Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I don't hate that solution... it is simple and clean, with little rain to melt the several inches that falls initially due to dry slotting. Any mid-lvl low induced snow showers later in the event would be gravy at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And I'm confused as to what is causing such a difference...how is it that the low captures south on the Euro but not on the GFS? (Apologies if this has been covered already) It all has to do with the primary low. Euro weakens it faster, it dies over KY and the coastal transfer is faster. Flow turns more NE which locks the cold air in, 500 low cuts off and the low phases on the Euro. GFS the low is stronger and tracks more north which pumps in warmer air, gets a dry slot going and delays the coastal and 500 closes much later. Looks subtle but huge difference! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Read my post to high risk. Imo it’s in how they handle the h5 as it enters the Midwest and starts to feel the effects of the flow to the northeast. My money is on the euro. Not just because it’s has superior physics but it makes more sense Imo. Just posted this to an earlier comment. Looks so subtle but big difference. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Read my post to high risk. Imo it’s in how they handle the h5 as it enters the Midwest and starts to feel the effects of the flow to the northeast. My money is on the euro. Not just because it’s has superior physics but it makes more sense Imo. That’s what I’ve been looking at it too. NAM is much closer to Euro than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 There is a clean phase on the GFS this time. Happens a little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said: I mean GFS isn't terrible. It’s going to be warmer with SE flow. Fast changeover especially the cities given that scenario. Some of this would be overdone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: It all has to do with the primary low. Euro weakens it faster, it dies over KY and the coastal transfer is faster. Flow turns more NE which locks the cold air in, 500 low cuts off and the slow phases on the Euro. GFS the low is stronger and tracks more north which pumps in warmer air, gets a dry slot going and delays the coastal and 500 closes much later. Looks subtle but huge difference! All weenie hope asides, the 1,000,000 question is, which one is right? More interesting tracking and analyzing to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I'll take the WAA from the GFS and the coastal from the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The GFS has been performing piss poor recently, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The Euro has Winchester in the bullseye. The GFS has us the driest in the area. Wild stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: The gfs is a disaster. And it's not caving like it did last weekend Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Patience grasshopper 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: The GFS has been performing piss poor recently, no? At day 4/5 it’s been bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Most of us (not all I know JI) would take the GFS on any normal day, but we know we have upside. Nothing else left except see you all at 1:15am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Earlier tonight I watched Bernie Rayno, whom I personally respect. He went toward Euro and DT also. DT had a good explanation that the GFS overdoes the northern branch and under on the southern. It’s showing here. That high to the north is strong, must be a better CAD. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Please correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems like more of the other models support the Euro, and GFS has little support from the other models at this point. Correcting.....Euro is the only model with a clean and near perfect phase and timing. No one will say it but the Euro is on an Island in that regard. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Y’all gonna like the Cmc 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 CMC is south of the GFS at 84. And much better CAD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Cmc not a full cave to the euro but definitely moved most of the way that direction. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Y’all gonna like the Cmc Only out to 72...what;'s the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Only out to 72...what;'s the goods I was thinking the same. LOW sitting over southwest MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Miller B’s are very tricky at this latitude regardless. March 2014 snowquester was a Miller B. The toughest part is getting the primary to transfer at the right time to the coastal. If it’s delayed it will mess up the whole process because warm air comes in and so does the dry slot if the primary remains dominant and tracks north of us...we downslope on the back side. Coastal gets going but the 500 is open and a mess. That’s the #1 concern. Fortunately it’s not March, but same process exists. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Correcting.....Euro is the only model with a clean and near perfect phase and timing. No one will say it but the Euro is on an Island in that regard. Thank you! Imo from reading all the different met comments, PSU etc, seems like GFS solution isn’t picking up on the CAD well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Yea cmc is nice. Cousin of euro. All day snow Monday Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Canadian is kinda bootleg with the details but it handles the large scale features more adroitly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Only out to 72...what;'s the goods 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Get the cmc transfer 100 miles south.....Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yes. Yes to all that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The canadian is a nice thump. 12 hours of mod-heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 @stormtracker 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The GEFS mean is pretty ugly tbh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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