Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 wrt PSU's suppression concerns. I've put the 18z EPS low clusters over where the 12z op's low pressure tracked (you can tell where the op's low is since it's L is slightly bigger), and it's certainly in the west (maybe not NW) camp compared to the mean. Still looks really really good, with room to adjust. Sorry if the image looking super blurry is a bad thing but that's the best I could do to display the two runs on top of each other. Google slides ftw in that department. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Man I’m an idiot. My cache was loading yesterday’s eps. 18z looked amazing. Sorry. Still think suppression is more a risk but it’s becoming less of one. Frankly it’s hard to see how we don’t get at least a decent snow from this. Carry on. After further review the call on the ice has been overturned. We have a good goal. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Man I’m an idiot. My cache was loading yesterday’s eps. 18z looked amazing. Sorry. Still think suppression is more a risk but it’s becoming less of one. Frankly it’s hard to see how we don’t get at least a decent snow from this. Carry on. That's hilarious. I thought you had snapped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That storm started showing bug totals about 3 days out I don't recall that, but perhaps no one seriously believed it, because it was still mid-December (and was hesitant to believe we could get a record December snowfall). Also by that point it had been 6 years since we had a big storm DC, so people may have just been extremely skeptical it was possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Never got above 11 degrees I don't think here . Wicked cold storm Yep coldest of the big snows I recall. Low to mid teens out towards Winchester too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 One thing that has also changed, due to Internet access and better modeling, etc, is forecasters in DC region used to be extremely skeptical of ever saying more than a foot of snow was possible, until literally a day before hand. Even PD11, I think it was well into Friday (before a storm that hit Saturday night), that most common folks even had any idea that a major storm of more than 6 to 8 inches was coming. The legacy and trauma of being burnt bad on the big 2000 East Coast bust was real and long-lasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, notvirga! said: Yep coldest of the big snows I recall. Low to mid teens out towards Winchester too. We were single digits during the bulk of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Much smaller storm but I remember temps in the teens with single digits after that snow w/full sun in Feb 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 96 also cold but not as ...I remember 13-19 F range . PDII may have dropped as low as 9 during storm before settling between 11 and 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Very clear that the 00z NAM has a much stronger wave moving across the midwest than the 12/18z GFS did - looks much closer to the 12z Euro. It's also not as progressive as the GFS, but it's a little faster than the 12z Euro/Canadian. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 NAM looks south of the 18Z GFS at the end of this run. Better HP. And a little bit slower with onset. Ninja'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 PDII may have dropped as low as 9 during storm before settling between 11 and 13During PD2, I was away in New Hampshire for the weekend. On the way home, we stopped in Massachusetts overnight and then headed back to Owings Mills. I was driving in the right lane of the beltway and realized the lane was about to end because it has not been plowed! Crazy to think how ill equipped they were for that storm. When we got home to our apartment complex it was like a bomb had gone off. Total chaos. What a storm that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_K76 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 It's almost tortuous being a snow lover in RVA lol. I fully expect Richmond to get shafted( as far as it remaining snow for the entire duration of the storm) as we draw closer to the event. This a speculation based upon a multitude of previous experiences lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 0Z NAM at 84 hours compared to 18Z EURO at same time. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 That low position on the NAM vs the Euro is strikingly close. EE rule coming back into form? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: 0Z NAM at 84 hours compared to 18Z EURO at same time. Damn. That’s uncanny 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: That low position on the NAM vs the Euro is strikingly close. EE rule coming back into form? And weekend rule 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian_K76 said: It's almost tortuous being a snow lover in RVA lol. I fully expect Richmond to get shafted( as far as it remaining snow for the entire duration of the storm) as we draw closer to the event. This a speculation based upon a multitude of previous experiences lol DT doesnt call Richmond "Gods snow anus" for nothing brother. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: That low position on the NAM vs the Euro is strikingly close. EE rule coming back into form? What's EE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Look at how they handle the cold air damming over the Mid-Atlantic. The NAM consistently resolves this low-level cold air so much better than the GFS. 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: During PD2, I was away in New Hampshire for the weekend. On the way home, we stopped in Massachusetts overnight and then headed back to Owings Mills. I was driving in the right lane of the beltway and realized the lane was about to end because it has not been plowed! Crazy to think how ill equipped they were for that storm. When we got home to our apartment complex it was like a bomb had gone off. Total chaos. What a storm that was. It must have been freezing as heck up there before the storm with that 1040 high. If I remember correctly parts of New England were well below zero that weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: What's EE? The precursor to the NAM models was the ETA. Euro/ETA I believe 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Chicago gets crushed again on the NAM. Hell of a winter up there this year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, high risk said: Look at how they handle the cold air damming over the Mid-Atlantic. The NAM consistently resolves this low-level cold air so much better than the GFS. Does the NAM usually trend colder as it gets closer? Since we have an ideal block and 50/50 it would seem so, and given the lower resolution of at-range NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: Does the NAM usually trend colder as it gets closer? Since we have an ideal block and 50/50 it would seem so, and given the lower resolution of at-range NAM. Perhaps slightly, but bigger changes in the low-level temperatures are more likely if the background synoptic solution changes. Of course, you're right that as we get closer to the valid time, it's even better to use the 3 km NAM nest. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 NAM with the stronger CAD signal makes sense... sort of helps with the warm advection thump potential, if that scenario comes to fruition. Unfortunately I am sure the NAM will be the first model to show an aggressive warm nose coming in aloft too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 In addition to the surface....looking at 500, NAM at 84 looks very close to the Euro at 90. It’s definitely not anything like the GFS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 47 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: PD2 mixed far inland. I sleeted for hours. Would have been half a foot more Wow...so the 2 feet would've been even more? Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 31 minutes ago, KAOS said: That tucked in look is what concerns me 1996 tucked 1/25/2000 tucked 2/12/2006 tucked Feb 6 2010 Tucked Feb 11 2010 tucked Feb 13 2014 Tucked 2016 Tucked Almost every one of our best snowstorms of the last 30 years was tucked in right against the Delmarva coast. The only exceptions were Dec 2009 and Feb 2003. 2009 managed that because it was a very amplified stj wave out of the gulf with an amazing moisture fetch that was 985mb over eastern NC It also had an inverted trough into WV so that combo meant an incredibly expansive heavy precip shield to the northwest of the track. It tracked NE from the outer banks. Frankly a less intense and less juiced up STJ system with that track likely doesn’t provide big totals in the NW 1/3 of our region normally. That track would usually fringe places like Winchester or Hagerstown or Frederick. PD2 was a west to east STJ wave overrunning an Arctic high. The coastal was weak sauce here and had very little contribution to that event. But the rule on an HECS here is we want the low tucked into the Delmarva coast. 14 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Exactly. Tucked IS the big ones. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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