BristowWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It’s west of the 12z gefs. Slightly better ccb into N VA. Also...often with a capture the slp elongates with a double barrel or inverted trough type feature towards the coast. The lowest pressure might be to the east but the Max to the west is typically the one that matters. The mean can be misleading. Roger. Things are really tightening up as you said they would. Here we go. It’s time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s west of the 12z gefs. Slightly better ccb into N VA. Also...often with a capture the slp elongates with a double barrel or inverted trough type feature towards the coast. The lowest pressure might be to the east but the Max to the west is typically the one that matters. The mean can be misleading. That’s a very good point and why you get the L dancing around to the southwest after being offshore. Euro and GGEM did that today. Basic baroclinicity argues the low will be close to the coastline. Unlike December we have a respectable airmass ahead of this so the low shouldn’t ride up the Bay. Coastal front should be on the coast... P.S. you saw this window coming from 10+ days so big kudos on the pattern recognition 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I don’t know why Bel Air would be the jackpot for phase 1, but a general 3-6” seems like the right call to me. I think potential for more in north-central VA. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Icon is a juicy beast. 2.5 inch qpf More negativily tilted trough it appears to me Kudos to you as well as psu. I remember you posted 8 days ago when the Thursday deal failed. You saw what looked to me like a cutter into a block. Little blue WAA showing up but you saw the potential. Hats off to you sir. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 59 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: Check out that qpf in Central MD I may need to go down to my brothers in ellicott city for this one. Seems the western suburbs get both smoked with qpf and hold onto temps. Whoever is JUST west of the mix line and remains all snow will jack 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Surprised nobody posted the RGEM. Looks pretty good. I would tap that shit. 3 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Question for the seasoned folks from a total amateur. I’m trying to understand the warming depicted at “halftime.” I get (Or maybe I am totally off) that as the coastal gets going SE winds take over until it gets cranking and then shift more NE, but why would that warm the surface so far inland?I get maybe the mid levels but to warm all layers to get plain rain to 95 I am not understanding in a scenario like this with a L that far away. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 13 minutes ago, jayyy said: I may need to go down to my brothers in ellicott city for this one. Seems the western suburbs get both smoked with qpf and hold onto temps. Whoever is JUST west of the mix line and remains all snow will jack Come on down! Not sure I'll be far west and north enough to stay west of the mix line, but I sure hope I jackpot with the biggest qpf and get cold smoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: I would tap that shit. Yeah...the RGEM looks like a crushing. Really nice WAA snows, the primary croaks nice and early, and it appears the the surface may be starting to crash at 84 as the coastal starts to crank without melting all the WAA snow away. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: Yeah...the RGEM looks like a crushing. Really nice WAA snows, the primary croaks nice and early, and it appears the the surface may be starting to crash at 84 as the coastal starts to crank without melting all the WAA snow away. Yesss. But, we need the obligatory qualifier- well, it is the RGEM at range.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, ovechkin said: Question for the seasoned folks from a total amateur. I’m trying to understand the warming depicted at “halftime.” I get (Or maybe I am totally off) that as the coastal gets going SE winds take over until it gets cranking and then shift more NE, but why would that warm the surface so far inland?I get maybe the mid levels but to warm all layers to get plain rain to 95 I am not understanding in a scenario like this with a L that far away. Thanks. Not a seasoned folk but stumbled upon this earlier... https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2021-01-28-northeast-winter-storms-challenges-in-forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: Yeah...the RGEM looks like a crushing. Really nice WAA snows, the primary croaks nice and early, and it appears the the surface may be starting to crash at 84 as the coastal starts to crank without melting all the WAA snow away. Wow, the RGEM is something else. Low jumps to SC before starting its NE crawl. Primary dissolves over KY. Definitely far south of the GFS look and in line, at least with the primary, to the Euro. Not sure of the jump to SC is too far...TBD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 20 minutes ago, jayyy said: I may need to go down to my brothers in ellicott city for this one. Seems the western suburbs get both smoked with qpf and hold onto temps. Whoever is JUST west of the mix line and remains all snow will jack Northern VA fringed. Fortunately it's a trash model and will be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That’s a very good point and why you get the L dancing around to the southwest after being offshore. Euro and GGEM did that today. Basic baroclinicity argues the low will be close to the coastline. Unlike December we have a respectable airmass ahead of this so the low shouldn’t ride up the Bay. Coastal front should be on the coast... P.S. you saw this window coming from 10+ days so big kudos on the pattern recognition Thanks. Sometimes I get lucky and the weather cooperates with my cockamamie ideas. