MocoMike Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Can anyone show how the WAA piece looks on 6Z Euro ? Curious how much of that total shown above comes Sunday. I thought the thump looked more suppressed than 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Yeah that was a really good run. Lets hope the 'trend' continues. We are LONG overdue for some positive trends in our hood ! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerichohill Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 From NWS Sterling: Warm advection envelops the region Saturday night as the storm presently along the West Coast gathers Gulf Moisture and sends it our way. With cold air mass in place, precip likely begins as snow region-wide by late Saturday night. Temps stay a little milder with the clouds, with lows in the 20s. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A potent upper level low will move east along the Ohio Valley Sunday and Sunday night, prior to moving into the mid-Atlantic region Monday. As it reaches our CWA, the development and intensification of a coastal low is expected. Helping in feeding this rapid development will be additional upper level energy that will move inside a deepening trough of low pressure across the eastern third of the U.S. The deepening trough and energy that will be intensifying the coastal low will perhaps slow its forward eastward progress early next week. A cold wedge east of the Appalachians will set up the atmosphere in which a large part of our CWA should see, at least, some accumulating snowfall late Saturday night through Monday. The slow forward progress could allow for some places to see a continual snowfall or perhaps some constant bands of light snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, frd said: We are LONG overdue for some positive trends in our hood ! Not bad. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, MocoMike said: I thought the thump looked more suppressed than 0z The WAA is still ongoing at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Can someone post the qpf from the 6z euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, MocoMike said: I thought the thump looked more suppressed than 0z Thanks Mike. I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Can someone post the qpf from the 6z euro This. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Good morning! 6z NAM 32k and 12k looked pretty sweet at the 84hr mark. Just sayin... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 EPS is basically locked in. Has been for 36 hours it seems to me. GEFS and GEPS are clearly moving into agreement with it more and more each run. Now just comes down to whether the coastal ends up tucked more NW along the Delmarva coast or farther out east of OCMD. As far as the WAA precip, locations farther south in VA and southern MD probably get better precip out of that then folks farther north. But then of course they probably miss out on the coastal... 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, WVclimo said: Thanks Mike. I appreciate it. FYI, not sure that's the best image he posted. It was the OP, not ENS and the WAA snow was still ongoing. I'd add another 1" - 3" to what the graphic shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not bad. I’m not sure we could ask for a better look on the EPS if a weenie drew the map himself. Seems less and less outliers every run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: FYI, not sure that's the best image he posted. It was the OP, not ENS and the WAA snow was still ongoing. I'd add another 1" - 3" to what the graphic shows. Sounds good. Biggest concern out this way is that the precip with the WAA fades as the primary dies and then the coastal is too far east. So far, models haven't been hinting at that so good to see that nice moisture on Sunday continue on the ECMWF. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This. Thanks 5 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: I’m not sure we could ask for a better look on the EPS if a weenie drew the map himself. Seems less and less outliers every run. And again, 0z Euro is tucked just inside the bay at this time frame, making it the 3rd most western outcome 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Looks like the biggest cluster on the eps is in a pretty classic spot for us. I know you guys to the east are sweating the temps with a tucked solution. But that is how we get hammered with the ccb. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: That's sweet looking. You can see the coma head in the precip pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Deform band signature right through our region clear as day. Definitely Jan ‘16 vibes. 4 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, WVclimo said: Sounds good. Biggest concern out this way is that the precip with the WAA fades as the primary dies and then the coastal is too far east. So far, models haven't been hinting at that so good to see that nice moisture on Sunday continue on the ECMWF. Logically it would seem that a later transfer would imply a longer WAA. But I want both the WAA and the coastal. I want this as tucked as we can get it without changing our eastern friends to rain. Seems like a quicker transfer to draw in cold quicker and then a wobble back to the west is the ticket. I’m hoping for the total 2 day complete stall with the low sitting jus north of OC. Obliteration is my game 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looks remarkably similar to the 18z run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Looks like the biggest cluster on the eps is in a pretty classic spot for us. I know you guys to the east are sweating the temps with a tucked solution. But that is how we get hammered with the ccb. Preach 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Best part of the 6z is the WAA piece is approx. 0.4-0.6 before any coastal. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Any thoughts on why the Euro Op has been consistently west of the Euro Ensem the past several Runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Best part of the 6z is the WAA piece is approx. 0.4-0.6 before any coastal. So that's low end warning criteria from just the WAA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Is my hope of a stall and retrograde even possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: So that's low end warning criteria from just the WAA. This may be 1 frame to many but yeah. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Looks remarkably similar to the 18z run Yes, Very similar to 18z overall, and to be fair the 0z run was good too, just not as good over this way. I need to see the op with the coastal in a better spot now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 As expected also, the guidance is losing the 72hr long snow event looks. Pretty uniform timing now on the front and back end. Snow starts early to late morning Sunday west to east. WAA tapers off by 0z Monday. Then for 6-12 hours there’s light precip (euro and GGEM) or dry slot (GFS). Then by 12z Monday or so the coastal starts to crank, CCB develops, and hopefully we get powder bombed for another 12-18 hours, wrapping up around 6z Tuesday. Sounds awesome to me. 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: This may be 1 frame to many but yeah. That would be cold powder before gradually turning more wet. Cold temps out ahead and if anyone gets into a weenie band during WAA they could be in for a surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Deform band signature right through our region clear as day. Definitely Jan ‘16 vibes. Careful...this is a family-friendly discussion board! But seriously, that is a nice signature and a nice amount of QPF for the mean. The thermals seem a bit tough for DC east/south at least for a time (as always??), but the progression of the 06Z EPS sure looks great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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