Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm

[Interstate]

4 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

That looked like another GFS sized step towards the EURO IMO 

At this point neither is taking a step towards each other. It is more like they are meeting in the middle. 

[CAPE]

The warming is legit on the GFS and Euro for the coastal plain. Gotta hug a CMC like solution. Too bad its the worst model.

[yoda]

Just now, CAPE said:

The warming is legit on the GFS and Euro for the coastal plain. Gotta hug a CMC like solution. Too bad its the worst model.

Uh no, the GFS is the worst scoring model

MIllvilleWx also posted above that the WPC was discounting the GFS/GEFS and going with a CMC/UKIE/EURO blend this morning

[BristowWx]

Just now, yoda said:

Uh no, the GFS is the worst scoring model

CMC is like 3rd best right with UK and EURO at 1 and 2?

[CAPE]

Just now, yoda said:

Uh no, the GFS is the worst scoring model

Ok I feel better now.

GFS has done well with our miss to the south. Euro had weak sauce for many runs down there before it caved. Not sure about the CMC.

[MillvilleWx]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Uh no, the GFS is the worst scoring model

MIllvilleWx also posted above that the WPC was discounting the GFS/GEFS and going with a CMC/UKIE/EURO blend this morning

 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Ok I feel better now.

GFS has done well with our miss to the south. Euro had weak sauce for many runs down there before it caved. Not sure about the CMC.

WPC weights their progs for forecasts based on the short term and utilizes so much incoming data to base what their preferences are for a time period. My buddy works at WPC and said it's a lot to take in, but it's like riding a bike once you do it so many times. They are not in the GFS camp at this time due to progressive bias and currently not in sync with what's currently occurring in the CONUS. It can certainly shift in the short term and has happened on occasion. For this system in NC, the GFS handled it much better and the other models played catchup. In fact, EPS was actually signaling the deterministic was out to lunch prior to the cave, so for whatever reason, the Euro just couldn't get a firm handle until close in. Right now, Euro is doing a better job at handling the AR off the PAC with favorable 5H positioning and other synoptic features. We'll see what happens with a new data ingest at 12z as this will bring us inside 72 hrs, a period when some will need to start addressing watches for the Midwest. 

[howrdcounty snow]

7 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I'm getting a bad feeling about this.  

gfs-euro 5 days out fantasy

gfs -euro 48 hrs out reality

basis 62 years of following  the weather

[MillvilleWx]

There is considerable divergence in the 5H pattern post 00z Sun on the GFS compared to other globals and even the NAM. The GFS remains in fairly decent envelope of 5H progression with a strong, negatively tilted trough centered over E KS and W MO by the Saturday night time frame. For whatever reason, the GFS then opens the wave and the energy becomes diffuse for a 24-36 hr period before reorganizing as it pivots southeastward after reaching a latitude of southern MI. No other global has this, even it's GFSv16 brother. The rest of guidance is in close proxy to each other in terms of 5H low positioning, surface reflection, and overall handling of the precip field as it exits east of the Mississippi. 

The GFS could very well score a coup or the other guidance can start to gradually move towards a GFS-like scenario. Another option is a meet in the middle marker with regards to the 5H progression and we see another plethora of options in terms of potential outcomes downstream. This is a pretty delicate setup for the east coast where small ticks in strength or low placements will mean the difference between a small event or significant outcome. Don't be surprised if we see 20 different variations of an outcome by Sunday with a blend of a few that handle the UL pattern the best. 

[CAPE]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

 

WPC weights their progs for forecasts based on the short term and utilizes so much incoming data to base what their preferences are for a time period. My buddy works at WPC and said it's a lot to take in, but it's like riding a bike once you do it so many times. They are not in the GFS camp at this time due to progressive bias and currently not in sync with what's currently occurring in the CONUS. It can certainly shift in the short term and has happened on occasion. For this system in NC, the GFS handled it much better and the other models played catchup. In fact, EPS was actually signaling the deterministic was out to lunch prior to the cave, so for whatever reason, the Euro just couldn't get a firm handle until close in. Right now, Euro is doing a better job at handling the AR off the PAC with favorable 5H positioning and other synoptic features. We'll see what happens with a new data ingest at 12z as this will bring us inside 72 hrs, a period when some will need to start addressing watches for the Midwest. 

Thanks, good info.

This is a complex situation (as usual). If the NA vortex was holding the confluence in place longer my area might do ok with a west track/transfer deal, but unfortunately things are loosening up top with the block, that vortex is exiting, and this system is a slow evolving one. Hopefully the front end can deliver 2-4", but beyond that, not liking what I see on guidance.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, CAPE said:

Thanks, good info.

This is a complex situation (as usual). If the NA vortex was holding the confluence in place longer my area might do ok with a west track/transfer deal, but unfortunately things are loosening up top with the block, that vortex is exiting, and this system is a slow evolving one. Hopefully the front end can deliver 2-4", but beyond that, not liking what I see on guidance.

