Buddy1987 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I saw H20 ask some pointed questions regarding what could go wrong but IMO that’s more so to my north and east. Almost every major model has us easily 6+” down this way. I actually had same question with what could alter things down this way, as the secondary is going to form too far to my north and east. Do I want the primary to get close or do I want it to stay in IL or IN before the dry slot works in to maximize snow potential here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @MillvilleWx totally agree on the WAA providing a widespread low-end warning deal with the coastal being the wildcard. Big dogs always mix, so I’ll accept my sleet if and when it comes Monday in advance of hopefully puking dendrites in the CCB. I liked seeing the euro come into agreement with the other guidance on start time Sunday. Looks like mid-late morning. I’m stoked for a couple @Jebman Jebwalks in daylight with mod snow. For sure. I'm always a take the easy road if possible for these setups. Experienced too many failures while my friends in PA/NJ/NY/MA talk about how awesome the storm was and posting on SM. Plus, whatever falls will stick instantly on Sunday. Plenty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: I saw H20 ask some pointed questions regarding what could go wrong but IMO that’s more so to my north and east. Almost every major model has us easily 6+” down this way. I actually had same question with what could alter things down this way, as the secondary is going to form to far to my north and east. Do I want the primary to get close or do I want it to stay in IL or IN before the dry slot works in to maximize snow potential here? You should enjoy the WAA stuff no question. You and @Disc will be getting pounded by aggregates most likely Saturday night into early Sunday. You want the primary to stay near IN. That's the sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: You should enjoy the WAA stuff no question. You and @Disc will be getting pounded by aggregates most likely Saturday night into early Sunday. You want the primary to stay near IN. That's the sweet spot Awesome! Really appreciate you taking the time to always answer questions here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Thanks, good info. This is a complex situation (as usual). If the NA vortex was holding the confluence in place longer my area might do ok with a west track/transfer deal, but unfortunately things are loosening up top with the block, that vortex is exiting, and this system is a slow evolving one. Hopefully the front end can deliver 2-4", but beyond that, not liking what I see on guidance. But CAD trends better in time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Euro looks good to me. 3-6 inches for the WAA is what I’m pumped for. Anything after that is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I may be off, but the 6z euro looks better than 0z but I’m dealing with limited maps. Confluence is better in the NE and H5 is “tighter”. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, LP08 said: I may be off, but the 6z euro looks better than 0z but I’m dealing with limited maps. Confluence is better in the NE and H5 is “tighter”. Looking at H5, confluence looks a bit better to me too. Surface maps are slower to load so haven’t seen the surface yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesrck63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 26 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: For reference today/tonight/and insomnia: GFS (wicked step) 0z: 10:30pm 6z: 4:30am 12z: 10:30am 18z: 4:30pm NAM (weenie for $500) 0z: 8:35pm 6z: 2:35am 12z: 8:35am 18z: 2:35pm CMC (Hail Mary) 0z: 12:00am 12z : 12:00pm UKMET (gap fill) 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm Dr. No (no formal acronym needed) 0z: 1:30am 12z: 1:30pm Way to forget the ICON lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Euro taking its sweet time on WxBell to get anything other than 5H maps to load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 DC doesn’t do complicated very well 99% of the time. Late December 2000 was 6-10 that became a total whiff. Jan 2005 was a potential big one that only produced a few inches of WAA snow (in a very cold airmass btw) that then dry slotted while NYC got 15 inches because someone sneezed in the Lincoln Tunnel. So many easy ways to fail. At least if we get something on the front end and some on the back end it will fall in different months so from a stats standpoint we could perhaps get close to monthly snow averages. Always need to look on the bright side 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 6z was weaker and further south with the primary.( 84 hr) Snowing in your yard by mid morning Sunday. the Euro or JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 That rain/snow line sure has trended closer to D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 23 minutes ago, nj2va said: Euro taking its sweet time on WxBell to get anything other than 5H maps to load. It's been stuck on 30hr for like 30mins now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, BristowWx said: the Euro or JMA? Morning Euro overall held steady and from what I am hearing maybe some subtle improvements in terms of the transfer and trough placement. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, frd said: Morning Euro overall held steady and from what I am hearing maybe some subtle improvements in terms of the transfer and trough placement. Roger. That’s good news. Appreciate that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Eps looks weaker with the primary . Quicker transfer through 96 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Eps looks weaker with the primary . Quicker transfer through 96 Colder as well . Nice run incoming It’s a sweet one. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Big improvement on the 6z eps. Control as well. Just pretend you never saw 0z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 NWS seems awfully bullish. Saturday Night A chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 32. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night Snow likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Snow likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Rgem looks acceptable through 84 . Primary appears to slowly die in Kentucky or western WV next couple frames. A quicker primary death is preferred yes? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 EPS looks pretty good to the naked, tired 8:12 AM eye - quicker transfer for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: A quicker primary death is preferred yes? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: A quicker primary death is preferred yes? It’s the only think that matters. Eliminates south winds ahead of it, allows the coastal to crank earlier. Euro and gfs are 6-12 hours apart on that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: A quicker primary death is preferred yes? 100%. The longer the primary holds on / the stronger it is, the more it pumps warm air into our area out ahead of it. It’s also more likely that h5 passes to our north with a stronger, more north primary. ideally, we want the transfer to happen as early and south as possible. both in terms of precip blossoming and temps crashing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: It’s the only think that matters. Eliminates south winds ahead of it, allows the coastal to crank earlier. Euro and gfs are 6-12 hours apart on that. Would think it helps the folks in the Eastern areas possibly. Seems the GEFS members were better as well this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, Negnao said: Big improvement on the 6z eps. Control as well. Just pretend you never saw 0z. As in looks like the 12z run yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 But Isn’t there a risk of the worst of both worlds so to speak? WAA dies out earlier and still miss the goods from the coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ovechkin said: But Isn’t there a risk of the worst of both worlds so to speak? WAA dies out earlier and still miss the goods from the coastal? Yes, that's the class Miller B screw job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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