stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 at 90, rain/sn line at the potomac. I mean...ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I mean, I am such a beggar at that point, I would take that 4-6 inch WAA thump the GFS has and be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Nasty dryslot like the ICON during the jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Deeper primary by 3 mb over last 3 runs in the midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Decent thump on the front, lets see what ends up happening on the back. Not a full cave yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS has what appears to be (IMHO) a very poor representation of the cold air damming at 12z Sunday. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Back to snow at 108 out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Hr 90 ground zero ROA to CHO and still doing work up into the main forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, high risk said: GFS has what appears to be (IMHO) a very poor representation of the cold air damming at 12z Sunday. Was gonna mention the same thing. When you showed the comparison between the NAM and GFS thermals...and then I'm looking at this run of the GFS like...whaaa 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS and Euro are worlds apart. This close in, one will bust embarrassingly. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 FWIW the GFS does have more total snow than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: GFS and Euro are worlds apart. This close in, one will bust embarrassingly. Have to hand it to the GFS, it has shown, mostly, the same evolution for the last three days...consistently. LOW into Ohio. I don’t know what this means. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Extremely frustrating gfs won't cave Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: GFS and Euro are worlds apart. This close in, one will bust embarrassingly. Please correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems like more of the other models support the Euro, and GFS has little support from the other models at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 84 hours from snow making it into DC and the GFS and Euro couldn’t be more different. It does seem like GFS took another step to the Euro (and as PSU pointed out, ICON would have been a Euro-like solution had the phase been cleaner). I loved the WAA on both 00z models tonight though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, high risk said: GFS has what appears to be (IMHO) a very poor representation of the cold air damming at 12z Sunday. It got a little better this run but yea. The gfs and euro seriously diverge when the upper low gets to MO and starts to feel the effects of the blocked flow to the northeast. The gfs continues to lift the wave right into the suppressive flow and so it then opens up and it becomes a diffuse mess before eventually being forced southeast. Euro turns SE from MO and amplified the h5 right to the coast. The other globals are somewhere in between with that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: GFS and Euro are worlds apart. This close in, one will bust embarrassingly. And I'm confused as to what is causing such a difference...how is it that the low captures south on the Euro but not on the GFS? (Apologies if this has been covered already) Edit: Psu answered my question, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The GFS did make another step towards a cleaner phase. Has been for a couple runs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: GFS and Euro are worlds apart. This close in, one will bust embarrassingly. Read my post to high risk. Imo it’s in how they handle the h5 as it enters the Midwest and starts to feel the effects of the flow to the northeast. My money is on the euro. Not just because it’s has superior physics but it makes more sense Imo. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I mean GFS isn't terrible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I don't hate that solution... it is simple and clean, with little rain to melt the several inches that falls initially due to dry slotting. Any mid-lvl low induced snow showers later in the event would be gravy at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And I'm confused as to what is causing such a difference...how is it that the low captures south on the Euro but not on the GFS? (Apologies if this has been covered already) It all has to do with the primary low. Euro weakens it faster, it dies over KY and the coastal transfer is faster. Flow turns more NE which locks the cold air in, 500 low cuts off and the low phases on the Euro. GFS the low is stronger and tracks more north which pumps in warmer air, gets a dry slot going and delays the coastal and 500 closes much later. Looks subtle but huge difference! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Read my post to high risk. Imo it’s in how they handle the h5 as it enters the Midwest and starts to feel the effects of the flow to the northeast. My money is on the euro. Not just because it’s has superior physics but it makes more sense Imo. Just posted this to an earlier comment. Looks so subtle but big difference. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Read my post to high risk. Imo it’s in how they handle the h5 as it enters the Midwest and starts to feel the effects of the flow to the northeast. My money is on the euro. Not just because it’s has superior physics but it makes more sense Imo. That’s what I’ve been looking at it too. NAM is much closer to Euro than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 There is a clean phase on the GFS this time. Happens a little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said: I mean GFS isn't terrible. It’s going to be warmer with SE flow. Fast changeover especially the cities given that scenario. Some of this would be overdone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: It all has to do with the primary low. Euro weakens it faster, it dies over KY and the coastal transfer is faster. Flow turns more NE which locks the cold air in, 500 low cuts off and the slow phases on the Euro. GFS the low is stronger and tracks more north which pumps in warmer air, gets a dry slot going and delays the coastal and 500 closes much later. Looks subtle but huge difference! All weenie hope asides, the 1,000,000 question is, which one is right? More interesting tracking and analyzing to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I'll take the WAA from the GFS and the coastal from the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The GFS has been performing piss poor recently, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The Euro has Winchester in the bullseye. The GFS has us the driest in the area. Wild stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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