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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Secondary track is perfect. The reason it’s not the euro is the primary gains too much latitude before the transfer and the h5 instead of digging and amplifying in phase with the secondary opens up as it approaches. In other words it’s a messy transfer. Fix that and it’s a euro like solution. 

So I'm wondering how long it'll be until we get consensus on the coastal track...I mean the euro and gfs can't be at this stalemate too much longer!

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

GFS has what appears to be (IMHO) a very poor representation of the cold air damming at 12z Sunday. 

Was gonna mention the same thing.  When you showed the comparison between the NAM and GFS thermals...and then I'm looking at this run of the GFS like...whaaa

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4 minutes ago, high risk said:

GFS has what appears to be (IMHO) a very poor representation of the cold air damming at 12z Sunday. 

It got a little better this run but yea. The gfs and euro seriously diverge when the upper low gets to MO and starts to feel the effects of the blocked flow to the northeast. The gfs continues to lift the wave right into the suppressive flow and so it then opens up and it becomes a diffuse mess before eventually being forced southeast.  Euro turns SE from MO and amplified the h5 right to the coast.  The other globals are somewhere in between with that.

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4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

GFS and Euro are worlds apart. This close in, one will bust embarrassingly. 

And I'm confused as to what is causing such a difference...how is it that the low captures south on the Euro but not on the GFS? (Apologies if this has been covered already)

Edit: Psu answered my question, lol

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5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

GFS and Euro are worlds apart. This close in, one will bust embarrassingly. 

Read my post to high risk. Imo it’s in how they handle the h5 as it enters the Midwest and starts to feel the effects of the flow to the northeast.  My money is on the euro. Not just because it’s has superior physics but it makes more sense Imo. 

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