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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


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Just now, psuhoffman said:

1996 tucked

25174BA0-A1B6-4F59-934A-3158C1DFDD37.jpeg.b2fcc22205e847fb91ef1febe407cdaf.jpeg

1/25/2000 tucked

AE372739-D0C0-4FA7-BCFC-DD85EBEED6E5.gif.9344e4576f3cd6c2bb9ebb8d8346e83c.gif

2/12/2006  tucked

189A5206-E82D-42F0-93B2-D4B11DB74231.gif.9681107e0103b693cb0d3062d19861ba.gif

Feb 6 2010 Tucked

5C3BAC31-0E6B-4DE7-806E-96695B48BA17.gif.8e39d631e4249d5f2169fda2088066f4.gif

Feb 11 2010 tucked

BD732ABC-BCF7-4D23-9103-E05FCF0FCE79.gif.c484b02f7f38663b0bc0251c6b75c5cd.gif
Feb 13 2014 Tucked

A35ADA8F-E72D-4E16-BC6F-2B32CB047A0F.gif.57860d02dbd02ed03bfc513a22bcbb77.gif

2016 Tucked

9B760F3A-7FEF-4055-ADC2-914EA46ECE7A.gif.6ab620accc72f3ac95d78a32f35832ba.gif

Almost every one of our best snowstorms of the last 30 years was tucked in right against the Delmarva coast.  The only exceptions were Dec 2009 and Feb 2003.  2009 managed that because it was a very amplified stj wave out of the gulf with an amazing moisture fetch that was 985mb over eastern NC  It also had an inverted trough into WV so that combo meant an incredibly expansive heavy precip shield to the northwest of the track. It tracked NE from the outer banks. Frankly a less intense and less juiced up STJ system with that track likely doesn’t provide big totals in the NW 1/3 of our region normally. That track would usually fringe places like Winchester or Hagerstown or Frederick.  PD2 was a west to east STJ wave overrunning an Arctic high.  The coastal was weak sauce here and had very little contribution to that event.   But the rule on an HECS here is we want the low tucked into the Delmarva coast. 

 

 

Yep. We want it just a little off OCMD. That's out sweet spot. It gets too far east and we end up with Boxing Day 2010 when it all slides east of us and Philly gets clipped and NYC, NJ and NE get buried.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

1996 tucked

25174BA0-A1B6-4F59-934A-3158C1DFDD37.jpeg.b2fcc22205e847fb91ef1febe407cdaf.jpeg

1/25/2000 tucked

AE372739-D0C0-4FA7-BCFC-DD85EBEED6E5.gif.9344e4576f3cd6c2bb9ebb8d8346e83c.gif

2/12/2006  tucked

189A5206-E82D-42F0-93B2-D4B11DB74231.gif.9681107e0103b693cb0d3062d19861ba.gif

Feb 6 2010 Tucked

5C3BAC31-0E6B-4DE7-806E-96695B48BA17.gif.8e39d631e4249d5f2169fda2088066f4.gif

Feb 11 2010 tucked

BD732ABC-BCF7-4D23-9103-E05FCF0FCE79.gif.c484b02f7f38663b0bc0251c6b75c5cd.gif
Feb 13 2014 Tucked

A35ADA8F-E72D-4E16-BC6F-2B32CB047A0F.gif.57860d02dbd02ed03bfc513a22bcbb77.gif

2016 Tucked

9B760F3A-7FEF-4055-ADC2-914EA46ECE7A.gif.6ab620accc72f3ac95d78a32f35832ba.gif

Almost every one of our best snowstorms of the last 30 years was tucked in right against the Delmarva coast.  The only exceptions were Dec 2009 and Feb 2003.  2009 managed that because it was a very amplified stj wave out of the gulf with an amazing moisture fetch that was 985mb over eastern NC  It also had an inverted trough into WV so that combo meant an incredibly expansive heavy precip shield to the northwest of the track. It tracked NE from the outer banks. Frankly a less intense and less juiced up STJ system with that track likely doesn’t provide big totals in the NW 1/3 of our region normally. That track would usually fringe places like Winchester or Hagerstown or Frederick.  PD2 was a west to east STJ wave overrunning an Arctic high.  The coastal was weak sauce here and had very little contribution to that event.   But the rule on an HECS here is we want the low tucked into the Delmarva coast. 

