside is that it has the precip coming in earlier than the other models so there is still snow on the front side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Definitely a shift south with the CCB compared to 6z. Northern MD gets it on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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