jaydreb Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Maybe it's just been so long since we tracked a potential MECS/HECS, but I just remember 2016 seeming so locked in from basically a week out and just insane snowfall totals and qpf amounts really far out. You would just think such a long duration coastal, as this is depicted, would be showing at least equally obscene totals, if not more. This is not going to be 2016 imo. This could be a big storm but that was historic. If you are expecting 2016 then you are setting yourself up for disappointment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Before I get flooded with “don’t worry” I don’t think this misses. We’re now inside the range the euro went way south with previous storms. And even if it adjusts south some it might come back north a little at the very end. It’s doing that now with tonight’s snow down in NC and south VA. I think we’re pretty close to the final solution on the euro. It’s pretty locked in with only some wobbles on the EPS the last 36 hours. But the bigger threat to a total fail is still suppressed imo if your north of DC. Doesn’t mean I expect that fail. Suppression has been the worry with every storm since December. I don’t think this is that same animal. I think this is do we get the transfer soon/fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: I think 2016 was perhaps more anomalous in its modeling consensus than even its snowfall. It was unusual to say the least. I don't think we get that often, even in MECS/HECS I thought the 2010 twin storms were pretty well modeled 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, H2O said: This simply isn’t true. 96 and 2016 had zero change over. It is possible to have a wrapped storm and still be cold smoke. Yesterday’s euro was almost ideal for 80% of the area. That would be how both things can be true. Mountains get a lot and the coastal plain as well. What we saw today generally only favored the usual areas. And that was over the mini melt about it being too suppressed. Now it’s a serious risk for primary too far NW into Ohio which crushes thermals. We don’t need more tucked. Then too much of the area floods. It’s a bit much to imply the ONLY way to get the best snow is to say every storm HAS to sit on top of VA Beach when that is fraught with issues elsewhere. 1996 is the first storm I remember and we definitely had a period of sleet and I was just west of 95 in the Baltimore area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: I thought the 2010 twin storms were pretty well modeled 2010 was a sick el nino with crazy blocking. Much different pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: I thought the 2010 twin storms were pretty well modeled For the most part all of the mid Atlantic HECS have been well modeled inside 5-7 days since the early 90s. (I’m including March 93). Jan 00 was MECS and a colossal failure in modeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, jaydreb said: This is not going to be 2016 imo. This could be a big storm but that was historic. If you are expecting 2016 then you are setting yourself up for disappointment. Was just throwing out the most recent of our big storms. Could throw out 2009, 2010, 2003, 2000, etc. I just remember big qpf totals really far out for 2016, and that storm was only 24 hours. This could be 1.5 to almost 2 times that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The second 2010 storm wasn’t even on the radar 5 days prior 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, H2O said: This simply isn’t true. 96 and 2016 had zero change over. It is possible to have a wrapped storm and still be cold smoke. Yesterday’s euro was almost ideal for 80% of the area. That would be how both things can be true. Mountains get a lot and the coastal plain as well. What we saw today generally only favored the usual areas. And that was over the mini melt about it being too suppressed. Now it’s a serious risk for primary too far NW into Ohio which crushes thermals. We don’t need more tucked. Then too much of the area floods. It’s a bit much to imply the ONLY way to get the best snow is to say every storm HAS to sit on top of VA Beach when that is fraught with issues elsewhere. 96 I changed to sleet all the way in Herndon. Wasn’t a big deal mostly light in the dry slot. 2016 the extreme dry slot prevented mixing since there was no precip during the mid level warm intrusion but the effect was the same, places southeast of 95 didn’t get the 30”+ totals NW did. I think your misunderstanding me. I’m not saying places like DC and Annapolis and EZF can’t get a lot of snow from a HECS where Winchester and I do. They can. But if the western end northern parts are getting big hits they are probably flirting with a dry slot and some sleet. For the deform to set up along the coastal plain (where there is no oragraphic aid also) it likely means a rapid drop off in totals NW of 95. Those are very rare but happen. The knickerbocker storm is an example. That gave DC 28” of pure snow but it wasn’t that big up here or in Winchester. Totals dropped off rapidly NW of 95. If we want a true forum wide 1 foot plus places southeast of 95 probably can’t Jack and will flirt with dry slot or mix. Otherwise the NW 1/2 of the forum will get left out. That’s simply climo on these type storms. Of course everyone should root for the most snow in their yard. If you Jack and I get 3” so be it. I won’t hate on ya. I’m just pointing out what the typical outcome is. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: 1996 is the first storm I remember and we definitely had a period of sleet and I was just west of 95 in the Baltimore area. Lived just inside the beltway here in Va and it was powder here. Where I live now has mixed for PD 2 and 2010. But a couple others during prime climo managed to stay powder and still be warning + events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: 96 I changed to sleet all the way in Herndon. Wasn’t a big deal mostly light in the dry slot. 2016 the extreme dry slot prevented mixing since there was no precip during the mid level warm intrusion but the effect was the same, places southeast of 95 didn’t get the 30”+ totals NW did. I think your misunderstanding me. I’m not saying places like DC and Annapolis and EZF can’t get a lot of snow from a HECS where Winchester and I do. They can. But if the western end northern parts are getting big hits they are probably flirting with a dry slot and some sleet. For the deform to set up along the coastal plain (where there is no oragraphic aid also) it likely means a rapid drop off in totals NE of 95. Those are very rare but happen. The knickerbocker storm is an example. That gave DC 28” of pure snow but it wasn’t that big up here or in Winchester. Totals dropped off rapidly NW of 95. If we want a true forum wide 1 foot plus places southeast of 95 probably can’t Jack and will flirt with dry slot or mix. Otherwise the NW 1/2 of the forum will get left out. That’s simply climo on these type storms. Of course everyone should root for the most snow in their yard. If you Jack and I get 3” so be it. I won’t hate on ya. I’m just pointing out what the typical outcome is. Don’t want to contribute to banter but I’m in Annapolis and the afternoon for the storm in 2016 was brutal as we dry slotted and the sun came out while it bombed to the north. Tough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 We have the potential for a foot or more of snow in a La Niña winter, reflect on that until the next EURO run...we are in rare air.