CAPE Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: So are we just straight up not getting the 6z Euro? Bah. It seems to have died on WB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 WAA always gets here faster. And for us out here, is the one precip scenario that usually exceeds expectations. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: WAA always gets here faster. And for us out here, is the one precip scenario that usually exceeds expectations. Yup. My lead forecaster in college said, "WAA snow waits for no man." 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: WAA always gets here faster. And for us out here, is the one precip scenario that usually exceeds expectations. This. WAA thump is where it's at for many. Coastal will do whatever it does, probably favor the usual places. LONG LIVE THE WAA! 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. My lead forecaster in college said, "WAA snow waits for no man." Still the best example of this in my experience is Feb. 2003 PD-II. That came in like a wall of snow. The other big ones since have been similar, starting up quickly, but PD-II was the most dramatic. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Still the best example of this in my experience is Feb. 2003 PD-II. That came in like a wall of snow. The other big ones since have been similar, starting up quickly, but PD-II was the most dramatic. Yup. I remember waking up in Philly on the day of the event. It was supposed to start at like 3:00 pm but it was 7:00 am and light snow was already falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Is my hope of a stall and retrograde even possible?Yup! Retrograde at least but I don’t see the full capture to induce a stall. However, could very well be a crawler for several hours with a N or NNW trajectory. This almost reminds me of 2006 vibes with regards to the 5H low as the low kind of waited for the ULL pivot through VA before finally kicking out of here. It has that potential and that was special for many. Note to readers: I am NOT saying this is 2006 by any means. Different synoptic pattern. Just the ULL progression and waiting aspect. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I never saw a 72 event. Which model ? but Euro has been consistent with a 42-48 event with nonstop precip of some sort. Pretty impressive even if it's prediction is off a bit . Heck 24-30 hours is alot of fun . I think it was the 12z euro yesterday that you missed, had snow from Sunday to Wednesday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Still the best example of this in my experience is Feb. 2003 PD-II. That came in like a wall of snow. The other big ones since have been similar, starting up quickly, but PD-II was the most dramatic. It was a total beat down. I also remember the January 1996 also was a sprint from the start but PD-II is #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MocoMike Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: FYI, not sure that's the best image he posted. It was the OP, not ENS and the WAA snow was still ongoing. I'd add another 1" - 3" to what the graphic 0z v 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, MocoMike said: 0z v 6z Just a bit slower I believe but I could be looking at it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 HM update 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MocoMike Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, chris21 said: Just a bit slower I believe but I could be looking at it wrong. Ok cool. I was like...what am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Gefs trend with the ccb last 24 hours 17 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Gefs trend with the ccb last 24 hours CC: @ers-wxman1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: CC: @ers-wxman1 Improved 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Improved Looks like the 06z GEPS gets the CCB back all the way to I-66 in Virginia now. Last night it was I-70 in Maryland. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Pretty interesting and key note from HM RE: the lack of warm sector convection with this storm that makes things more predictable. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs trend with the ccb last 24 hours 3-4 more ticks and it will look identical to the EPS lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 12Z 12k NAM has the first stretch of WAA getting to our area by 12z Sunday. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 NAM at 84 is barely worth talking about, but it is nice and cold on the front side. Nice 4-6" hit. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2/9-10, 2010 also had 20 inches of snow on the ground to start. I have no clue why but when we have snow already around it seems to alter systems. 96 had a clipper that turned into a 6 inch storm also with 2 feet on the ground. If this thing now has a primary in Ohio and a transfer near Delaware we will be using a broom to sweep our 1-2 inches while NYC gets 18 inches o 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: February 9-10, 2010 Miller B HECS had the primary into Ohio fwiw then a tucked coastal off Delaware A repeat of that would be awesome! Gotta see some juicier runs soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, ovechkin said: 2/9-10, 2010 also had 20 inches of snow on the ground to start. I have no clue why but when we have snow already around it seems to alter systems. 96 had a clipper that turned into a 6 inch storm also with 2 feet on the ground. If this thing now has a primary in Ohio and a transfer near Delaware we will be using a broom to sweep our 1-2 inches while NYC gets 18 inches o Right now a transfer is off the NC coast. I know its the NAM at range, but you can see it starting down near ILM on the final panel. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 @psuhoffman maybe i was dreaming but i thought i saw last night in the New England forum that March 2001 had snuck in their as a top analog 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, ovechkin said: 2/9-10, 2010 also had 20 inches of snow on the ground to start. I have no clue why but when we have snow already around it seems to alter systems. 96 had a clipper that turned into a 6 inch storm also with 2 feet on the ground. If this thing now has a primary in Ohio and a transfer near Delaware we will be using a broom to sweep our 1-2 inches while NYC gets 18 inches o That has little practical effect on snowstorms other than possibly maintaining a cooler temp leading up to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Right now a transfer is off the NC coast. I know its the NAM at range, but you can see it starting down near ILM on the final panel. Great catch, you can see it from frame 81 to 84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Man. I know it's the NAM, but that front end from the WAA is cold powder for a majority of the snowfall. The thermal profile is perfect and slowly starts to degrade at 850mb half way through. It would be beautiful 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Take a look at SLP for GFS, Euro, and NAM. Both euro and nam much slower with the primary progression, quicker transfer, and subsequent hits incoming. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 It should also be noted the Euro/NAM have a stronger high in Canada versus the GFS. This disparity has been happening since D6. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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