MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM 12km is just fine on the front side. No p-type concerns in DC until 00z. At that point, ~0.6" precip has fallen. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Northern friends will like the tick north on the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Compared to the previous NAM run, the Low is in a better spot for the coastal handoff (it would seem) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not really relevant to totals, but the NAM and especially the NAM nest like the idea of a lead band around sunrise Sunday followed by a break before the primary swath of warm advection snow arrives. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Freezing line stays just east of 95 before crashing once the coastal takes over at 12z Monday. 850s are still issue however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This is the first time that the NAM nest has run through the WAA period, and it is certainly drier than the 12km NAM. Still ~0.4" around DC, but that is actually somewhat of a jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Another model run with a positively-tilted trough. Looks like the CCB is up in Long Island and NJ. We get snow showers on the backside from the 500 low passage, but it is not really the the beatdown that we are looking for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM looks great if you live in NYC or NE. Model mayhem with 72 hours to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The 7H low really doesn't get going until its to the southeast of the area. It's fairly mature into the OH Valley, but then becomes discombobulated as it tries to pivot under the area. It doesn't get its act together until late, so the area just gets some passing snow showers. It's a much better run for NYC/LI as the low CCB gets cranking around CNJ and then moves north. It was close, but no cigar for the area. Still has a solid front end piece that will whiten the area and it's still colder than any GFS run in terms of thermals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I realize that this is a bit of a complicated situation, but it's truly amazing that model consensus has actually been harder to come by as we've gotten closer! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM is cool for WAA, but I hope it’s not starting a trend of missing the backside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, mattie g said: I realize that this is a bit of a complicated situation, but it's truly amazing that model consensus has actually been harder to come by as we've gotten closer! They always are with Miller B events. You essentially hand off the surface, mid and upper levels from one storm to another. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM through 60 has a pretty good thump. Not going to worry about what it does after that since it’s way out of its range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Wouldn’t worry about what NAM shows after 60. It’s not in range. NAM is in range to analyze the WAA however, which looks pretty solid. ninja’d by Jaydreb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The concerns we had all along are rearing their ugly heads. Now that the pieces of energy are coming onshore, models are clueing in on them. Biggest change from yesterday is the 500 pattern. Trough tilt has gone more positive and that will push the best forcing out of our area. Transfer delayed, not much phasing. Precip in two phases and no CCB. That will not get it done in a Miller B. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 For those asking about snow climo for 1/31 and 2/1: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Most of the meaningful snow will happen on the front end thump if these trends continue. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just some food for thought, the forming of the coastal is still outside of the NAM's wheelhouse. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM is out of range AND still shows 6-10" for basically the whole region even without a crazy amount of backside precip and everyone on here is still freaking out... Baltimore City hasn't seen 5"+ in a really long time. I would personally be thrilled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: This is the first time that the NAM nest has run through the WAA period, and it is certainly drier than the 12km NAM. Still ~0.4" around DC, but that is actually somewhat of a jackpot zone. Yeah, don't overlook this. NAM nest was notably drier than the parent. PWs seemed quite a bit lower over the source region for the moisture - not sure if it's correct, but I don't recommend completely dismissing it either. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, umdterps29 said: NAM is out of range AND still shows 6-10" for basically the whole region even without a crazy amount of backside precip and everyone on here is still freaking out... Baltimore City hasn't seen 5"+ in a really long time. I would personally be thrilled. You’re talking too much sense for this board my friend. 6+ area wide is a really solid storm in a Nina. But hey, unless we get 1-2 feet, it’s a dud apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 There's no mystery here on where we are headed. Rewinding back to one of our great runs from earlier this week. You've got a neutral trough right at our longitude and you've got a backside vort that is going to help dig and stall even more. This is a great look for a big storm. Then you have the NAM this morning. Positively-tilted trough, not much help on the backside. This is just a run-of-the-mill storm look around here. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, high risk said: Yeah, don't overlook this. NAM nest was notably drier than the parent. PWs seemed quite a bit lower over the source region for the moisture - not sure if it's correct, but I don't recommend completely dismissing it either. Let's not overlook that the NAM nest is still not in it's wheelhouse range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Trends are the key here. It's clear where we're going with the coastal. Be overjoyed at the WAA thump and enjoy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Curious to see how the trough looks on the next euro run. If its even more positively tilted, we are definitely heading in the wrong direction for a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: There's no mystery here on where we are headed. Rewinding back to one of our great runs from earlier this week. You've got a neutral trough right at our longitude and you've got a backside vort that is going to help dig and stall even more. This is a great look for a big storm. Then you have the NAM this morning. Positively-tilted trough, not much help on the backside. This is just a run-of-the-mill storm look around here. This was the biggest takeaway mulling over guidance this morning. This is shifting from any mega storm potential for around here. A solid WSW is still on table for sure, but 1'+ is looking less likely with the trough looking like that. 7H was meh until too late too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Woof. Those two pictures tell the whole story. She gone. Next. We are still looking at our first meaningful snowfall in two years in a La Niña. I’ll take it... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Woof. Those two pictures tell the whole story. She gone. Next. if you really believe "next" then see you for the next threat and dont post more about this. you guys gotta stop with this crap. 12 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: This was the biggest takeaway mulling over guidance this morning. This is shifting from any mega storm potential for around here. A solid WSW is still on table for sure, but 1'+ is looking less likely with the trough looking like that. 7H was meh until too late too If you forced me to make a forecast right now, I'd put 2-4" for Sunday and another 1-2" with the 500 passage on Monday. That's still a nice 3-6" storm with maybe a bit of upside given some of the other guidance. Its still going to snow 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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