mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sounds like a GFS/CMC blend. I have freezing rain/sleet in mine too, Sunday night into Monday. Wonder if its because thats during the lull period between WAA and the coastal taking over. Its been mentioned several times that precip will be light, so maybe a sneaky warm layer gets in there before precip picks up in intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Weird to me because I don’t lose 850’s on any model. Must be warm above that. looking at soundings IMBY for the GFS in pivotal -- 03z Monday a little warm nose pops up around 900 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, mappy said: I have freezing rain/sleet in mine too, Sunday night into Monday. Wonder if its because thats during the lull period between WAA and the coastal taking over. Its been mentioned several times that precip will be light, so maybe a sneaky warm layer gets in there before precip picks up in intensity. Yes that is the period where it would be most likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Weird to me because I don’t lose 850’s on any model. Must be warm above that. Heres one for your backyard, yeah you got a sneaky layer above 850 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Interesting that my local forecast for Sunday is now freezing rain and sleet with a chance of snow. Very interesting. I'm thinking they are no longer tossing the GFS idea...I seriously think the Euro is too cold and is pushing too far South. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: I'm thinking they are no longer tossing the GFS idea...I seriously think the Euro is too cold and is pushing too far South. What happened to the Euro run last night?? Now in my dealings with the Euro doesn't it have a so called blind spot for storms in the far Southwest of the United States where the Euro either weakens the storm down too much or holds energy back in the southwest? Our storm basically is about to crash into Southern California as we speak just to the west of LA so I am wondering if the Euro run was just a blip and the Euro having one of its bias moments out there just west of California and diving SSE into Southern Cali before rounding the bottom of the trough out there and moving east. Thoughts?? https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/satellite-wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Yes that is the period where it would be most likely. reminds me of the Feb 2014 storm, there was a lull between the two areas of precip that places had sleet, myself included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm thinking they are no longer tossing the GFS idea...I seriously think the Euro is too cold and is pushing too far South. I agree. I wish it were the correct outcome, but I don't believe it will be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I wish 6z RGEM went out past 84. It’s got a deepening low pressure meandering east of OC and the CCB is cranking for areas north of 70 (SURPRISE!) but the CCB is arcing south as the run ends and looks ready to crush CMD/NOVA. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I also think that the time for us to be able to console ourselves with ensemble means has come and gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Pretty disturbing to have every model on track for a massive hit for the almost the entire forum...except the Euro now. That was a pretty big jump south at 0z for us NW folks. Hope it was just a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: I agree. I wish it were the correct outcome, but I don't believe it will be. A blend of the Euro/GFS would work pretty nicely though. 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: I wish 6z RGEM went out past 84. It’s got a deepening low pressure meandering east of OC and the CCB is cranking for areas north of 70 (SURPRISE!) but the CCB is arcing south as the run ends and looks ready to crush CMD/NOVA. Yeah that’s a big hit forum wide and still dumping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I also think that the time for us to be able to console ourselves with ensemble means has come and gone. Yeah if the ens members don't agree with the op at this range then something is broken. It's GFS vs Euro. Which one will cave.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Yeah if the ens members don't agree with the op at this range then something is broken. It's GFS vs Euro. Which one will cave.. Is there any other model showing the evolution that the Euro has? Looks more like Euro vs. Everyone Else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not sure I want to go back and read the Euro PBP. Bad? Hiccup? Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 14 minutes ago, mappy said: reminds me of the Feb 2014 storm, there was a lull between the two areas of precip that places had sleet, myself included. Yup. Backside love was decent from I-70 north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Clueless said: Not sure I want to go back and read the Euro PBP. Bad? Hiccup? Ugh. 6z is running now. Let’s see what it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS Did the GFS take over for the Nam lmao!! 1.92” jackpot over this way. If anything GFS has been a juice bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I did notice for the GFS the in between WAA and coastal temps did level out a bit lower than previous runs now at JYO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah if the ens members don't agree with the op at this range then something is broken. It's GFS vs Euro. Which one will cave.. I think there's a case to be made that it's the NAM, RGEM, CMC, ICON, UKMET, GFS vs. EURO PSU set off a chain reaction last night. He had people who were bullsyed by the 0z euro talking about being fringed/ending up being a non event by today... I mean if other pieces of guidance were trending like the EURO i'd be concerned too but there's just not...so far... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 WB EURO Sun evening.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 17 minutes ago, nj2va said: I wish 6z RGEM went out past 84. It’s got a deepening low pressure meandering east of OC and the CCB is cranking for areas north of 70 (SURPRISE!) but the CCB is arcing south as the run ends and looks ready to crush CMD/NOVA. Same. Looked like it had really nice WAA snow and then a brief lull mix followed by the CCB crushing us. I just wish that was actually a good model. Euro last night was really concerning and PSU's concerns came to fruition. It does seem like a couple models are pushing the deform out much quicker and the long duration idea is losing some of its steam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 10 pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: 10 pm There's my sleet/freezing rain with a chance of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Mon 10 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 EURO is the weakest at 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It’s the 00z run but knocking off 2 inches of snow for everyone who got purpled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro didn't budge. Surface and 850 low maybe a tad further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: It’s the 00z run but knocking off 2 inches of snow for everyone who got purpled. The 850 mb low looks more diffuse on the 6z run. Same general idea though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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