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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


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26 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

For reference today/tonight/and insomnia:

GFS (wicked step)
0z: 10:30pm
6z: 4:30am
12z: 10:30am
18z: 4:30pm

NAM (weenie for $500)
0z: 8:35pm
6z: 2:35am
12z: 8:35am
18z: 2:35pm

CMC (Hail Mary)
0z: 12:00am
12z : 12:00pm

UKMET (gap fill)
0z: 12:30am
12z: 12:30pm

Dr. No (no formal acronym needed)
0z: 1:30am
12z: 1:30pm

Way to forget the ICON lol

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DC doesn’t do complicated very well 99% of the time. Late December 2000 was 6-10 that became a total whiff. Jan 2005 was a potential big one that only produced a few inches of WAA snow (in a very cold airmass btw) that then dry slotted while NYC got 15 inches because someone sneezed in the Lincoln Tunnel. 
 

So many easy ways to fail. At least if we get something on the front end and some on the back end it will fall in different months so from a stats standpoint we could perhaps get close to monthly snow averages. Always need to look on the bright side :)

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NWS seems awfully bullish. 
 

Saturday Night
A chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday
Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 32. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday Night
Snow likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Monday
Snow likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

A quicker primary death is preferred yes?

It’s the only think that matters.  Eliminates south winds ahead of it, allows the coastal to crank earlier.  Euro and gfs are 6-12 hours apart on that.

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

A quicker primary death is preferred yes?

100%. The longer the primary holds on / the stronger it is, the more it pumps warm air into our area out ahead of it. It’s also more likely that h5 passes to our north with a stronger, more north primary.

ideally, we want the transfer to happen as early and south as possible. both in terms of precip blossoming and temps crashing 

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Just now, LP08 said:

It’s the only think that matters.  Eliminates south winds ahead of it, allows the coastal to crank earlier.  Euro and gfs are 6-12 hours apart on that.

Would think it helps the folks in the Eastern areas possibly. Seems the GEFS members were better as well this morning.  

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