Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 14 minutes ago, mappy said: reminds me of the Feb 2014 storm, there was a lull between the two areas of precip that places had sleet, myself included. Yup. Backside love was decent from I-70 north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Clueless said: Not sure I want to go back and read the Euro PBP. Bad? Hiccup? Ugh. 6z is running now. Let’s see what it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS Did the GFS take over for the Nam lmao!! 1.92” jackpot over this way. If anything GFS has been a juice bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I did notice for the GFS the in between WAA and coastal temps did level out a bit lower than previous runs now at JYO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah if the ens members don't agree with the op at this range then something is broken. It's GFS vs Euro. Which one will cave.. I think there's a case to be made that it's the NAM, RGEM, CMC, ICON, UKMET, GFS vs. EURO PSU set off a chain reaction last night. He had people who were bullsyed by the 0z euro talking about being fringed/ending up being a non event by today... I mean if other pieces of guidance were trending like the EURO i'd be concerned too but there's just not...so far... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 WB EURO Sun evening.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 17 minutes ago, nj2va said: I wish 6z RGEM went out past 84. It’s got a deepening low pressure meandering east of OC and the CCB is cranking for areas north of 70 (SURPRISE!) but the CCB is arcing south as the run ends and looks ready to crush CMD/NOVA. Same. Looked like it had really nice WAA snow and then a brief lull mix followed by the CCB crushing us. I just wish that was actually a good model. Euro last night was really concerning and PSU's concerns came to fruition. It does seem like a couple models are pushing the deform out much quicker and the long duration idea is losing some of its steam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 10 pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: 10 pm There's my sleet/freezing rain with a chance of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Mon 10 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 EURO is the weakest at 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It’s the 00z run but knocking off 2 inches of snow for everyone who got purpled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro didn't budge. Surface and 850 low maybe a tad further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: It’s the 00z run but knocking off 2 inches of snow for everyone who got purpled. The 850 mb low looks more diffuse on the 6z run. Same general idea though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 One thing I'd like to point out... The EURO is still not what it used to be. Sure it's schooled the GFS over the last week in the long range. But it's missed on it's share of storms/details, even in the short range, over the last couple of years. The GFS is terrible outside of 120 hrs but its scores increase as we get closer to game time. I'd be taking a blend of everything at this point. EURO is by far the furthest south solution. No other model is showing what the euro is showing. Also, even PSU has pointed out that even with a suppressed, more south solution, there is usually a bump north in the last 24-48hrs. hmm...if you are using that reasoning, even with a Euro solution, PSU would still get his deform.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: If this solution had more support I might be worried especially for people to the north of Baltimore. But to me, this EURO solution is just making pretty clear that this is looking more and morel like a mid-atlantic special. That's all I take from this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I am probably speaking from ignorance, but maybe if the Euro is going to make a more significant adjustment, it happens at 12z/0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 If you think the disagreement for our sub forum is bad, look at the Poconos area lol. 20-25” difference between the euro and other guidance like the para. RGEM looks lovely, I’m hugging. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I think any notions of a 1’+ snow are fantasy at this point. 3-6” would be my upper limit of hope right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Been my experience though that the euro doesn’t do well with WAA into cad. Just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Comparing the QPF map and the Kuchera snowfall map above, Euro has 15:1 ratios for HGR, MRB and OKV. (Didn't look at any other sites.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Been my experience though that the euro doesn’t do well with WAA into cad. Just my opinion I thought the Euro did fine with the WAA. It seems like it is juicing that part up. It is just losing the second part of the storm, which is the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I think @CAPE is correct. The next 12 hours of model runs is gonna pretty much nail this down, one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I know we're close enough that ensembles don't carry as much weight and tend to follow the op... I'd still like to see if there is any spread within the Euro ens or if they are all pretty much in agreement with the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 hours ago, psuhoffman said: It seems to me one of the best places to be for this one is out towards SW VA. All guidance seems to give that are a no nonsense thump of 7-12" followed by some light fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Mon 10 am Didn’t somebody bring up yesterday the idea of a dual low off the coast and the model tends to focus on the one closest to heavy convection? This picture shows just that I think. Maybe a blip? Or maybe a continuance of that model’s trend. To me it looks looks like the coastal gets going way way too late and it’s too far east to help us much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: It seems to me one of the best places to be for this one is out towards SW VA. All guidance seems to give that are a no nonsense thump of 7-12" followed by some light fluff No doubt. Looks like that area gets a really nice thump from WAA and doesn't really have to worry as much about getting any coastal action to easily hit warning level criteria and then some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The 6Z GFS seems to give widespread 9" to 14 inches just west of DC-BALTO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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