Chris78 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Para GFS is about 4-6” from the WAA - dry slot - backside snow/snow showers of 2-4”. Seems we have pretty good agreement for a 4-8/5-10" snowfall at a minimum. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Let’s see how the Ukmet trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Ya bro. That's not gonna work for me Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk WHAT? This is breaking news to me. GFS took another step to the Euro IMO. GGEM took a bigger step and was close to a Euro-like solution....get the phase more south and you’d be happy (maybe). Also...can you take the ‘sent from my’ off your posts? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Lol CMC is 8 to 14 inches and Ji isn't happy with it 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 WB OZ GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 @psuhoffman can I snag a link to those cmc images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 CMC is a nice solution, probably best to go to bed on that... really hope the Euro doesn't show a suppressed solution, I will take wacky thermals/dry-slotting etc. over another supression event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, SnowDreamer said: @psuhoffman can I snag a link to those cmc images? https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Make sure to change it to the current run though of 00z 1-28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Gefs is SLOWLY caving Imo 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Lol CMC is 8 to 14 inches and Ji isn't happy with itI never said that. This was all in reference to the Para run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 00z UKIE at 96 and 120 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: @psuhoffman can I snag a link to those cmc images? https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Uk no bueno. First really bad run tonight Imo. Weak sauce with the WAA. Drives the primary north. Weak sauce and north with the CCB. Diffuse mess of a coastal. ETA: not as bad as I thought when adding it all up. But like 48 hours of mostly light precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Will need to see the individual panels but UK at 96 has a 1006 low over southern OH/northern KY....looks like the transfer is starting based on the isobars. 120 due east of OC MD by about 100 miles. 144 985 near Nova Scotia. Ninja’d by yoda8-10 on ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Uk is a nice thump for everyone 4-8. Then light snow for another day. 6 plus for everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Uk no bueno. First really bad run tonight Imo. Weak sauce with the WAA. Drives the primary north. Weak sauce and north with the CCB. Diffuse mess of a coastal. The euro is all alone on an island man. And its close to its wheelhouse although the transfer to NC is still 120 hours out per 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Uk no bueno. First really bad run tonight Imo. Weak sauce with the WAA. Drives the primary north. Weak sauce and north with the CCB. Diffuse mess of a coastal. The euro is all alone on an island man. And its close to its wheelhouse although the transfer to NC is still 120 hours out per q2z run. Um CMC was pretty close to the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Uk no bueno. First really bad run tonight Imo. Weak sauce with the WAA. Drives the primary north. Weak sauce and north with the CCB. Diffuse mess of a coastal. 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Uk is a nice thump for everyone 4-8. Then light snow for another day. 6 plus for everyone. Whew. Uhh, which is it? Both? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I guess the UK isn’t as bad as I thought but it kind of nickel and dimes it’s way to these totals over 48 hours and maybe the wrap around added up more then I thought but it was a lot of light stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Since the 12z euro run...we have had a combined 7 model runs by various models to get to euro level and only one came close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I guess the UK isn’t as bad as I thought but it kind of nickel and dimes it’s way to these totals over 48 hours and maybe the wrap around added up more then I thought but it was a lot of light stuff. Yes. 24 hours of light snow. I was going by the 6hr precip panels. I get lucky out here for a few hours and get banded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: Will need to see the individual panels but UK at 96 has a 1006 low over southern OH/northern KY....looks like the transfer is starting based on the isobars. 120 due east of OC MD by about 100 miles. 144 985 near Nova Scotia. Ninja’d by yoda 8-10 on ukmet Seems like guidance is starting to converge on 4-6” from the WAA. Higher potential from the coastal but that’s where guidance diverges right now so who knows. Yes, I’d love a HECS but right now, that’s a low probability. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Looking at each individual panel of the ukmet it looks meh. Weak sauce. But it does snow on us for a long time so it adds up. We do dry slot/mix for about 12 hours also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Aren’t most models 3-5 days out now showing a mean of over 4 inches???! Not 20 inches, but this is DC, not Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Looking at each individual panel of the ukmet it looks meh. Weak sauce. But it does snow on us for a long time so it adds up. We do dry slot/mix for about 12 hours also. It's a Miller B in the Mid Atlantic in a La Nina. What more can you say? I know we all love the big ones, but if we could manage a 5" - 10" event, I'd take it in a skinny minute. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: It's a Miller B in the Mid Atlantic in a La Nina. What more can you say? I know we all love the big ones, but if we could manage a 5" - 10" event, I'd take it in a skinny minute. Oh hell ya. Im good with a 5-10” event. But it has potential for more. So I’ll root for the euro but frankly every run tonight has been acceptable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oh hell ya. Im good with a 5-10” event. But it has potential for more. So I’ll root for the euro but frankly every run tonight has been acceptable. That dosent even sound like you lol HECS storms are 90% confined to El Niño’s for a reason. A 5-10” storm in a Nina is good. Doesn’t mean we can’t do better. 96 happened. 2006 came really close...I guess some isolated spots in MD did get 20” so for them that’s HECS level. But I guess my expectations this year are muted. Have to factor in the background state we’re trying to overcome. I do think the euro is more right here. But I guess I also expect it to come down to earth some. Maybe like a 60/40 compromise between the euro and other guidance. That’s still a pretty damn good storm. And if the euro caves and we get a 5-10” storm...that’s not the worst thing in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's a Miller B in the Mid Atlantic in a La Nina. What more can you say? I know we all love the big ones, but if we could manage a 5" - 10" event, I'd take it in a skinny minute. Just now, psuhoffman said: Oh hell ya. Im good with a 5-10” event. But it has potential for more. So I’ll root for the euro but frankly every run tonight has been acceptable. I just logged on and took a brief look at the 00z runs tonight. One of the best details I'm seeing is in regard to the first 6 hrs of the event with the WAA piece. The airmass ahead of the precip is ripe for a better snow consistency as boundary layer temps are pretty cold. The 850-700mb Frontogen on the CMC/Euro is pretty respectable, so the crystal structure would start out as more dendritic, then shift as the 850mb WAA noses in, and we proceed to larger aggregates with more rime exteriors. You don't need hefty precip in order to have some respectable totals for the area. The CMC is a beautiful compromise for WSW criteria snowfall. Of course, a 12z Euro presentation would be epic for a multitude of reasons, but the potential for a formidable event has increased in my eyes, just off the initial slug that presents itself on Sunday and Sunday night. 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 WB EURO 0Z last night, 12Z today, tonight???!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 FWIW the Canadian Ensembles def took a step to the Euro. More costal action. Not a full on cave but a good look. Still going at hr 105 but there's a 6" snow contour centered just west of DC. Awaiting further panels. edit: general 6-8" mean, super super close to the EPS, still snowing so might add on just a tiny bit to that 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts