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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And I'm confused as to what is causing such a difference...how is it that the low captures south on the Euro but not on the GFS? (Apologies if this has been covered already)

It all has to do with the primary low. Euro weakens it faster, it dies over KY and the coastal transfer is faster. Flow turns more NE which locks the cold air in, 500 low cuts off and the low phases on the Euro. GFS the low is stronger and tracks more north which pumps in warmer air, gets a dry slot going and delays the coastal and 500 closes much later.  Looks subtle but huge difference!

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Read my post to high risk. Imo it’s in how they handle the h5 as it enters the Midwest and starts to feel the effects of the flow to the northeast.  My money is on the euro. Not just because it’s has superior physics but it makes more sense Imo. 

Just posted this to an earlier comment. Looks so subtle but big difference. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Read my post to high risk. Imo it’s in how they handle the h5 as it enters the Midwest and starts to feel the effects of the flow to the northeast.  My money is on the euro. Not just because it’s has superior physics but it makes more sense Imo. 

That’s what I’ve been looking at it too.  NAM is much closer to Euro than GFS.  

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Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

It all has to do with the primary low. Euro weakens it faster, it dies over KY and the coastal transfer is faster. Flow turns more NE which locks the cold air in, 500 low cuts off and the slow phases on the Euro. GFS the low is stronger and tracks more north which pumps in warmer air, gets a dry slot going and delays the coastal and 500 closes much later.  Looks subtle but huge difference!

All weenie hope asides, the 1,000,000 question is, which one is right? More interesting tracking and analyzing to go.

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10 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Please correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems like more of the other models support the Euro, and GFS has little support from the other models at this point.  

Correcting.....Euro is the only model with a clean and near perfect phase and timing. No one will say it but the Euro is on an Island in that regard.

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Miller B’s are very tricky at this latitude regardless. March 2014 snowquester was a Miller B. The toughest part is getting the primary to transfer at the right time to the coastal. If it’s delayed it will mess up the whole process because warm air comes in and so does the dry slot if the primary remains dominant and tracks north of us...we downslope on the back side. Coastal gets going but the 500 is open and a mess. That’s the #1 concern. Fortunately it’s not March, but same process exists. 

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Correcting.....Euro is the only model with a clean and near perfect phase and timing. No one will say it but the Euro is on an Island in that regard.

Thank you! Imo from reading all the different met comments, PSU etc, seems like GFS solution isn’t picking up on the CAD well. 

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