Buffalo Transplant Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 8:12 PM, nw baltimore wx said: Yeah, you overestimate us. Expand Haha - I don't overestimate you but the actual residents that make it hard to make it manageable! Buffalo guy here knows what is and isn't manageable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 8:11 PM, Imgoinhungry said: Will glady take it, but totals seem light. Are we worried that the low will move further east off the coast in future runs? Seemed like a pretty significant move from prior runs. Expand I don't think east is a real concern for us. There haven't been a lot of model runs showing the coastal forming too far east. My concern is something like last night's Euro or this mornings ICON where the coastal doesn't get its act together in time for us which is typically how we fail in a Miller B. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 7:55 PM, losetoa6 said: Definitely 20s for Feb 10,2010 . I actually didnt mind the 12z colder Euro solution . And being late January a steady snow will accumulate anytime of day and not to mention coming off 3 cold days prior . Surface is primed for stickage baby !! Expand Which one that season was it that lasted over 30 hours to near 40 but was never heavy but steady light to moderate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 8:08 PM, yoda said: LWX AFD should be a fun read IMO... and no, no watches till tomorrow's afternoon package most likely Expand The old 3:30pm update. Back in the day before the Internet took off, you'd run home from the bus stop and flip on the Local on the 8s and anxiously wait for the watch to pop up on the crawl. 18 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 8:15 PM, North Balti Zen said: Down this way, 10 flakes over any period of time will cause road issues. Expand fixed 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 8:21 PM, Eskimo Joe said: The old 3:30pm update. Back in the day before the Internet took off, you'd run home from the bus stop and flip on the Local on the 8s and anxiously wait for the watch to pop up on the crawl. Expand Omg that’s so true. Unfortunately I remember the March 2001 one because the hoisted that pretty early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 8:21 PM, Eskimo Joe said: The old 3:30pm update. Back in the day before the Internet took off, you'd run home from the bus stop and flip on the Local on the 8s and anxiously wait for the watch to pop up on the crawl. Expand Further back in the day (starting in late 1970s) was A.M. Weather. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/A.M._Weather 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 NAM at 60 weaker and further South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 It's NAM time ladies and gents! 18z shows WAA precip creeping up into central VA/ the southwest reaches of metro DC by 12z sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 NAM South, with Moderate to heavy snow breaking out in VA at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 lol the NAM is at least 50 miles S with the primary and 2 mb weaker over KY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 If the NAM shows more confluence, which presently it might be going towards, do we consider it or just view it as the NAM at range ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 nam would have been supressed if it had run out to 144 hours. Confluence is worse than the euro. DC would have jackpotted this run. @psuhoffman fringed. Seem about right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 8:40 PM, SnowLover22 said: nam would have been supressed if it had run out to 144 hours. Confluence is worse than the euro. DC would have jackpotted this run. @psuhoffman fringed. Seem about right? Expand Nam has the look of a big hit incoming. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Looks like we were about to get NAM'd. Looks like a more solid precip shield too. Pretty good match to the Euro 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I KNOW - It’s the Nam at 84hrs, but it looked pretty damn good to these weenie eyes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Key piece N of Lake Ontario is trending stronger and diving S if not.slightly W of South pressing on the confluence and moving things S. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 8:44 PM, stormtracker said: Looks like we were about to get NAM'd. Looks like a more solid precip shield too. Pretty good match to the Euro Expand Like to see the 850 and surface pressure map at 84 but it looks good and looks like we have a full transfer to off the outer banks by 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Based on the 84 HR NAM at z500 the confluence is about to push the low due NE instead of tucking it in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I like seeing that L south of hatteras. Just crawl due N baby. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 8:46 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Key piece N of Lake Ontario is trending stronger and diving S if not.slightly W of South pressing on the confluence and moving things S. Expand To me that could usher in a path for it to transfer and keep scooting east. I don’t understand it fully but I want whatever will tug it back and stall it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 FWIW NAM 84 Hours 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 8:48 PM, EastCoast NPZ said: I like seeing that L south of hatteras. Just crawl due N baby. Expand Or even NNW 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDSnowyWxTracker Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 8:47 PM, JakkelWx said: Based on the 84 HR NAM at z500 the confluence is about to push the low due NE instead of tucking it in. Expand Yeah that is what I am seeing too. Looks like a potential fringe some of the north and western crews. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Nam 12 looks pretty good through 84. Solid WAA with the primary running out of gas over KY. Looks like it would have been a healthy transfer to the coastal. 16 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 It's a great transfer location for DC. If more confluence means the Euro jackpot moves from SE PA to NOVA, then I am all for the confluence. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 8:51 PM, nj2va said: It's a great transfer location for DC. If more confluence means the Euro jackpot moves from SE PA to NOVA, then I am all for the confluence. Expand Wasn't the NAM one of the first models to sniff out that the mid Dec storm would be further NW, even at 84? Not saying that'll hold, but it can sniff stuff out pretty well 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 What happens when everything starts to stack up like that? The 850, 700, and 500 closed lows are coming into almost perfect alignment. Typical or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 8:53 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: What happens when everything starts to stack up like that? The 850, 700, and 500 closed lows are coming into almost perfect alignment. Typical or no? Expand Captures the low and then basically occludes I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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