SnowGolfBro Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: classic. Wooof. Damn. Woof. If that is the last run we focus on ensembles, then it went out with a bang 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: Damn. Woof. If that is the last run we focus on ensembles, then it went out with a bang I'd still consider the ensemble guidance until we're inside HR 60. Once you get inside that, the ENS just cluster. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, yoda said: They've had likely pops since last night for Sunday into Monday would think after these 12Z runs, LWX should be bumping up the threat from ENH to MOD soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Euro ENS mean...pretty tasty and allays some concerns about north trend... 10:1 The EPS bullseyes our area...so its a very good run...but it definitely backed off on intensity a bit so the top end potential came down some. But were still talking a 12"+ type storm possibly here in the max zone...but the crazy ridiculous 20" or even 30" idea is fading a bit. NOT saying that is unexpected and I definitely take what it is selling. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, MDSnowyWxTracker said: Yeah I was noticing that too. From trajectory of the WAA event kind of missing us a little and the coastal taking over, we miss some of the good stuff as it dryslots Same thing the GFS does to my area. Someone is gonna get screwed by the dryslot and transfer. I just hope it's south of our subforum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDSnowyWxTracker Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Nothing to sweat at the point. Heavier amounts to the east and west of us. Probably just an anomaly at this point. No, I agree at this point it is still seems like a bounce here or there not changing the actually trajectory or event for that matter. So keep watching. I am still happy with at least 10in of snow just envious of those getting 2feet. But yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 EPS mean The totals are muted some by 11/50 members by my count that are suppressed. I only count a few members that miss DC to the north with heavy snow. So this is a VERY good spot to be right now...but still...suppressed is the bigger threat then north. If we ignored the GFS completely that would probably be more apparent lol. And again...I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUPPRESSED...just saying if it somehow falls apart thats the way. This isn't cutting. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The EPS bullseyes our area...so its a very good run...but it definitely backed off on intensity a bit so the top end potential came down some. But were still talking a 12"+ type storm possibly here in the max zone...but the crazy ridiculous 20" or even 30" idea is fading a bit. NOT saying that is unexpected and I definitely take what it is selling. The control (and the mean to an extent) look strikingly similar to Feb 2006, even to the extent of the max snowfall area near NYC. How was that setup similar to this? It's been one of the top analogs for a little bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That is uncanny actually. Look at the surface maps not just the upper air maps. Crazy similar to the Euro. It was just a lot warmer ahead of that one and it was early December so all the early dec all caveats applied. I would have taken that storm with a colder thermal profile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: The control (and the mean to an extent) look strikingly similar to Feb 2006, even to the extent of the max snowfall area near NYC. How was that setup similar to this? It's been one of the top analogs for a little bit too. I almost made a post comparing this setup to that storm earlier today...there are some differences...its a lot colder to start..we wasted a lot of the waa precip at the front end because temps were like 36 degrees. There is also more of a lag between the upper levels and the surface because this is a miller b and that was a miller a so there will be more dry slot lull with this. That storm the deform got going right behind the waa with no lull. But the eventually coastal features look very similar and BTW models didn't pick up on that crazy deform with 2006 until inside 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, MDSnowyWxTracker said: No, I agree at this point it is still seems like a bounce here or there not changing the actually trajectory or event for that matter. So keep watching. I am still happy with at least 10in of snow just envious of those getting 2feet. But yet to be determined. Definitely a possibility that north and east gets more than us here in Frederick and Hagerstown if the coastal is a bit east but I doubt we would see the qpf distribution as depicted with more snow basically east west north and south of us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: The control (and the mean to an extent) look strikingly similar to Feb 2006, even to the extent of the max snowfall area near NYC. How was that setup similar to this? It's been one of the top analogs for a little bit too. Much warmer leading into that storm. Storm lasted around 18 hours. The 4-5 hour deform band made the storm a non-fail. It was crushing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Much warmer leading into that storm. Storm lasted around 18 hours. The 4-5 hour deform band made the storm a non-fail. It was crushing. Were you here in Manchester for that storm? Do you know what the total here was? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristia Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Definitely a possibility that north and east gets more than us here in Frederick and Hagerstown if the coastal is a bit east but I doubt we would see the qpf distribution as depicted with more snow basically east west north and south of us lol. That would be because I moved here from Baltimore County a few months back. