jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Harrisburg to philly gets walloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 From 4pm to 1am the storm just sits there and cranks snow over most of us? Sick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: We're flirting a bit with being too far south for the coastal....But after the other evening guidance, I think people are going to be very happy with this run I'd appreciate a jog or three south but beggars can't be choosers. Warning level storm CHO-north, jackpots the usual areas... seems like this run has as good a chance to play out as any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Sits on or next to delmarva from 111 to 129... wow. Slightly too far north for D.C. crew, best banding sets up in MD, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 This is exactly what I was talking about before. Typical climo. Tuck it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 am Tues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 goodnight all! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Comparing to the 18z EPS, this seems like one of the more western outliers from that run. Something to keep in mind as we wait for the 0z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Its a small step back for the euro but who the heck cares, Most of us still push past a foot with higher totals possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I was concerned out here about that dryslot after a quick burst with the waa. But at least I stay all snow and get into the good stuff once the coastal cranks. Good run. But I don't like seeing the easy snow with the waa go down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: goodnight all! I’m in that light blue shading between 18.5 and 23.4. I may have fainted for a moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: PSU gets nailed, but I know he isn't going to like the run...lol We’re flirting with the coastal getting going too late that’s my only concern. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I hope we didn't bullseye too early. Def don't need a north trend here 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: We’re flirting with the coastal getting going too late that’s my only concern. Yes we are. Shift this whole thing 75 miles S/SE and we all win. As it is, as depicted anyway, it's a nailbiter for many in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, TowsonWeather said: Yes we are. Shift this whole thing 75 miles S/SE and we all win. As it is, as depicted anyway, it's a nailbiter for many in this forum. 6-12 is a nailbiter? Okay then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 THAT was one hell of a run for much of the sub-forum. Despite the bit of mixing during part of the coastal for the cities, everyone is puking dendrites at some point during the height of the coastal. US15 to I81 from Winchester to Harrisburg could be the deformation zone on this run verbatim. The whole area gets walloped in all. 1'+ for a ton of the sub. Even with the slightly farther north track of the surface low into southern Ohio, the goods are still delivered. I liked seeing a consistent hold of the ULL as it crosses into the Ohio Valley as well, strengthening again as it moves east. The 7H low cuts right over the Potomac. Just a slightly further south depiction, and it's blockbuster for basically everyone. A great run 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Tonights Euro seems most likely to be accurate with the usual spots jackpotting. No surprise. Central NVA jackpots rarely ever happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Pretty dramatic north trend tbh. The jackpot zone on tonight’s Euro (Penn) got almost nothing in last night’s run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Oh oh....first sign of the usual dc Miller b screw job by the euro. These 00z runs are killing us. This was my biggest fear....not the suppressed. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: We’re flirting with the coastal getting going too late that’s my only concern. And you said suppression was the most likely fail? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Regardless of how it plays out it seems every major models insists on a 48 hour event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We’re flirting with the coastal getting going too late that’s my only concern. I would say this is the most valid concern for the whole event. Miller B's/Hybrids are ALWAYS a tight rope balance for the Mid Atlantic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: THAT was one hell of a run for much of the sub-forum. Despite the bit of mixing during part of the coastal for the cities, everyone is puking dendrites at some point during the height of the coastal. US15 to I81 from Winchester to Harrisburg could be the deformation zone on this run verbatim. The whole area gets walloped in all. 1'+ for a ton of the sub. Even with the slightly farther north track of the surface low into southern Ohio, the goods are still delivered. I liked seeing a consistent hold of the ULL as it crosses into the Ohio Valley as well, strengthening again as it moves east. The 7H low cuts right over the Potomac. Just a slightly further south depiction, and it's blockbuster for basically everyone. A great run Correct, but the concern is that every Euro run over the last 3 runs has pushed the higher totals north. I hope that trend doesn’t continue tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 EURO not locked in yet, 30 miles or so either way 4 days out will make a huge difference....good night all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: THAT was one hell of a run for much of the sub-forum. Despite the bit of mixing during part of the coastal for the cities, everyone is puking dendrites at some point during the height of the coastal. US15 to I81 from Winchester to Harrisburg could be the deformation zone on this run verbatim. The whole area gets walloped in all. 1'+ for a ton of the sub. Even with the slightly farther north track of the surface low into southern Ohio, the goods are still delivered. I liked seeing a consistent hold of the ULL as it crosses into the Ohio Valley as well, strengthening again as it moves east. The 7H low cuts right over the Potomac. Just a slightly further south depiction, and it's blockbuster for basically everyone. A great run Thanks for your great and reasonable posts. I am gathering we want the h7 low to be like 50-75 miles S of us for perfection? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 7 am Tues And the scary part is I think the QPF it's showing over PA is too light given the firehose. Should be a massive area of 30+ from Garret county to Binghamton . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: Correct, but the concern is that every Euro run over the last 3 runs has pushed the higher totals north. I hope that trend doesn’t continue tomorrow. I believe his mention of where the h7 low passes is causing that. If we can get that to move south a tad, the higher totals will come back south... is that right @MillvilleWx? Or do i have that wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Shift the storm 30 miles SSE and that 24+ jackpot is right over us. Seasonal trend says not so fast however. I was never worried about suppression. I was worried about Harrisburg to Boston getting crushed. This setup reminds me of many classic Miller b’s that dumped 18+” on the New York metro area in the early 2000s when I lived up that way. Not all of them miss us down here, but some certainly do - especially from dc south. I’d take the euro / cmc blend and run with it but boy, are we playing with fire here if this trend North doesn’t halt big time by tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: If it trends north we'll likely do better on the front end...It's not a win-win...but some consolation This! These are rare to see, but there's two ways to actually score here. There's an easy way to score a nice low-end WSW criteria snowfall with the WAA piece ahead of the surface low into the OH Valley. The antecedent airmass ahead is ripe for the picking and is something everyone should be rooting for. I know you know how Miller B's work around back home. It'll be a tight rope walk as usual, but the prize could be epic. The key is keep the primary from going too far north if you ONLY want the coastal. Need the confluence to the NE to hold it's ground and the surface low to not tuck back over land like the Euro. That caused some boundary layer issues for about 6-12 hrs east of the fall line. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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