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: True Best Miller b of all time here More like 3 storms in 2010. A surprise one at the end of January (8~9”) followed by the ridiculous bomb at the beginning of February, than that sick Miller B a week later. Crazy times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, H2O said: Lived just inside the beltway here in Va and it was powder here. Where I live now has mixed for PD 2 and 2010. But a couple others during prime climo managed to stay powder and still be warning + events It’s possible you dry slotted before the mid level warm intrusion in 96. But sleet did make it as far NW as IAD. The dryslot is caused by the same function as the mixing. The mid level warm intrusion also often times up with the dry slot because it signals the rapid WAA has ended (the cold has been displaced) and so you get light or no precip. Whether it’s sleet or just dry doesn’t make a difference to snow totals lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 That tucked in look is what concerns me as it relate to places east of 95 and including the metros. Just my common sense "analysis" based on decades of living in the region and from being on this board. I have seen this movie before to some extent. Of course I am hoping for the "best" outcome for everyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Anyone want to extrapolate the 0Z NAM tonight? That would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 PD2 mixed far inland. I sleeted for hours. Would have been half a foot more It was a hell of a lot colder leading up to it, too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Man I’m an idiot. My cache was loading yesterday’s eps. 18z looked amazing. Sorry. Still think suppression is more a risk but it’s becoming less of one. Frankly it’s hard to see how we don’t get at least a decent snow from this. Carry on. 6 1 24 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s possible you dry slotted before the mid level warm intrusion in 96. But sleet did make it as far NW as IAD. The dryslot is caused by the same function as the mixing. The mid level warm intrusion also often times up with the dry slot because it signals the rapid WAA has ended (the cold has been displaced) and so you get light or no precip. Whether it’s sleet or just dry doesn’t make a difference to snow totals lol. Had a brief period where sleet mixed in mostly during dry slot in Reisterstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 19 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: I thought the 2010 twin storms were pretty well modeled The only major DC snowstorm of past 15 years or so that I recall being not well-modeled ahead of time and kind of sneaking up on us, was the December 2009 storm. I recall even on the Thursday on the day before the storm, the morning forecasts were still for maybe 4 to 8 inches. And by afternoon, it was looking like 8 to 12 inches. And then that the evening, less than 24 hours before the snow started, forecasts started hinting at a foot plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: PD2 mixed far inland. I sleeted for hours. Would have been half a foot more Agreed. I sleeted for hours as well. It was almost painful to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, real said: The only major DC snowstorm of past 15 years or so that I recall being not well-modeled ahead of time and kind of sneaking up on us, was the December 2009 storm. I recall even on the Thursday on the day before the storm, the morning forecasts were still for maybe 4 to 8 inches. And by afternoon, it was looking like 8 to 12 inches. And then that the evening, less than 24 hours before the snow started, forecasts started hinting at a foot plus That storm started showing bug totals about 3 days out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 wrt PSU's suppression concerns. I've put the 18z EPS low clusters over where the 12z op's low pressure tracked (you can tell where the op's low is since it's L is slightly bigger), and it's certainly in the west (maybe not NW) camp compared to the mean. Still looks really really good, with room to adjust. Sorry if the image looking super blurry is a bad thing but that's the best I could do to display the two runs on top of each other. Google slides ftw in that department. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Man I’m an idiot. My cache was loading yesterday’s eps. 18z looked amazing. Sorry. Still think suppression is more a risk but it’s becoming less of one. Frankly it’s hard to see how we don’t get at least a decent snow from this. Carry on. After further review the call on the ice has been overturned. We have a good goal. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Man I’m an idiot. My cache was loading yesterday’s eps. 18z looked amazing. Sorry. Still think suppression is more a risk but it’s becoming less of one. Frankly it’s hard to see how we don’t get at least a decent snow from this. Carry on. That's hilarious. I thought you had snapped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That storm started showing bug totals about 3 days out I don't recall that, but perhaps no one seriously believed it, because it was still mid-December (and was hesitant to believe we could get a record December snowfall). Also by that point it had been 6 years since we had a big storm DC, so people may have just been extremely skeptical it was possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Never got above 11 degrees I don't think here . Wicked cold storm Yep coldest of the big snows I recall. Low to mid teens out towards Winchester too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 One thing that has also changed, due to Internet access and better modeling, etc, is forecasters in DC region used to be extremely skeptical of ever saying more than a foot of snow was possible, until literally a day before hand. Even PD11, I think it was well into Friday (before a storm that hit Saturday night), that most common folks even had any idea that a major storm of more than 6 to 8 inches was coming. The legacy and trauma of being burnt bad on the big 2000 East Coast bust was real and long-lasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, notvirga! said: Yep coldest of the big snows I recall. Low to mid teens out towards Winchester too. We were single digits during the bulk of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Much smaller storm but I remember temps in the teens with single digits after that snow w/full sun in Feb 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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