 

 

You’re a goddamn weather encyclopedia. Love it man. 

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow...so the 2 feet would've been even more? Awesome

Yes. Baltimore City flipped to sleet like 8 p.m. that night during PDII, and it sleeted till dawn, when it briefly flipped back to heavy snow.  Had it stayed all snow, which I think it did as close as Reistertown area, Baltimore City would have easily eclipsed 3 feet from that storm. 

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47 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Lol. I didn't see your prior post but I thought 18z was an improvement.  

 

BTW...can I pick up my lawn chair I left there 4 years ago before the blizzard hits . :sizzle:@nw baltimore wxwas a witness 

Anytime just drop of the check to cover the very reasonable 50 cent daily storage fee.  That comes to $730.  

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

he only exceptions were Dec 2009 and Feb 2003.  2009 managed that because it was a very amplified stj wave out of the gulf with an amazing moisture fetch that was 985mb over eastern NC  It also had an inverted trough into WV so that combo meant an incredibly expansive heavy precip shield to the northwest of the track. It tracked NE from the outer banks. Frankly a less intense and less juiced up STJ system with that track likely doesn’t provide big totals in the NW 1/3 of our region normally. That track would usually fringe places like Winchester or Hagerstown or Frederick.  PD2 was a west to east STJ wave overrunning an Arctic high.

Excellent post and visuals ! 

And here in my area both of those were the biggest snows in the last 20 years. Dec 2009  measured 26 inches,  and Feb 2003 at 22 inches.

In Feb 03 , if not for the sleet would have easily been 30 inches here. Seems what works for your area and for areas near the coastal plain are uniquely different,  but makes sense based on your location.  

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Just now, nj2va said:

It’s not a coastal rider.  The SLP panels are on WxBell already and it forms near OBX then heads NE about 100 miles off ORF then heads NW from there and makes “landfall” at ACY.

Thats what I figured. You can see it trying to start jumping to OBX at 93. Now I just want to see the CCB. It does have a pretty nasty dryslot out this way during the jump though. 

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

Thats what I figured. You can see it trying to start jumping to OBX at 93. Now I just want to see the CCB. It does have a pretty nasty dryslot out this way during the jump though. 

So little data available with this model but it looks like 0.5”+ snow for DC from the WAA.  Similar for Winchester.   Seems like places south of Baltimore miss out on the coastal action just by looking at the total precip maps.  

It’s such a wonky evolution.  I like the WAA a lot.

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10 minutes ago, frd said:

Excellent post and visuals ! 

And here in my area both of those were the biggest snows in the last 20 years. Dec 2009  measured 26 inches,  and Feb 2003 at 22 inches.

In Feb 03 , if not for the sleet would have easily been 30 inches here. Seems what works for your area and for areas near the coastal plain are uniquely different,  but makes sense based on your location.  

Not just me specifically those are the biggest storms to affect our region as a whole the last 30 years. However...the Delmarva and southeast VA are a different climo zone when it comes to snow. They can do “ok” when DC and Balt and places west get a HECS but honestly for you to “Jack” required a different type of storm usually. For Baltimore and IAD and me to be getting 20”+ usually means your mixed or dry slotting because to get that kind of moisture feed here the low is too close for you. There are some rare exceptions like (ironically) PD1 and PD2 (for different reasons) but those are rare exceptions.   

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

So little data available with this model but it looks like 0.5”+ snow for DC from the WAA.  Similar for Winchester.   Seems like places south of Baltimore miss out on the coastal action just by looking at the total precip maps.  

It’s such a wonky evolution.  I like the WAA a lot.

A couple of the EPS members had that jump east on them. Anything is still possible at this point. Which is why I want as a big of a WAA thump as we can get. Give me the easy snow. I will worry about the rest later. 

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20 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It’s not a coastal rider.  The SLP panels are on WxBell already and it forms near OBX then heads NE about 100 miles off ORF then heads NW from there and makes “landfall” at ACY.

Secondary track is perfect. The reason it’s not the euro is the primary gains too much latitude before the transfer and the h5 instead of digging and amplifying in phase with the secondary opens up as it approaches. In other words it’s a messy transfer. Fix that and it’s a euro like solution. 

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