Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm

[HighStakes]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

96 also cold but not as ...I remember 13-19 F range .

PDII may have dropped as low as 9 during storm before settling  between 11 and 13

[high risk]

Very clear that the 00z NAM has a much stronger wave moving across the midwest than the 12/18z GFS did - looks much closer to the 12z Euro.    It's also not as progressive as the GFS, but it's a little faster than the 12z Euro/Canadian.

[clskinsfan]

NAM looks south of the 18Z GFS at the end of this run. Better HP. And a little bit slower with onset. 

Ninja'd

[anotherman]

PDII may have dropped as low as 9 during storm before settling  between 11 and 13

During PD2, I was away in New Hampshire for the weekend. On the way home, we stopped in Massachusetts overnight and then headed back to Owings Mills. I was driving in the right lane of the beltway and realized the lane was about to end because it has not been plowed! Crazy to think how ill equipped they were for that storm. When we got home to our apartment complex it was like a bomb had gone off. Total chaos. What a storm that was.

[Brian_K76]

It's almost tortuous being a snow lover in RVA lol. I fully expect Richmond to get shafted( as far as it remaining snow for the entire duration of the storm) as we draw closer to the event. This a speculation based upon a multitude of previous experiences lol

[Weather Will]

0Z NAM at 84 hours compared to 18Z EURO at same time.

[Kmlwx]

That low position on the NAM vs the Euro is strikingly close. EE rule coming back into form? 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

0Z NAM at 84 hours compared to 18Z EURO at same time.

Damn. That’s uncanny 

[yoda]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

That low position on the NAM vs the Euro is strikingly close. EE rule coming back into form? 

And weekend rule

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Brian_K76 said:

It's almost tortuous being a snow lover in RVA lol. I fully expect Richmond to get shafted( as far as it remaining snow for the entire duration of the storm) as we draw closer to the event. This a speculation based upon a multitude of previous experiences lol

DT doesnt call Richmond "Gods snow anus" for nothing brother. 

[JakkelWx]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

That low position on the NAM vs the Euro is strikingly close. EE rule coming back into form? 

What's EE?

[high risk]

Look at how they handle the cold air damming over the Mid-Atlantic.     The NAM consistently resolves this low-level cold air so much better than the GFS.

[HighStakes]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

During PD2, I was away in New Hampshire for the weekend. On the way home, we stopped in Massachusetts overnight and then headed back to Owings Mills. I was driving in the right lane of the beltway and realized the lane was about to end because it has not been plowed! Crazy to think how ill equipped they were for that storm. When we got home to our apartment complex it was like a bomb had gone off. Total chaos. What a storm that was.

It must have been freezing as heck up there before the storm with that 1040 high. If I remember correctly parts of New England were well below zero that weekend.

[Kmlwx]

Just now, JakkelWx said:

What's EE?

The precursor to the NAM models was the ETA. Euro/ETA I believe

[clskinsfan]

Chicago gets crushed again on the NAM. Hell of a winter up there this year so far. 

[JakkelWx]

6 minutes ago, high risk said:

Look at how they handle the cold air damming over the Mid-Atlantic.     The NAM consistently resolves this low-level cold air so much better than the GFS.

 

 

Does the NAM usually trend colder as it gets closer? Since we have an ideal block and 50/50 it would seem so, and given the lower resolution of at-range NAM.

[high risk]

Just now, JakkelWx said:

Does the NAM usually trend colder as it gets closer? Since we have an ideal block and 50/50 it would seem so, and given the lower resolution of at-range NAM.

     Perhaps slightly, but bigger changes in the low-level temperatures are more likely if the background synoptic solution changes.     Of course, you're right that as we get closer to the valid time, it's even better to use the 3 km NAM nest.

[Hypothetical 240 hour snow]

NAM with the stronger CAD signal makes sense... sort of helps with the warm advection thump potential, if that scenario comes to fruition. Unfortunately I am sure the NAM will be the first model to show an aggressive warm nose coming in aloft too.

 

[nj2va]

In addition to the surface....looking at 500, NAM at 84 looks very close to the Euro at 90.  It’s definitely not anything like the GFS.

[Maestrobjwa]

47 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

PD2 mixed far inland.  I sleeted for hours.  Would have been half a foot more 

Wow...so the 2 feet would've been even more? Awesome

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, KAOS said:

That tucked in look is what concerns me

1996 tucked

1/25/2000 tucked

2/12/2006  tucked

Feb 6 2010 Tucked

Feb 11 2010 tucked

Feb 13 2014 Tucked

2016 Tucked

Almost every one of our best snowstorms of the last 30 years was tucked in right against the Delmarva coast.  The only exceptions were Dec 2009 and Feb 2003.  2009 managed that because it was a very amplified stj wave out of the gulf with an amazing moisture fetch that was 985mb over eastern NC  It also had an inverted trough into WV so that combo meant an incredibly expansive heavy precip shield to the northwest of the track. It tracked NE from the outer banks. Frankly a less intense and less juiced up STJ system with that track likely doesn’t provide big totals in the NW 1/3 of our region normally. That track would usually fringe places like Winchester or Hagerstown or Frederick.  PD2 was a west to east STJ wave overrunning an Arctic high.  The coastal was weak sauce here and had very little contribution to that event.   But the rule on an HECS here is we want the low tucked into the Delmarva coast. 

