psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 @Cashtown_Coop I am pretty sure State College will be well northwest of any bullseye. You are in the game...but I am even SLIGHTLY nervous about a suppressed outcome here. As usual, the GFS is adding more noise then it is helping. We would probably have a more accurate perception of what this storm is likely to do if the GFS simply didn't exist at all. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:05 PM, nj2va said: And take into account GFS’ whack thermals and its even better. Expand Yes all you gotta do is look at the 850 and 700 vorticyt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS insists on screwing the Shenandoah Valley. I get lucky I am JUST far enough north to get some love from the coastal. That model scares the crap out of me though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:05 PM, ErinInTheSky said: Looking more, I see that the GFS is not as good for the cities, but it's def better for MoCo and Frederick lol. Expand It's a foot plus on that run. We will manage. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 9:59 PM, MN Transplant said: GFS torches again overnight Sun into Monday. 38 at the surface at DCA. we are going to have some takers for the 93 hour panel, though. Expand Kinda similar to the Feb 2014 storm in that regard. There was a really awful lull waiting for the upper level energy to catch up and spark the deform banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:03 PM, ErinInTheSky said: GFS full cave <3 GFS now shows more snow than Euro, for me at least. Expand Yes but this is only with 10-1 snowfall or the Kuchera ratio without it the GFS givs 3 positive snow depth change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:07 PM, psuhoffman said: Kinda similar to the Feb 2014 storm in that regard. There was a really awful lull waiting for the upper level energy to catch up and spark the deform banding. Expand Yeah it's gonna be nails when the first wave moves through and the radar looks sparse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 @stormtracker I know we're not allowed to post porn on here, but I'm sure you can make one exception..... 8 6 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:03 PM, stormtracker said: Thankfully, we know the GFS thermals are some straight up shit. Expand I think it will warm some in the dryslot when the lower levels lose saturation...but not to that extent. And temps will crash when the ccb gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:02 PM, Deer Whisperer said: Check out that qpf in Central MD Expand Here comes the JUICE! Loving these juicy 18z runs so far. Starting to see HECS type potential. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:03 PM, SnowDreamer said: This is a little late, but I'm shocked nobody posted this. The GEPS totals at DCA are nutso. Strongest MECS support I've seen from any ensemble so far. I count 18/20 with 6"+ 9/20 with 10"+ by 12z Tues.... Expand Did the cmc ever update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:07 PM, clskinsfan said: GFS insists on screwing the Shenandoah Valley. I get lucky I am JUST far enough north to get some love from the coastal. That model scares the crap out of me though. Expand It also insists on being wrong a whole lot too so you have that going for you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Models really honing in on two maxes, there’s that heavy spot in the ccb and also the fronto magic you see towards C Nj, placement of those two will wobble around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:13 PM, Wentzadelphia said: Did the cmc ever update? Expand 12 hours or so to go at this point but this is the best map I've got... the next one brings it out to 240hrs so I don't think its worth sharing. Not super relevant to us but it nukes NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:05 PM, nj2va said: And take into account GFS’ whack thermals and its even better. Expand Verbatim that’s a lot of 33-34F rain for me with an isothermal profile from the surface to 800-850mb. If that’s a smidge colder with a euro or GGEM like temp profile... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:24 PM, JakkelWx said: Expand Seems fairly far off shore. Yes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:25 PM, BristowWx said: Seems fairly far off shore. Yes? Expand Seems to be heading towards a little less tucked in, kinda like the 12z EPS today. It's not really that far to the E, members jump around a lot from frame to frame. it's a smidge further west but more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 We need to Call Paul Kocin in to bring this one home and do some analysis 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:09 PM, MillvilleWx said: @stormtracker I know we're not allowed to post porn on here, but I'm sure you can make one exception..... Expand Permission granted, have at it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:27 PM, JakkelWx said: Seems to be heading towards a little less tucked in, kinda like the 12z EPS today. It's not really that far to the E, members jump around a lot from frame to frame. it's a smidge further west but more consolidated. Expand It will likely adjust to the euro more tucked solution thankfully 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:25 PM, BristowWx said: Seems fairly far off shore. Yes? Expand It’s west of the 12z gefs. Slightly better ccb into N VA. Also...often with a capture the slp elongates with a double barrel or inverted trough type feature towards the coast. The lowest pressure might be to the east but the Max to the west is typically the one that matters. The mean can be misleading. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:45 PM, psuhoffman said: It’s west of the 12z gefs. Slightly better ccb into N VA. Also...often with a capture the slp elongates with a double barrel or inverted trough type feature towards the coast. The lowest pressure might be to the east but the Max to the west is typically the one that matters. The mean can be misleading. Expand Roger. Things are really tightening up as you said they would. Here we go. It’s time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:45 PM, psuhoffman said: It’s west of the 12z gefs. Slightly better ccb into N VA. Also...often with a capture the slp elongates with a double barrel or inverted trough type feature towards the coast. The lowest pressure might be to the east but the Max to the west is typically the one that matters. The mean can be misleading. Expand That’s a very good point and why you get the L dancing around to the southwest after being offshore. Euro and GGEM did that today. Basic baroclinicity argues the low will be close to the coastline. Unlike December we have a respectable airmass ahead of this so the low shouldn’t ride up the Bay. Coastal front should be on the coast... P.S. you saw this window coming from 10+ days so big kudos on the pattern recognition 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I don’t know why Bel Air would be the jackpot for phase 1, but a general 3-6” seems like the right call to me. I think potential for more in north-central VA. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 9:26 PM, losetoa6 said: Icon is a juicy beast. 2.5 inch qpf More negativily tilted trough it appears to me Expand Kudos to you as well as psu. I remember you posted 8 days ago when the Thursday deal failed. You saw what looked to me like a cutter into a block. Little blue WAA showing up but you saw the potential. Hats off to you sir. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 10:02 PM, Deer Whisperer said: Check out that qpf in Central MD Expand I may need to go down to my brothers in ellicott city for this one. Seems the western suburbs get both smoked with qpf and hold onto temps. Whoever is JUST west of the mix line and remains all snow will jack 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 9:51 PM, stormtracker said: Surprised nobody posted the RGEM. Looks pretty good. Expand I would tap that shit. 3 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Question for the seasoned folks from a total amateur. I’m trying to understand the warming depicted at “halftime.” I get (Or maybe I am totally off) that as the coastal gets going SE winds take over until it gets cranking and then shift more NE, but why would that warm the surface so far inland?I get maybe the mid levels but to warm all layers to get plain rain to 95 I am not understanding in a scenario like this with a L that far away. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 11:03 PM, jayyy said: I may need to go down to my brothers in ellicott city for this one. Seems the western suburbs get both smoked with qpf and hold onto temps. Whoever is JUST west of the mix line and remains all snow will jack Expand Come on down! Not sure I'll be far west and north enough to stay west of the mix line, but I sure hope I jackpot with the biggest qpf and get cold smoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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