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pitmd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Given the euro/cmc/ukmet depiction and this potentially being a long duration event, is the DC area likely to be shut down for several days? Trying to put together contingency plans for the kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Have a feeling a HoCo-MoCo deathband will be setting up shop in a few days time. I actually agree with PSU - there’s more potential for central and NE MD to jack than usual NW zones - going to depend on when the coastal gets going 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Were you here in Manchester for that storm? Do you know what the total here was? No, I still lived in Reisterstown then but I'm pretty sure it was in the 14-16 inch range. I measured16 but there other reports in Reisterstown of 18. Areas around Columbia to Ellicott City to Randallstown reported 20-22. Very high ratio enduring deform band. My 16 was down to 12 by early afternoon when sun came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 the Jan 2019 storm comes into mind because it went from a 2-4 inch storm 36 hours before the event and kept increasting amounts every run up until gametime and even then...no model had us getting a foot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, pitmd said: Given the euro/cmc/ukmet depiction and this potentially being a long duration event, is the DC area likely to be shut down for several days? Trying to put together contingency plans for the kids. nah...shutdown only happens when you have 2-3 inch an hour rates. This storm is going to give us 2- 3inch a day rates 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 It really should be looked at in 2 parts.... this is the WAA wave This is the coastal CCB 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ji said: the Jan 2019 storm comes into mind because it went from a 2-4 inch storm 36 hours before the event and kept increasting amounts every run up until gametime and even then...no model had us getting a foot lol Was that the Bob Chill storm? That's the last time we had anything good around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, MDSnowyWxTracker said: No, I agree at this point it is still seems like a bounce here or there not changing the actually trajectory or event for that matter. So keep watching. I am still happy with at least 10in of snow just envious of those getting 2feet. But yet to be determined. Don’t think anyone in this sub is getting 2 feet my dude. That’s not realistic unless this coastal truly gets captured and bombs out. Those 20”+ totals will come in NW of NYC - not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: Was that the Bob Chill storm? That's the last time we had anything good around here. yep. its the last storm he ever saw too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ji said: yep. its the last storm he ever saw too Unless he went out to Mammoth where they are closing in on 7' of snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Don’t think anyone in this sub is getting 2 feet my dude. That’s not realistic unless this coastal truly gets captured and bombs out. Those 20”+ totals will come in NW of NYC - not here. I'm not in total agreement. I think some one can get 18 plus. Remember were only 54-60 hours from snow entering the region but were still 84 hours out from when the coastal takes over. There are a lot of runs left to increase totals or lessen them a but as well. CCB snows can work magic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDSnowyWxTracker Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Don’t think anyone in this sub is getting 2 feet my dude. That’s not realistic unless this coastal truly gets captured and bombs out. Those 20”+ totals will come in NW of NYC - not here. No I agree there too but will say some of the runs were showing that tucked low close to the Delmarva stalling. That would of did it, likely for yours and PSU area. But that solution does not seem to be playing out at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, MDSnowyWxTracker said: No I agree there too but will say some of the runs were showing that tucked low close to the Delmarva stalling. That would of did it, likely for yours and PSU area. But that solution does not seem to be playing out at the moment. I'm not sure it's a matter of the low not tucking or stalling. It snows forever. It's just the intensity is lacking. Look at what PSU posted above. Granted, it is ensembles, but less than .5 qpf from a deform band? I know the ratio can be high with that, but 15-20 hours of a deform that drops that amount is sad and basically unheard of. Either the storm just lacks the qpf, or the models are underestimating and it will juice up come gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I'm not sure it's a matter of the low not tucking or stalling. It snows forever. It's just the intensity is lacking. Look at what PSU posted above. Granted, it is ensembles, but less than .5 qpf from a deform band? I know the ratio can be high with that, but 15-20 hours of a deform that drops that amount is sad and basically unheard of. Either the storm just lacks the qpf, or the models are underestimating and it will juice up come gametime. I think a lot of it depends on the ULL passing through and it's strength and intensity. PSU has mentioned the nuts ratios from a similar Miller B in Feb 9-10 2010, but I think that was cold smoke too with temps in the teens up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I'm not sure it's a matter of the low not tucking or stalling. It snows forever. It's just the intensity is lacking. Look at what PSU posted above. Granted, it is ensembles, but less than .5 qpf from a deform band? I know the ratio can be high with that, but 15-20 hours of a deform that drops that amount is sad and basically unheard of. Either the storm just lacks the qpf, or the models are underestimating and it will juice up come gametime. I would guess that 0.5qpf is more of a function of spatial averaging done to arrive at the ensemble mean, some members are going to have the band placement in different locations etc. There is no way the max water totals where the def band sets up will be that low. Although it is more relevant for CAMs (because warm-season convection is smaller scale and generally more spatially heterogeneous).. probability matched mean is a better tool in instances like this where the placement of discrete features comes into play. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 This storm would Juice up qpf totals as we get within 48 hours..... the totals seem really low for a storm that lasts sunday morning through mid day tuesday. Somebody between NYC and Norfolk will score big in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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