stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Anybody got the prettier wb maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 looks like at 144 it's just outside the 40/70 benchmark off the MA coast, that should be ideal for much of SE New England? But, moving fast at that point so their window of precip will be much shorter than ours down here. Down to 984 there - would imagine they'd get some serious wind up there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 We’ll see what EPS says, but this seems pretty locked in. These run to run differences are fairly minor. Details to nitpick for the next 48hrs are thermal profiles and total precip amounts. But we have the broad strokes. 3-6” WAA snow Sunday. Probably 3-6” in the CCB for points north of DC, maybe north of EZF. Wild card is the transition time from around 0z-12z Monday. Is that mixy or light snow or mostly nothing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Chance we see some Blizzard Warnings with this storm?? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Little less totals than 00z but it looks way less likely I'd get fringed due to temps with this run so honestly I prefer it this way. Especially when we're talking a difference of 2-3 inches in a storm with over a foot of now to give either way as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:32 PM, ryanconway63 said: Chance we see some Blizzard Warnings with this storm?? Expand I wouldn't bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:27 PM, Eskimo Joe said: The 500 and 850 low pass is textbook for a solid warning criteria snowfall for IAD, DCA, and BWI. Beautiful. Expand On 1/28/2021 at 6:25 PM, MN Transplant said: Hard to argue against this Expand I was watching the evolution of the 85H, 7H, and 5H lows and I was in awe in the synchronous movement and precise placement that is necessary for a regionwide storm of this caliber. The best was the 7H low maturation as it sunk under us then strengthened as it pivoted over Quantico into the Atlantic. 7H and 85H wind field suggests a deformation type axis along a thermal gradient placed between Baltimore to Philly with 40 miles on either side. You can see with the precip enhancement on the 6hr QPF panels between 21z Monday and 12z Tuesday. It was an absolute thing of beauty. The physical properties of the lift with the temps verbatim would be a dendrite fest for just about everyone Monday night as the CCB pivots and gracefully moves to the NE. It's a textbook case of mid-latitude cyclogenesis and occlusion. 8 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:31 PM, WxUSAF said: We’ll see what EPS says, but this seems pretty locked in. These run to run differences are fairly minor. Details to nitpick for the next 48hrs are thermal profiles and total precip amounts. But we have the broad strokes. 3-6” WAA snow Sunday. Probably 3-6” in the CCB for points north of DC, maybe north of EZF. Wild card is the transition time from around 0z-12z Monday. Is that mixy or light snow or mostly nothing? Expand CCB is 105-126hrs. Possibly starts a bit earlier in Northern spots. That's plenty of time for a BECS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Weird storm. Not sure I've ever experienced something like this. A coastal storm that last forever but never snows hard, or really even moderately for a long period of time. You would think the totals would be obscene from a deform that lasts so long. Is there a reason this has so little significant precipitation with it? Maybe it will juice up? Also pretty obvious that a very small area is likely to jackpot with 20+ and everyone else is probably looking at a general 8-14. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEblizzard88 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:37 PM, ForestHillbilly said: Sign me up. Expand Seriously me too! I am like 2 mi nw of you - would be awesome to see this pan out!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:38 PM, Deck Pic said: The dryslot isn't that long in duration and could be some precip falling during that time especially I-95.....It's like a "lull" from late Sunday evening to mid morning on Monday Expand And the best part is....no torch. We're hanging out around freezing so once the precip comes back in we're money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:37 PM, JakkelWx said: Expand Do you have a 2m wind speed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:38 PM, osfan24 said: Weird storm. Not sure I've ever experienced something like this. A coastal storm that last forever but never snows hard, or really even moderately for a long period of time. You would think the totals would be obscene from a deform that lasts so long. Is there a reason this has so little significant precipitation with it? Maybe it will juice up? Also pretty obvious that a very small area is likely to jackpot with 20+ and everyone else is probably looking at a general 8-14. Expand need to get 500/850 and surface to line up which it seems to be. wouldn't take snow maps as verbatim right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Guidance is converging 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:40 PM, Anyweather said: Do you have a 2m wind speed? Expand This is more important, moisture influx, gotta keep an eye on it. As a Philly residence this run was a dream, but will it hold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:41 PM, psuhoffman said: Guidance is converging Expand It honestly sucks that we'll probably not get a chance to see the 12z Canadian surface maps because it looked strikingly similar, probably would've painted a similar picture wrt snowfall totals. Once the mesos get in range things will get real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:38 PM, osfan24 said: Weird storm. Not sure I've ever experienced something like this. A coastal storm that last forever but never snows hard, or really even moderately for a long period of time. You would think the totals would be obscene from a deform that lasts so long. Is there a reason this has so little significant precipitation with it? Maybe it will juice up? Also pretty obvious that a very small area is likely to jackpot with 20+ and everyone else is probably looking at a general 8-14. Expand Areas within the deformation axis would undoubtedly get heavy snow as the resolution factors in the globals will not pick up such intricate banding structures. Considering the strength and placement of the 850 and 700mb lows, there would be a general enhancement to the north and northwest of the central low positions. Plenty of 850-700mb frontogen within the CCB as well. Efficient for piling up over time, even under light to moderate snowfall. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:18 PM, mappy said: didn't high risk mention that GFS just doesn't have the resolution for CAD like EURO does? Expand It has sufficient resolution; it just sucks at it. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:42 PM, MillvilleWx said: Areas within the deformation axis would undoubtedly get heavy snow as the resolution factors in the globals will not pick up such intricate banding structures. Considering the strength and placement of the 850 and 700mb lows, there would be a general enhancement to the north and northwest of the central low positions. Plenty of 850-700mb frontogen within the CCB as well. Efficient for piling up over time, even under light to moderate snowfall. Expand Without being too much of a weenie this sure looks like a storm with major potential. It's difficult for even the best models to pinpoint location and intensity of the CCB band. Whoever is lucky enough to jackpot is going to get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:46 PM, Deck Pic said: Using IAD as an example 1 am Sunday - Snow starts Mid to late evening Sunday - Tapers Late evening Sunday to Early morning Monday - Lull Early to mid morning Monday - Snow resumes Early to mid morning Tuesday - Tapers Round 1 - ~4" Lull - 1-2" Round 2 - ~6" Expand i remember an event with that kind of thing---i think it was early Dec 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:48 PM, Ji said: i remember an event with that kind of thing---i think it was early Dec 2003 Expand You mean this one? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:47 PM, jaydreb said: Expand Looks a bit more jucied up that previous runs. That's the trend I wanted to see. Just need to expand and pivot that bright orange area farther south for all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:51 PM, Eskimo Joe said: You mean this one? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03.html Expand yikes the surface maps are very similar no? i think Dulles got 9-10 inches from this but there was a day of non stop snizzle which was awesome http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03-SurfaceMaps.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 A very good run, still worried about the UKMET, but the Euro leaves a bit of wiggle room either side, so that is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I saw the Mapgirl ALEET on twitter and I. AM. HERE. FOR. IT. 5 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 EPS - lower heights ahead of the trough, trough is more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 6:24 PM, Ji said: sounds like we are going to have to endure a light to moderate eternal event.....based on the way winter has gone since our Jan 2019 storm..well take? Expand The snow under that slowly decaying deform band will be heavier then qpf panels would indicate. Usually get nice dendrites in that band. Fluffy stuff. Even if its only moderate it will "seem" heavier. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 What’s with the hole over Frederick? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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