clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1.2 QPF in 50 hours for Winchester. All snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 13 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Anybody got the prettier wb maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 looks like at 144 it's just outside the 40/70 benchmark off the MA coast, that should be ideal for much of SE New England? But, moving fast at that point so their window of precip will be much shorter than ours down here. Down to 984 there - would imagine they'd get some serious wind up there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 We’ll see what EPS says, but this seems pretty locked in. These run to run differences are fairly minor. Details to nitpick for the next 48hrs are thermal profiles and total precip amounts. But we have the broad strokes. 3-6” WAA snow Sunday. Probably 3-6” in the CCB for points north of DC, maybe north of EZF. Wild card is the transition time from around 0z-12z Monday. Is that mixy or light snow or mostly nothing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Chance we see some Blizzard Warnings with this storm?? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Little less totals than 00z but it looks way less likely I'd get fringed due to temps with this run so honestly I prefer it this way. Especially when we're talking a difference of 2-3 inches in a storm with over a foot of now to give either way as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: Chance we see some Blizzard Warnings with this storm?? I wouldn't bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The 500 and 850 low pass is textbook for a solid warning criteria snowfall for IAD, DCA, and BWI. Beautiful. 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Hard to argue against this I was watching the evolution of the 85H, 7H, and 5H lows and I was in awe in the synchronous movement and precise placement that is necessary for a regionwide storm of this caliber. The best was the 7H low maturation as it sunk under us then strengthened as it pivoted over Quantico into the Atlantic. 7H and 85H wind field suggests a deformation type axis along a thermal gradient placed between Baltimore to Philly with 40 miles on either side. You can see with the precip enhancement on the 6hr QPF panels between 21z Monday and 12z Tuesday. It was an absolute thing of beauty. The physical properties of the lift with the temps verbatim would be a dendrite fest for just about everyone Monday night as the CCB pivots and gracefully moves to the NE. It's a textbook case of mid-latitude cyclogenesis and occlusion. 8 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We’ll see what EPS says, but this seems pretty locked in. These run to run differences are fairly minor. Details to nitpick for the next 48hrs are thermal profiles and total precip amounts. But we have the broad strokes. 3-6” WAA snow Sunday. Probably 3-6” in the CCB for points north of DC, maybe north of EZF. Wild card is the transition time from around 0z-12z Monday. Is that mixy or light snow or mostly nothing? CCB is 105-126hrs. Possibly starts a bit earlier in Northern spots. That's plenty of time for a BECS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We’ll see what EPS says, but this seems pretty locked in. These run to run differences are fairly minor. Details to nitpick for the next 48hrs are thermal profiles and total precip amounts. But we have the broad strokes. 3-6” WAA snow Sunday. Probably 3-6” in the CCB for points north of DC, maybe north of EZF. Wild card is the transition time from around 0z-12z Monday. Is that mixy or light snow or mostly nothing? The dryslot isn't that long in duration and could be some precip falling during that time especially I-95.....It's like a "lull" from late Sunday evening to mid morning on Monday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Weird storm. Not sure I've ever experienced something like this. A coastal storm that last forever but never snows hard, or really even moderately for a long period of time. You would think the totals would be obscene from a deform that lasts so long. Is there a reason this has so little significant precipitation with it? Maybe it will juice up? Also pretty obvious that a very small area is likely to jackpot with 20+ and everyone else is probably looking at a general 8-14. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEblizzard88 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ForestHillbilly said: Sign me up. Seriously me too! I am like 2 mi nw of you - would be awesome to see this pan out!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: The dryslot isn't that long in duration and could be some precip falling during that time especially I-95.....It's like a "lull" from late Sunday evening to mid morning on Monday And the best part is....no torch. We're hanging out around freezing so once the precip comes back in we're money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: Do you have a 2m wind speed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: Weird storm. Not sure I've ever experienced something like this. A coastal storm that last forever but never snows hard, or really even moderately for a long period of time. You would think the totals would be obscene from a deform that lasts so long. Is there a reason this has so little significant precipitation with it? Maybe it will juice up? Also pretty obvious that a very small area is likely to jackpot with 20+ and everyone else is probably looking at a general 8-14. need to get 500/850 and surface to line up which it seems to be. wouldn't take snow maps as verbatim right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Guidance is converging 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Anyweather said: Do you have a 2m wind speed? This is more important, moisture influx, gotta keep an eye on it. As a Philly residence this run was a dream, but will it hold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Guidance is converging It honestly sucks that we'll probably not get a chance to see the 12z Canadian surface maps because it looked strikingly similar, probably would've painted a similar picture wrt snowfall totals. Once the mesos get in range things will get real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Weird storm. Not sure I've ever experienced something like this. A coastal storm that last forever but never snows hard, or really even moderately for a long period of time. You would think the totals would be obscene from a deform that lasts so long. Is there a reason this has so little significant precipitation with it? Maybe it will juice up? Also pretty obvious that a very small area is likely to jackpot with 20+ and everyone else is probably looking at a general 8-14. Areas within the deformation axis would undoubtedly get heavy snow as the resolution factors in the globals will not pick up such intricate banding structures. Considering the strength and placement of the 850 and 700mb lows, there would be a general enhancement to the north and northwest of the central low positions. Plenty of 850-700mb frontogen within the CCB as well. Efficient for piling up over time, even under light to moderate snowfall. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 23 minutes ago, mappy said: didn't high risk mention that GFS just doesn't have the resolution for CAD like EURO does? It has sufficient resolution; it just sucks at it. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Areas within the deformation axis would undoubtedly get heavy snow as the resolution factors in the globals will not pick up such intricate banding structures. Considering the strength and placement of the 850 and 700mb lows, there would be a general enhancement to the north and northwest of the central low positions. Plenty of 850-700mb frontogen within the CCB as well. Efficient for piling up over time, even under light to moderate snowfall. Without being too much of a weenie this sure looks like a storm with major potential. It's difficult for even the best models to pinpoint location and intensity of the CCB band. Whoever is lucky enough to jackpot is going to get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Using IAD as an example 1 am Sunday - Snow starts Mid to late evening Sunday - Tapers Late evening Sunday to Early morning Monday - Lull Early to mid morning Monday - Snow resumes Early to mid morning Tuesday - Tapers Round 1 - ~4" Lull - 1-2" Round 2 - ~6" 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Using IAD as an example 1 am Sunday - Snow starts Mid to late evening Sunday - Tapers Late evening Sunday to Early morning Monday - Lull Early to mid morning Monday - Snow resumes Early to mid morning Tuesday - Tapers Round 1 - ~4" Lull - 1-2" Round 2 - ~6" i remember an event with that kind of thing---i think it was early Dec 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ji said: i remember an event with that kind of thing---i think it was early Dec 2003 Yes...some similarities.... The euro biases toward long duration events...this will probably consolidate a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: i remember an event with that kind of thing---i think it was early Dec 2003 You mean this one? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Looks a bit more jucied up that previous runs. That's the trend I wanted to see. Just need to expand and pivot that bright orange area farther south for all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: You mean this one? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03.html yikes the surface maps are very similar no? i think Dulles got 9-10 inches from this but there was a day of non stop snizzle which was awesome http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03-SurfaceMaps.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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