psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Cmc 13 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 CMC looks like a really big hit on WxBell with the kuchera! Snows for ~48 hours. pretty euro-esque... close to HECS territory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Really similar to the EPS for sure. 20 minutes to find out if the Euro is leading the charge. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 In terms of what can go wrong, seems suppression is now less likely, but the issue is whether we get a clean coastal transfer and the exact placement of that transfer relative to the coastline...for example we are not seeing the models giving the coastline or the VA NC border a raging snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Geps was almost a full cave to eps. It does drive the primary slightly further north but otherwise it’s pretty much gone to the euro. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Geps was almost a full cave to eps. It does drive the primary slightly further north but otherwise it’s pretty much gone to the euro. So.....we're putting $50 on the GFS, right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Aren’t we within a day of weighing the deterministic models more than the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: So.....we're putting $50 on the GFS, right? The gfs has been having some rough times lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: The gfs has been having some rough times lately. I agree.... so $100 on the GFS? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: Aren’t we within a day of weighing the deterministic models more than the ensembles? I thought the general rule was 72 hours. So that sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 It’s almost worth the euro caving to the GfS to see Ji’s reaction. Also, is the old adage of the Euro usually follows it’s cousin the UKMet still valid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Agree, huge movement on the GEPS. Big changes wrt comma shape and heaviest snows. Looking very euro tonight vs last several runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 @MillvilleWx btw have you looked at what mid February looks like? We might have some fun times ahead. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @MillvilleWx btw have you looked at what mid February looks like? We might have some fun times ahead. I haven't peeked at it yet, but I certainly will now that you mention it. We've got our own fun wind bags incoming for this weekend and pretty much half of next week, so I've been mulling over the data there. Could have a 3 day High Wind Warning for Guadalupe Pass out here next week. Good times! lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Ji said: All it takes is one cave by gfs and all gefs members follow Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Exactly. It’ll keep ticking each run, I’ll bump this later but I would bet before this storm happens the gfs has more snow on a suite than the euro for dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Would it be nice to have the GFS on board? Sure. Fine. But with just this past week, who do you really want in our corner? Euro could cave tonight for all we know, but if the Euro still won't let that bone go, I'm know which one I'm putting my faith in, especially given that other models are more closely aligned with it than the GFS. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I agree.... so $100 on the GFS? Is it the handoff/transfer that’s causing the gap of light precip in SE pa, N de etc. seems that region is stuck between dying waa and too far southeast to benefit from coastal.... aka how much for philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @MillvilleWx btw have you looked at what mid February looks like? We might have some fun times ahead. 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I haven't peeked at it yet, but I certainly will now that you mention it. We've got our own fun wind bags incoming for this weekend and pretty much half of next week, so I've been mulling over the data there. Could have a 3 day High Wind Warning for Guadalupe Pass out here next week. Good times! lol NAO remains firmly negative as does AO. Looks like we finally get a -EPO in 10 days or so. Tonight's GFS advertising some serious cold 2nd week of February. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 12+” area wide DC to Baltimore the CMC shows would be a fantastic storm in a Nina. Woof. EPS/Euro/CMC/Ukie and early looks of the NAM say game on - think it’s time we start to get a bit excited. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Is it the handoff/transfer that’s causing the gap of light precip in SE pa, N de etc. seems that region is stuck between dying waa and too far southeast to benefit from coastal.... aka how much for philly? Pretty much. And it's certainly a cause for concern for anyone in the Mid Atlantic in general. Hopefully the Euro stays the ground because I sure like what the CMC/Euro combo is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Helluva PZF Sunday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Night Snow. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday Snow likely before 1pm, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Pretty much. And it's certainly a cause for concern for anyone in the Mid Atlantic in general. Hopefully the Euro stays the ground because I sure like what the CMC/Euro combo is doing. Agreed. Have a feeling nyc ends up with 20” by the time this takes shape. As somebody who grew up in the NW suburbs of NYC, this type of setup is RIPE for a costal New England bomb now that we see the confluence likely won’t be overbearing and suppress the storm. The question is... does it get going early / south enough for the mid Atlantic to get in on the coastal too? 12z euro / CMC blend is exactly what we need to see for this to come together around these parts. Here’s to hoping! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Quasievil said: This hobby is disturbing. I can’t believe I’m staying up for a PBP of the Euro. Bring it!!!! You think that's disturbing? Try spending tens of thousands of dollars, taking copious math courses, drowning yourself in coffee/tears/booze, and then subjecting yourself to no sleep for the rest of your life so you can see how water condenses and air moves. 7 2 23 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 WB 0Z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 am Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 998mb on KS/MO border at 72 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 pm sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Everything looks shifted a tad ESE at h5 comparing 00z 72 to 12z 84 IMO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Closed upper-level low over Missouri at hour 72. Confluence has backed off a bit more vs 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Sat 7pm 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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