Your area is always tricky due to your proxy and unfavorable endeavor with a screaming SE wind upstairs. You know your climo though and are reasonable with expectations. I would think Advisory level snowfall is well within cards and maybe even near low end warning. The coastal, if it materializes will be a bugaboo for a while as you roast in the boundary layer. You would need an arctic feed to keep you all frozen. You can catch the backside pivot as the 7H and 85H low cut underneath and cold air crashes back in. Tough call, but hopefully you can get some white for your hood. I love seeing pictures of your home with snow 

[frd]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hopefully the front end can deliver 2-4", but beyond that, not liking what I see on guidance

Even up my way Mount Holly forecast kind of blah. Lots of mentions of rain and it figures we lost the seasonal suppression trend right when we needed it. Nothing really special about this event for the low lands. I really dont care about a few inches of snow.  Was hoping for a more offshore solution that helps us area versus the far Western areas. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Even up my way Mount Holly forecast kind of blah. Lots of mentions of rain and it figures we lost the seasonal suppression trend right when we needed it. Nothing really special about this event for the low lands. I really dont care about a few inches of snow.  Was hoping for a more offshore solution that helps us area versus the far Western areas. 

A few inches of snow is fine with me. I am not picky given how awful it has been the last couple years. But what is being advertised now would result in whatever falls immediately going to slop and melting, then maybe some light snow showers on the backend. Up your way you have a decent chance to escape the boundary layer torch. Me? I hug the Canadian lol.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A few inches of snow is fine with me. I am not picky given how awful it has been the last couple years. But what is being advertised now would result in whatever falls immediately going to slop and melting, then maybe some light snow showers on the backend. Up your way you have a decent chance to escape the boundary layer torch. Me? I hug the Canadian lol.

Good luck down there. Maybe eventually there will be another snow on snow event. As you mentioned, everything is so complicated when it comes to snow these days. 

[aldie 22]

I'd like to point out that the original thought on starting this thread was supposed to be after 12z today....

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'd like to point out that the original thought on starting this thread was supposed to be after 12z today....

I asked Randy if we could open it sooner, the thread yesterday was a disaster and it was becoming annoying to read. you're welcome. 

[H2O]

45 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Your area is always tricky due to your proxy and unfavorable endeavor with a screaming SE wind upstairs. You know your climo though and are reasonable with expectations. I would think Advisory level snowfall is well within cards and maybe even near low end warning. The coastal, if it materializes will be a bugaboo for a while as you roast in the boundary layer. You would need an arctic feed to keep you all frozen. You can catch the backside pivot as the 7H and 85H low cut underneath and cold air crashes back in. Tough call, but hopefully you can get some white for your hood. I love seeing pictures of your home with snow 

question for you and any other fellow red tagger, please.  So now that the suppression issue seems to have magically gone poof like it does every time(why some worry is beyond me), whats to keep this POS storm from turning into something we dont want?  Which is a screw job.  What warning signs should we look for to 

1. Keep primary too long and into OH/PA/NY/MI?

2. Cause transfer to happen late and LP forms near the Azores instead of Duck, NC?

3. Delay NS vort where it kicks instead of hugs the coastal?

4. Upper energy goes derp and doesn't pass under?

[osfan24]

Need the primary to die sooner and it is game on. EPS looked pretty good. I liked seeing bigger totals on the Euro, though the concern would be how it shifted north into exactly the area Bernie was talking about. CMC was a real nice run last night. I just don't want a scenario where we end up with 8 inches and NYC is getting crushed. I liked the solutions that parked the low off VA beach and we got deformed for two days.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, H2O said:

question for you and any other fellow red tagger, please.  So now that the suppression issue seems to have magically gone poof like it does every time(why some worry is beyond me), whats to keep this POS storm from turning into something we dont want?  Which is a screw job.  What warning signs should we look for to 

1. Keep primary too long and into OH/PA/NY/MI?

2. Cause transfer to happen late and LP forms near the Azores instead of Duck, NC?

3. Delay NS vort where it kicks instead of hugs the coastal?

4. Upper energy goes derp and doesn't pass under?

1. A primary that holds its strength too long with a venture to the eastern OH/western PA area would favor a torch at the mid-levels and likely have the ULL pass too far to the north leaving the area blank with any round 2 potential.

2. A late transfer where 40N becomes a more prime location compared to our sub-forum. This is probably the biggest worry of them all.

3. I wouldn't worry about a kick in this situation given the positioning of the NS vort

4. A weak UL or late developing ULL will shift focus to the NE with the surface low redevelopment too weak and far north to matter. 

In order of "worry" for the area, I'd favor the order of: 2, then 1, then 4

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS...looks like it continues to trend toward EPS.

