osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: 1996 tucked 1/25/2000 tucked 2/12/2006 tucked Feb 6 2010 Tucked Feb 11 2010 tucked Feb 13 2014 Tucked 2016 Tucked Almost every one of our best snowstorms of the last 30 years was tucked in right against the Delmarva coast. The only exceptions were Dec 2009 and Feb 2003. 2009 managed that because it was a very amplified stj wave out of the gulf with an amazing moisture fetch that was 985mb over eastern NC It also had an inverted trough into WV so that combo meant an incredibly expansive heavy precip shield to the northwest of the track. It tracked NE from the outer banks. Frankly a less intense and less juiced up STJ system with that track likely doesn’t provide big totals in the NW 1/3 of our region normally. That track would usually fringe places like Winchester or Hagerstown or Frederick. PD2 was a west to east STJ wave overrunning an Arctic high. The coastal was weak sauce here and had very little contribution to that event. But the rule on an HECS here is we want the low tucked into the Delmarva coast. Yep. We want it just a little off OCMD. That's out sweet spot. It gets too far east and we end up with Boxing Day 2010 when it all slides east of us and Philly gets clipped and NYC, NJ and NE get buried. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: 1996 tucked 1/25/2000 tucked 2/12/2006 tucked Feb 6 2010 Tucked Feb 11 2010 tucked Feb 13 2014 Tucked 2016 Tucked Almost every one of our best snowstorms of the last 30 years was tucked in right against the Delmarva coast. The only exceptions were Dec 2009 and Feb 2003. 2009 managed that because it was a very amplified stj wave out of the gulf with an amazing moisture fetch that was 985mb over eastern NC It also had an inverted trough into WV so that combo meant an incredibly expansive heavy precip shield to the northwest of the track. It tracked NE from the outer banks. Frankly a less intense and less juiced up STJ system with that track likely doesn’t provide big totals in the NW 1/3 of our region normally. That track would usually fringe places like Winchester or Hagerstown or Frederick. PD2 was a west to east STJ wave overrunning an Arctic high. The coastal was weak sauce here and had very little contribution to that event. But the rule on an HECS here is we want the low tucked into the Delmarva coast. You’re a goddamn weather encyclopedia. Love it man. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Please take the images out when quoting long posts. Thank you 11 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wow...so the 2 feet would've been even more? Awesome Yes. Baltimore City flipped to sleet like 8 p.m. that night during PDII, and it sleeted till dawn, when it briefly flipped back to heavy snow. Had it stayed all snow, which I think it did as close as Reistertown area, Baltimore City would have easily eclipsed 3 feet from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: Please take the images out when quoting long posts. Thank you Good post @psuhoffman and I agree with the above 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 47 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Lol. I didn't see your prior post but I thought 18z was an improvement. BTW...can I pick up my lawn chair I left there 4 years ago before the blizzard hits . @nw baltimore wxwas a witness Anytime just drop of the check to cover the very reasonable 50 cent daily storage fee. That comes to $730. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 At 72, 0z ICON is slower and a little deeper than the GFS. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: he only exceptions were Dec 2009 and Feb 2003. 2009 managed that because it was a very amplified stj wave out of the gulf with an amazing moisture fetch that was 985mb over eastern NC It also had an inverted trough into WV so that combo meant an incredibly expansive heavy precip shield to the northwest of the track. It tracked NE from the outer banks. Frankly a less intense and less juiced up STJ system with that track likely doesn’t provide big totals in the NW 1/3 of our region normally. That track would usually fringe places like Winchester or Hagerstown or Frederick. PD2 was a west to east STJ wave overrunning an Arctic high. Excellent post and visuals ! And here in my area both of those were the biggest snows in the last 20 years. Dec 2009 measured 26 inches, and Feb 2003 at 22 inches. In Feb 03 , if not for the sleet would have easily been 30 inches here. Seems what works for your area and for areas near the coastal plain are uniquely different, but makes sense based on your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 ICON has a coastal rider (secondary basically travels straight north after the energy transfer)... not a good solution for us (although still likely 3-6 inches), but it is only the ICON. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 WAA on the ICON is beastly. Looks like its trying to start jumping at 93. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Through 93 icon is stronger with the primary and further north . Confluence is further ne 3 mb weaker though and it looks like the transfer will happen sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: ICON has a coastal rider... not a good solution for us (although still likely 3-6 inches), but it is only the ICON. Where are you getting it past 93? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: Where are you getting it past 93? Maybe yesterday’s cache. 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Great WAA thump on the ICON. Cold air damning more pronounced. Looks like it’s gonna be a decent run all considering even if the coastal doesn’t pan out 100% 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: Where are you getting it past 93? It’s not a coastal rider. The SLP panels are on WxBell already and it forms near OBX then heads NE about 100 miles off ORF then heads NW from there and makes “landfall” at ACY. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 ICON is trending better and getting a clue finally. Better cad and waa stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: It’s not a coastal rider. The SLP panels are on WxBell already and it forms near OBX then heads NE about 100 miles off ORF then heads NW from there and makes “landfall” at ACY. Thats what I figured. You can see it trying to start jumping to OBX at 93. Now I just want to see the CCB. It does have a pretty nasty dryslot out this way during the jump though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I'm all for the tuck when it works and if it takes some tucking... I am all in. But if this tucking doesn't work out I will not be tucking happy. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: Thats what I figured. You can see it trying to start jumping to OBX at 93. Now I just want to see the CCB. It does have a pretty nasty dryslot out this way during the jump though. So little data available with this model but it looks like 0.5”+ snow for DC from the WAA. Similar for Winchester. Seems like places south of Baltimore miss out on the coastal action just by looking at the total precip maps. It’s such a wonky evolution. I like the WAA a lot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The primary on the icon definitely holds on too long and development is late but we saw nice trends with the WAA precip and cold air damming. Still time for us to work on the coastal stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, frd said: Excellent post and visuals ! And here in my area both of those were the biggest snows in the last 20 years. Dec 2009 measured 26 inches, and Feb 2003 at 22 inches. In Feb 03 , if not for the sleet would have easily been 30 inches here. Seems what works for your area and for areas near the coastal plain are uniquely different, but makes sense based on your location. Not just me specifically those are the biggest storms to affect our region as a whole the last 30 years. However...the Delmarva and southeast VA are a different climo zone when it comes to snow. They can do “ok” when DC and Balt and places west get a HECS but honestly for you to “Jack” required a different type of storm usually. For Baltimore and IAD and me to be getting 20”+ usually means your mixed or dry slotting because to get that kind of moisture feed here the low is too close for you. There are some rare exceptions like (ironically) PD1 and PD2 (for different reasons) but those are rare exceptions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 We need to gain a model tonight Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: So little data available with this model but it looks like 0.5”+ snow for DC from the WAA. Similar for Winchester. Seems like places south of Baltimore miss out on the coastal action just by looking at the total precip maps. It’s such a wonky evolution. I like the WAA a lot. A couple of the EPS members had that jump east on them. Anything is still possible at this point. Which is why I want as a big of a WAA thump as we can get. Give me the easy snow. I will worry about the rest later. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ji said: We need to gain a model tonight Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk I agree, would be nice to get cmc or Ukie. Gfs just a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Where are you getting it past 93? weathermodels.com 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I agree, would be nice to get cmc or Ukie. Gfs just a bonus Yep. We are 0-1Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 20 minutes ago, nj2va said: It’s not a coastal rider. The SLP panels are on WxBell already and it forms near OBX then heads NE about 100 miles off ORF then heads NW from there and makes “landfall” at ACY. Secondary track is perfect. The reason it’s not the euro is the primary gains too much latitude before the transfer and the h5 instead of digging and amplifying in phase with the secondary opens up as it approaches. In other words it’s a messy transfer. Fix that and it’s a euro like solution. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Ok folks, tighten it up in here. 0z suite on deck. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS seems a little slower thru 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Yep. We are 0-1 Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Look, you do you, but that was a marked improvement from its run at 0Z. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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