 

 

[clskinsfan]

Exactly. Tucked IS the big ones. 

[osfan24]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

1996 tucked

1/25/2000 tucked

2/12/2006  tucked

Feb 6 2010 Tucked

Feb 11 2010 tucked

Feb 13 2014 Tucked

2016 Tucked

Almost every one of our best snowstorms of the last 30 years was tucked in right against the Delmarva coast.  The only exceptions were Dec 2009 and Feb 2003.  2009 managed that because it was a very amplified stj wave out of the gulf with an amazing moisture fetch that was 985mb over eastern NC  It also had an inverted trough into WV so that combo meant an incredibly expansive heavy precip shield to the northwest of the track. It tracked NE from the outer banks. Frankly a less intense and less juiced up STJ system with that track likely doesn’t provide big totals in the NW 1/3 of our region normally. That track would usually fringe places like Winchester or Hagerstown or Frederick.  PD2 was a west to east STJ wave overrunning an Arctic high.  The coastal was weak sauce here and had very little contribution to that event.   But the rule on an HECS here is we want the low tucked into the Delmarva coast. 

 

 

Yep. We want it just a little off OCMD. That's out sweet spot. It gets too far east and we end up with Boxing Day 2010 when it all slides east of us and Philly gets clipped and NYC, NJ and NE get buried.

[jayyy]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

1996 tucked

1/25/2000 tucked

2/12/2006  tucked

Feb 6 2010 Tucked

Feb 11 2010 tucked

Feb 13 2014 Tucked

2016 Tucked

Almost every one of our best snowstorms of the last 30 years was tucked in right against the Delmarva coast.  The only exceptions were Dec 2009 and Feb 2003.  2009 managed that because it was a very amplified stj wave out of the gulf with an amazing moisture fetch that was 985mb over eastern NC  It also had an inverted trough into WV so that combo meant an incredibly expansive heavy precip shield to the northwest of the track. It tracked NE from the outer banks. Frankly a less intense and less juiced up STJ system with that track likely doesn’t provide big totals in the NW 1/3 of our region normally. That track would usually fringe places like Winchester or Hagerstown or Frederick.  PD2 was a west to east STJ wave overrunning an Arctic high.  The coastal was weak sauce here and had very little contribution to that event.   But the rule on an HECS here is we want the low tucked into the Delmarva coast. 

 

 

You’re a goddamn weather encyclopedia. Love it man. 

[JakkelWx]

Please take the images out when quoting long posts. Thank you

[real]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow...so the 2 feet would've been even more? Awesome

Yes. Baltimore City flipped to sleet like 8 p.m. that night during PDII, and it sleeted till dawn, when it briefly flipped back to heavy snow.  Had it stayed all snow, which I think it did as close as Reistertown area, Baltimore City would have easily eclipsed 3 feet from that storm. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

Please take the images out when quoting long posts. Thank you

Good post @psuhoffman and I agree with the above 

[psuhoffman]

47 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Lol. I didn't see your prior post but I thought 18z was an improvement.  

 

BTW...can I pick up my lawn chair I left there 4 years ago before the blizzard hits . @nw baltimore wxwas a witness 

Anytime just drop of the check to cover the very reasonable 50 cent daily storage fee.  That comes to $730.  

[Thanatos_I_Am]

At 72, 0z ICON is slower and a little deeper than the GFS. FWIW. 

[frd]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

he only exceptions were Dec 2009 and Feb 2003.  2009 managed that because it was a very amplified stj wave out of the gulf with an amazing moisture fetch that was 985mb over eastern NC  It also had an inverted trough into WV so that combo meant an incredibly expansive heavy precip shield to the northwest of the track. It tracked NE from the outer banks. Frankly a less intense and less juiced up STJ system with that track likely doesn’t provide big totals in the NW 1/3 of our region normally. That track would usually fringe places like Winchester or Hagerstown or Frederick.  PD2 was a west to east STJ wave overrunning an Arctic high.

Excellent post and visuals ! 

And here in my area both of those were the biggest snows in the last 20 years. Dec 2009  measured 26 inches,  and Feb 2003 at 22 inches.

In Feb 03 , if not for the sleet would have easily been 30 inches here. Seems what works for your area and for areas near the coastal plain are uniquely different,  but makes sense based on your location.