Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Secondary track is perfect. The reason it’s not the euro is the primary gains too much latitude before the transfer and the h5 instead of digging and amplifying in phase with the secondary opens up as it approaches. In other words it’s a messy transfer. Fix that and it’s a euro like solution. So I'm wondering how long it'll be until we get consensus on the coastal track...I mean the euro and gfs can't be at this stalemate too much longer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Closes off over Kansas 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: So I'm wondering how long it'll be until we get consensus on the coastal track...I mean the euro and gfs can't be at this stalemate too much longer! 72 hours from onset 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Through 72, the vort is stronger than prior runs which has been a big difference from the Euro. GFS weakens the vort as it heads east whereas Euro holds/strengthens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS with a serious thump Sunday morning. Beautiful WAA incoming. Jumping at 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Still doesn’t get it done though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Gfs continues its southward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Baby steps towards the euro. I am mostly satisfied with 00z suite so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 at 90, rain/sn line at the potomac. I mean...ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 like 5-8" on the front end and the dryslot coincides with the flip, so should be mostly all snow for most of us 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I mean, I am such a beggar at that point, I would take that 4-6 inch WAA thump the GFS has and be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Nasty dryslot like the ICON during the jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Deeper primary by 3 mb over last 3 runs in the midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Decent thump on the front, lets see what ends up happening on the back. Not a full cave yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS has what appears to be (IMHO) a very poor representation of the cold air damming at 12z Sunday. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Back to snow at 108 out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Hr 90 ground zero ROA to CHO and still doing work up into the main forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, high risk said: GFS has what appears to be (IMHO) a very poor representation of the cold air damming at 12z Sunday. Was gonna mention the same thing. When you showed the comparison between the NAM and GFS thermals...and then I'm looking at this run of the GFS like...whaaa 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS and Euro are worlds apart. This close in, one will bust embarrassingly. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 FWIW the GFS does have more total snow than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: GFS and Euro are worlds apart. This close in, one will bust embarrassingly. Have to hand it to the GFS, it has shown, mostly, the same evolution for the last three days...consistently. LOW into Ohio. I don’t know what this means. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Extremely frustrating gfs won't cave Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: GFS and Euro are worlds apart. This close in, one will bust embarrassingly. Please correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems like more of the other models support the Euro, and GFS has little support from the other models at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 84 hours from snow making it into DC and the GFS and Euro couldn’t be more different. It does seem like GFS took another step to the Euro (and as PSU pointed out, ICON would have been a Euro-like solution had the phase been cleaner). I loved the WAA on both 00z models tonight though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, high risk said: GFS has what appears to be (IMHO) a very poor representation of the cold air damming at 12z Sunday. It got a little better this run but yea. The gfs and euro seriously diverge when the upper low gets to MO and starts to feel the effects of the blocked flow to the northeast. The gfs continues to lift the wave right into the suppressive flow and so it then opens up and it becomes a diffuse mess before eventually being forced southeast. Euro turns SE from MO and amplified the h5 right to the coast. The other globals are somewhere in between with that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: GFS and Euro are worlds apart. This close in, one will bust embarrassingly. And I'm confused as to what is causing such a difference...how is it that the low captures south on the Euro but not on the GFS? (Apologies if this has been covered already) Edit: Psu answered my question, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The GFS did make another step towards a cleaner phase. Has been for a couple runs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: GFS and Euro are worlds apart. This close in, one will bust embarrassingly. Read my post to high risk. Imo it’s in how they handle the h5 as it enters the Midwest and starts to feel the effects of the flow to the northeast. My money is on the euro. Not just because it’s has superior physics but it makes more sense Imo. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 lol...for DC metro...5-10" from midnight to noon...then 36 hours of drizzle, snizzle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I mean GFS isn't terrible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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