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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


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@Cashtown_Coop I am pretty sure State College will be well northwest of any bullseye.  You are in the game...but I am even SLIGHTLY nervous about a suppressed outcome here.  As usual, the GFS is adding more noise then it is helping.  We would probably have a more accurate perception of what this storm is likely to do if the GFS simply didn't exist at all.  

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  On 1/28/2021 at 9:59 PM, MN Transplant said:

GFS torches again overnight Sun into Monday.  38 at the surface at DCA.

we are going to have some takers for the 93 hour panel, though.  

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Kinda similar to the Feb 2014 storm in that regard.  There was a really awful lull waiting for the upper level energy to catch up and spark the deform banding.  

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  On 1/28/2021 at 10:27 PM, JakkelWx said:

Seems to be heading towards a little less tucked in, kinda like the 12z EPS today. It's not really that far to the E, members jump around a lot from frame to frame. it's a smidge further west but more consolidated.

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It will likely adjust to the euro more tucked solution thankfully 

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  On 1/28/2021 at 10:25 PM, BristowWx said:

Seems fairly far off shore.  Yes?

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It’s west of the 12z gefs. Slightly better ccb into N VA. Also...often with a capture the slp elongates with a double barrel or inverted trough type feature towards the coast. The lowest pressure might be to the east but the Max to the west is typically the one that matters. The mean can be misleading. 

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  On 1/28/2021 at 10:45 PM, psuhoffman said:

It’s west of the 12z gefs. Slightly better ccb into N VA. Also...often with a capture the slp elongates with a double barrel or inverted trough type feature towards the coast. The lowest pressure might be to the east but the Max to the west is typically the one that matters. The mean can be misleading. 

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Roger.  Things are really tightening up as you said they would.  Here we go.  It’s time.  

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  On 1/28/2021 at 10:45 PM, psuhoffman said:

It’s west of the 12z gefs. Slightly better ccb into N VA. Also...often with a capture the slp elongates with a double barrel or inverted trough type feature towards the coast. The lowest pressure might be to the east but the Max to the west is typically the one that matters. The mean can be misleading. 

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That’s a very good point and why you get the L dancing around to the southwest after being offshore. Euro and GGEM did that today. 
 

Basic baroclinicity argues the low will be close to the coastline. Unlike December we have a respectable airmass ahead of this so the low shouldn’t ride up the Bay. Coastal front should be on the coast...

 

P.S. you saw this window coming from 10+ days so big kudos on the pattern recognition 

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  On 1/28/2021 at 9:26 PM, losetoa6 said:

Icon is a juicy beast. 2.5 inch qpf 

More negativily tilted trough it appears to me 

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Kudos to you as well as psu.  I remember you posted 8 days ago when the Thursday deal failed. You saw what looked to me like a cutter into a block. Little blue WAA showing up but you saw the potential.  Hats off to you sir.  

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Question for the seasoned folks from a total amateur. I’m trying to understand the warming depicted at “halftime.” I get (Or maybe I am totally off) that as the coastal gets going SE winds take over until it gets cranking and then shift more NE, but why would that warm the surface so far inland?I get maybe the mid levels but to warm all layers to get plain rain to 95 I am not understanding in a scenario like this with a L that far away. Thanks. 

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  On 1/28/2021 at 11:03 PM, jayyy said:

I may need to go down to my brothers in ellicott city for this one. Seems the western suburbs get both smoked with qpf and hold onto temps. Whoever is JUST west of the mix line and remains all snow will jack 

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Come on down! Not sure I'll be far west and north enough to stay west of the mix line, but I sure hope I jackpot with the biggest qpf and get cold smoked!

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