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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I guess the UK isn’t as bad as I thought but it kind of nickel and dimes it’s way to these totals over 48 hours and maybe the wrap around added up more then I thought but it was a lot of light stuff. 
 

Yes. 24 hours of light snow. I was going by the 6hr precip panels. I get lucky out here for a few hours and get banded. 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
9 minutes ago, nj2va said:
Will need to see the individual panels but UK at 96 has a 1006 low over southern OH/northern KY....looks like the transfer is starting based on the isobars.  120 due east of OC MD by about 100 miles.  144 985 near Nova Scotia.
Ninja’d by yoda

8-10 on ukmet

Seems like guidance is starting to converge on 4-6” from the WAA.  Higher potential from the coastal but that’s where guidance diverges right now so who knows.

Yes, I’d love a HECS but right now, that’s a low probability. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Looking at each individual panel of the ukmet it looks meh. Weak sauce. But it does snow on us for a long time so it adds up. We do dry slot/mix for about 12 hours also. 

It's a Miller B in the Mid Atlantic in a La Nina. What more can you say? I know we all love the big ones, but if we could manage a 5" - 10" event, I'd take it in a skinny minute. 

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

It's a Miller B in the Mid Atlantic in a La Nina. What more can you say? I know we all love the big ones, but if we could manage a 5" - 10" event, I'd take it in a skinny minute. 

Oh hell ya.  Im good with a 5-10” event. But it has potential for more. So I’ll root for the euro but frankly every run tonight has been acceptable. 

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Just now, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Oh hell ya.  Im good with a 5-10” event. But it has potential for more. So I’ll root for the euro but frankly every run tonight has been acceptable. 

That dosent even sound like you lol

HECS storms are 90% confined to El Niño’s for a reason. A 5-10” storm in a Nina is good. Doesn’t mean we can’t do better. 96 happened. 2006 came really close...I guess some isolated spots in MD did get 20” so for them that’s HECS level. But I guess my expectations this year are muted. Have to factor in the background state we’re trying to overcome. I do think the euro is more right here. But I guess I also expect it to come down to earth some. Maybe like a 60/40 compromise between the euro and other guidance. That’s still a pretty damn good storm. And if the euro caves and we get a 5-10” storm...that’s not the worst thing in the world. 

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's a Miller B in the Mid Atlantic in a La Nina. What more can you say? I know we all love the big ones, but if we could manage a 5" - 10" event, I'd take it in a skinny minute. 

 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Oh hell ya.  Im good with a 5-10” event. But it has potential for more. So I’ll root for the euro but frankly every run tonight has been acceptable. 

I just logged on and took a brief look at the 00z runs tonight. One of the best details I'm seeing is in regard to the first 6 hrs of the event with the WAA piece. The airmass ahead of the precip is ripe for a better snow consistency as boundary layer temps are pretty cold. The 850-700mb Frontogen on the CMC/Euro is pretty respectable, so the crystal structure would start out as more dendritic, then shift as the 850mb WAA noses in, and we proceed to larger aggregates with more rime exteriors. You don't need hefty precip in order to have some respectable totals for the area. The CMC is a beautiful compromise for WSW criteria snowfall. Of course, a 12z Euro presentation would be epic for a multitude of reasons, but the potential for a formidable event has increased in my eyes, just off the initial slug that presents itself on Sunday and Sunday night.

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FWIW the Canadian Ensembles def took a step to the Euro. More costal action. Not a full on cave but a good look. Still going at hr 105 but there's a 6" snow contour centered just west of DC. Awaiting further panels. 

edit: general 6-8" mean, super super close to the EPS, still snowing so might add on just a tiny bit to that

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@MillvilleWx btw have you looked at what mid February looks like?  We might have some fun times ahead. 

I haven't peeked at it yet, but I certainly will now that you mention it. We've got our own fun wind bags incoming for this weekend and pretty much half of next week, so I've been mulling over the data there. Could have a 3 day High Wind Warning for Guadalupe Pass out here next week. Good times! lol

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Would it be nice to have the GFS on board?  Sure.  Fine.   But with just this past week, who do you really want in our corner?   Euro could cave tonight for all we know, but if the Euro still won't let that bone go, I'm know which one I'm putting my faith in, especially given that other models are more closely aligned with it than the GFS.

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@MillvilleWx btw have you looked at what mid February looks like?  We might have some fun times ahead. 

 

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I haven't peeked at it yet, but I certainly will now that you mention it. We've got our own fun wind bags incoming for this weekend and pretty much half of next week, so I've been mulling over the data there. Could have a 3 day High Wind Warning for Guadalupe Pass out here next week. Good times! lol

NAO remains firmly negative as does AO. Looks like we finally get a -EPO in 10 days or so. Tonight's GFS advertising some serious cold 2nd week of February.

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