[H2O]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

1. A primary that holds its strength too long with a venture to the eastern OH/western PA area would favor a torch at the mid-levels and likely have the ULL pass too far to the north leaving the area blank with any round 2 potential.

2. A late transfer where 40N becomes a more prime location compared to our sub-forum. This is probably the biggest worry of them all.

3. I wouldn't worry about a kick in this situation given the positioning of the NS vort

4. A weak UL or late developing ULL will shift focus to the NE with the surface low redevelopment too weak and far north to matter. 

In order of "worry" for the area, I'd favor the order of: 2, then 1, then 4

Thanks.  It now seems that everything has shifted from looks good a couple days ago to this needs to happen so this can happen and if they don't merge at the exactly the right place at the right time and be in a good mood while doing it then the whole storm turns into actual #2.  The kind you step in.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, H2O said:

Thanks.  It now seems that everything has shifted from looks good a couple days ago to this needs to happen so this can happen and if they don't merge at the exactly the right place at the right time and be in a good mood while doing it then the whole storm turns into actual #2.  The kind you step in.

Miller B life is not the life for the Mid Atlantic unfortunately.  Even the 2nd bomb in 2010 was an inside 72 hour move to something remotely favorable. Then as the rest of that season went, it turned into a doozy for us. That's rare. That's also why I'm hesitant but cautiously optimistic for the coastal, but more rooting for the WAA piece so people can cash before any potential flop. 

[WxUSAF]

@MillvilleWx totally agree on the WAA providing a widespread low-end warning deal with the coastal being the wildcard. Big dogs always mix, so I’ll accept my sleet if and when it comes Monday in advance of hopefully puking dendrites in the CCB. 
 

I liked seeing the euro come into agreement with the other guidance on start time Sunday. Looks like mid-late morning. I’m stoked for a couple @Jebman Jebwalks in daylight with mod snow.

[Hurricanegiants]

For reference today/tonight/and insomnia:

GFS (wicked step)
0z: 10:30pm
6z: 4:30am
12z: 10:30am
18z: 4:30pm

NAM (weenie for $500)
0z: 8:35pm
6z: 2:35am
12z: 8:35am
18z: 2:35pm

CMC (Hail Mary)
0z: 12:00am
12z : 12:00pm

UKMET (gap fill)
0z: 12:30am
12z: 12:30pm

Dr. No (no formal acronym needed)
0z: 1:30am
12z: 1:30pm

[MillvilleWx]

One of the trends I like seeing is the increased favorability of the front end working out to at least advisory criteria with warning criteria not too far off for areas north of I-70 and west of US15. Here's a trend of the Prob 24 Snow >3" on the GEFS from 06z Sun to 06z Mon

[Buddy1987]

I saw H20 ask some pointed questions regarding what could go wrong but IMO that’s more so to my north and east. Almost every major model has us easily 6+” down this way. I actually had same question with what could alter things down this way, as the secondary is going to form too far to my north and east. Do I want the primary to get close or do I want it to stay in IL or IN before the dry slot works in to maximize snow potential here? 

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@MillvilleWx totally agree on the WAA providing a widespread low-end warning deal with the coastal being the wildcard. Big dogs always mix, so I’ll accept my sleet if and when it comes Monday in advance of hopefully puking dendrites in the CCB. 
 

I liked seeing the euro come into agreement with the other guidance on start time Sunday. Looks like mid-late morning. I’m stoked for a couple @Jebman Jebwalks in daylight with mod snow.

For sure. I'm always a take the easy road if possible for these setups. Experienced too many failures while my friends in PA/NJ/NY/MA talk about how awesome the storm was and posting on SM. Plus, whatever falls will stick instantly on Sunday. Plenty cold

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

I saw H20 ask some pointed questions regarding what could go wrong but IMO that’s more so to my north and east. Almost every major model has us easily 6+” down this way. I actually had same question with what could alter things down this way, as the secondary is going to form to far to my north and east. Do I want the primary to get close or do I want it to stay in IL or IN before the dry slot works in to maximize snow potential here? 

You should enjoy the WAA stuff no question. You and @Disc will be getting pounded by aggregates most likely Saturday night into early Sunday. You want the primary to stay near IN. That's the sweet spot

[Buddy1987]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

You should enjoy the WAA stuff no question. You and @Disc will be getting pounded by aggregates most likely Saturday night into early Sunday. You want the primary to stay near IN. That's the sweet spot

Awesome! Really appreciate you taking the time to always answer questions here. 

[JakkelWx]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Thanks, good info.

This is a complex situation (as usual). If the NA vortex was holding the confluence in place longer my area might do ok with a west track/transfer deal, but unfortunately things are loosening up top with the block, that vortex is exiting, and this system is a slow evolving one. Hopefully the front end can deliver 2-4", but beyond that, not liking what I see on guidance.

But CAD trends better in time.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro looks good to me.  3-6 inches for the WAA is what I’m pumped for.  Anything after that is gravy.