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 So, I know it's early and they will likely change this forecast, but what model is NWS PIT hugging in putting out this local forecast for Tucker County? Sure doesn't seem like any of them we've been discussing today -- unless there is a warm layer there that I'm missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, mattskiva said: So, I know it's early and they will likely change this forecast, but what model is NWS PIT hugging in putting out this local forecast for Tucker County? Sure doesn't seem like any of them we've been discussing today -- unless there is a warm layer there that I'm missing. Warm air aloft sucks for the highest elevations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: Warm air aloft sucks for the highest elevations. So they're just forecasting based on the WAA, and they think that will last until Monday afternoon there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 35 minutes ago, jayyy said: I may need to go down to my brothers in ellicott city for this one. Seems the western suburbs get both smoked with qpf and hold onto temps. Whoever is JUST west of the mix line and remains all snow will jack Columbia Death Band = alive 'n well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, mattskiva said: So they're just forecasting based on the WAA, and they think that will last until Monday afternoon there? Saturday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday Snow. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night Snow. Low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 50%. This is the PZF for my brother’s location in ellicott city, MD. All snow. Interesting.... to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, mattskiva said: So they're just forecasting based on the WAA, and they think that will last until Monday afternoon there? I'm not sure what they are thinking, and someone more knowledgeable than me, which is frankly, anyone, can chime in, but until the coastal gets going, the winds will generally be out of the south, and at those elevations, there is nothing to keep cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Saturday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday Snow. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night Snow. Low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 50%. This is the PZF for my brother’s location in ellicott city, MD. All snow. Interesting.... to say the least. Keeping it generic but I’m not sure why Monday doesn’t just say rain or snow. A high of 37 obv wouldn’t work for snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks. Sometimes I get lucky and the weather cooperates with my cockamamie ideas. hey i sent you a pm:) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: hey i sent you a pm:) Which is not so private anymore. Banter thread? over or under? 2 minutes before Mappy disappears this post. eta: Here at 1550’ in Augusta County nw of Staunton I am rooting for the models with a heavier waa front end thump. The coastal is sketchy for those of us south and west and counting on 6” over 30 hours doesn’t inspire much confidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 16 minutes ago, mattskiva said: So, I know it's early and they will likely change this forecast, but what model is NWS PIT hugging in putting out this local forecast for Tucker County? Sure doesn't seem like any of them we've been discussing today -- unless there is a warm layer there that I'm missing. I saw that too. Head scratcher because the LWX forecast for Grant Co just next door is for all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 When do we get the qpf from the gefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Keeping it generic but I’m not sure why Monday doesn’t just say rain or snow. A high of 37 obv wouldn’t work for snow lol Uncertainty. That area is very close to the primary and at elevation the warming aloft effs it up for snow initially. Beyond that, the coastal and the dynamics associated with that may be too far east, so any snow may be a function of NW flow and orographic lift on the backside, thus the forecast of snow showers. Ofc snow showers out there can lead to pretty significant accumulations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Can’t wait for 8:30! Should be getting the 18z EPS around then correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: When do we get the qpf from the gefs? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18z Euro has a 5a start time Sunday in DC. Earlier as you go SW from DC. Looking at the 500H through 72, slightly more confluence to my non-expert eye over NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Score. 1+ QPF all snow up this way. About 1.3” by my brothers in Ellicott city, but they could very well see 0.25” of QPF in the form of slop. Trying to decide where to be for this one. Climo says stay put. This setup, however, gives me the feeling the eastern half of the CWA west of the bay has the best chance to score from the coastal. Decisions, decisions! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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