TowsonWeather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, yoda said: 6-12 is a nailbiter? Okay then One more shift like this one and half the subforum would be looking at a dramatically scaled down event...a few inches of WAA snow and then snizzle. AS DEPICTED it's still great. But yes, when 50 miles makes the difference between 2-3 inches and 15, that's nailbiter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Thanks for your great and reasonable posts. I am gathering we want the h7 low to be like 50-75 miles S of us for perfection? Correct. 7H over CHO up to Fredericksburg is the ticket 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Shift the storm 30 miles SSE and that 24+ jackpot is right over us. Seasonal trend says not so fast however. I was never worried about suppression. I was worried about Harrisburg to Boston getting crushed. This setup reminds me of many classic Miller b’s that dumped 18+” on the New York metro area in the early 2000s when I lived up that way. Not all of them miss us down here, but some certainly do - especially from dc south. I’d take the euro / cmc blend and run with it but boy, are we playing with fire here But yet...hasn't the seasonal trend been suppression? (especially this month, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: If it trends north we'll likely do better on the front end...It's not a win-win...but some consolation I'm 30+ miles NW of DC - I would rather see a stronger coastal with mixing along 95 - pretty sure every really big storm we've had here had mixing near 95, while we remained all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Correct, but the concern is that every Euro run over the last 3 runs has pushed the higher totals north. I hope that trend doesn’t continue tomorrow. ALWAYS the concern with these setups. It's a tight rope walk for the area. Euro/CMC/Para GFS are all good for the WAA piece. CMC is like the dividing line between the Euro and GFS. IF I was to bet where the best snow will occur, I predict Rt30 to the PA Turnpike with 50 miles either side being well within the clear for a MECS. Need a little more of a southward trend for DC/NoVA. Miller B life 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: But yet...hasn't the seasonal trend been suppression? (especially this month, lol) I think the December storm that showed 40”for us within 100 hours only for it to snow 7-8” and it snow 40+“ in Binghamton is haunting me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 @MillvilleWx the h5 progression is beautiful. I have a feeling when the EPS comes out this op was a northern solution in the envelope. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, yoda said: I believe his mention of where the h7 low passes is causing that. If we can get that to move south a tad, the higher totals will come back south... is that right @MillvilleWx? Or do i have that wrong? The mid-level dynamics need to a be a bit further south in order to cash with the coastal. 850-700mb is the area you watch for low passage as this is where the best lift for dendritic growth occurs and you see better banding structures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Surface temps look a bit too warm on this run. Would imply a very wet snow which is unusual for up this way during coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: @MillvilleWx the h5 progression is beautiful. I have a feeling when the EPS comes out this op was a northern solution in the envelope. I could see that. It was legit splitting hairs on who gets bombed on that run. I was digesting the 7H low progression and it was legit 25 miles north from the sweet spot. I'm just glad the Euro hung on to nice transfer and vort passage compared to the GFS which has been sloppy. I know people in here are worried about things trending too far north, and it's justified, BUT if you follow weather around here, these Miller B/Hybrid setups are NEVER easy. You have to walk the tight rope. The cool part is, when they happen, they are magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: THAT was one hell of a run for much of the sub-forum. Despite the bit of mixing during part of the coastal for the cities, everyone is puking dendrites at some point during the height of the coastal. US15 to I81 from Winchester to Harrisburg could be the deformation zone on this run verbatim. The whole area gets walloped in all. 1'+ for a ton of the sub. Even with the slightly farther north track of the surface low into southern Ohio, the goods are still delivered. I liked seeing a consistent hold of the ULL as it crosses into the Ohio Valley as well, strengthening again as it moves east. The 7H low cuts right over the Potomac. Just a slightly further south depiction, and it's blockbuster for basically everyone. A great run But I personally lost 12” of digital snow are you going to come here and console me, wipe my tears, help me throw digital punches and sue the Europeans? Fight this out in banter? PBP of euro at 1 am ET. My next briefing is in 6 hours. Great having you on here bro. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: But I personally lost 12” of digital snow are you going to come here and console me, wipe my tears, help me throw digital punches and sue the Europeans? Fight this out in banter? PBP of euro at 1 am ET. My next briefing is in 6 hours. You must live in NoVA. The king of jackpot depictions 100+ hours out that never pan out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: But I personally lost 12” of digital snow are you going to come here and console me, wipe my tears, help me throw digital punches and sue the Europeans? Fight this out in banter? PBP of euro at 1 am ET. My next briefing is in 6 hours. Pass the coffee 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Surface temps look a bit too warm on this run. Would imply a very wet snow which is unusual for up this way during coastals. What else is new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, Amped said: And the scary part is I think the QPF it's showing over PA is too light given the firehose. Should be a massive area of 30+ from Garret county to Binghamton . The models never show the mountain effects properly at this range - maybe not enough resolution? Any of the recent runs, with this track, are easily 20"+ in Garrett, probably more in Tucker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: You must live in NoVA. The king of jackpot depictions 100+ hours out that never pan out Ashburn. I went from 25 to 13. Suing PA for taking my digital snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Ashburn. I went from 25 to 13. Suing PA for taking my digital snow. Loudoun always does well compared to 90% of the sub - but you knew that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 [mention=9895]MillvilleWx[/mention] the h5 progression is beautiful. I have a feeling when the EPS comes out this op was a northern solution in the envelope. I didn't expect the euro to show the north shift after seeing this which is what I looked at first. March 2001 ftl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Ashburn. I went from 25 to 13. Suing PA for taking my digital snow. I went 15 to 8... wanna start a class action? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 At 6 hours I don’t see any major changes on the EPS 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 What else is new We got 72 hours to go from nina to nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Ashburn. I went from 25 to 13. Suing PA for taking my digital snow. Still so early. Jackpot could easily come back to VA. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Huge snowstorm wraps up on Tuesday then Friday we hit 60. Shades of 96. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: I didn't expect the euro to show the north shift after seeing this which is what I looked at first. March 2001 ftl Yea the h5 pass was great but sometimes the surface doesn’t line up perfectly. The primary held on a bit too long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Yea the h5 pass was great but sometimes the surface doesn’t line up perfectly. The primary held on a bit too long. Seems reason enough for me to question the surface depiction . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 My bar is 4". That simple. We get 6" while NYC gets 20"? Well that sucks, but I just want WSW criteria snow. Any more is gravy and sauce 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 At 72 the eps is SLIGHTLY south in MO with the surface low. But it’s minor. No major differences over 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Oye lots of late night Doomers. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, DCAlexandria said: Seems reason enough for me to question the surface depiction . It being a weather model 72+ hours out should naturally give any of us reason to question it. We’ll see once the EPS run wraps up if this OP was a northern outlier or not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Still so early. Jackpot could easily come back to VA . According to my completely unqualified opinion, 95% of storms trend north in the last 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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