MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: @MillvilleWx the h5 progression is beautiful. I have a feeling when the EPS comes out this op was a northern solution in the envelope. I could see that. It was legit splitting hairs on who gets bombed on that run. I was digesting the 7H low progression and it was legit 25 miles north from the sweet spot. I'm just glad the Euro hung on to nice transfer and vort passage compared to the GFS which has been sloppy. I know people in here are worried about things trending too far north, and it's justified, BUT if you follow weather around here, these Miller B/Hybrid setups are NEVER easy. You have to walk the tight rope. The cool part is, when they happen, they are magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: THAT was one hell of a run for much of the sub-forum. Despite the bit of mixing during part of the coastal for the cities, everyone is puking dendrites at some point during the height of the coastal. US15 to I81 from Winchester to Harrisburg could be the deformation zone on this run verbatim. The whole area gets walloped in all. 1'+ for a ton of the sub. Even with the slightly farther north track of the surface low into southern Ohio, the goods are still delivered. I liked seeing a consistent hold of the ULL as it crosses into the Ohio Valley as well, strengthening again as it moves east. The 7H low cuts right over the Potomac. Just a slightly further south depiction, and it's blockbuster for basically everyone. A great run But I personally lost 12” of digital snow are you going to come here and console me, wipe my tears, help me throw digital punches and sue the Europeans? Fight this out in banter? PBP of euro at 1 am ET. My next briefing is in 6 hours. Great having you on here bro. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: But I personally lost 12” of digital snow are you going to come here and console me, wipe my tears, help me throw digital punches and sue the Europeans? Fight this out in banter? PBP of euro at 1 am ET. My next briefing is in 6 hours. You must live in NoVA. The king of jackpot depictions 100+ hours out that never pan out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: But I personally lost 12” of digital snow are you going to come here and console me, wipe my tears, help me throw digital punches and sue the Europeans? Fight this out in banter? PBP of euro at 1 am ET. My next briefing is in 6 hours. Pass the coffee 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Surface temps look a bit too warm on this run. Would imply a very wet snow which is unusual for up this way during coastals. What else is new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, Amped said: And the scary part is I think the QPF it's showing over PA is too light given the firehose. Should be a massive area of 30+ from Garret county to Binghamton . The models never show the mountain effects properly at this range - maybe not enough resolution? Any of the recent runs, with this track, are easily 20"+ in Garrett, probably more in Tucker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: You must live in NoVA. The king of jackpot depictions 100+ hours out that never pan out Ashburn. I went from 25 to 13. Suing PA for taking my digital snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Ashburn. I went from 25 to 13. Suing PA for taking my digital snow. Loudoun always does well compared to 90% of the sub - but you knew that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 [mention=9895]MillvilleWx[/mention] the h5 progression is beautiful. I have a feeling when the EPS comes out this op was a northern solution in the envelope. I didn't expect the euro to show the north shift after seeing this which is what I looked at first. March 2001 ftl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Ashburn. I went from 25 to 13. Suing PA for taking my digital snow. I went 15 to 8... wanna start a class action? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 At 6 hours I don’t see any major changes on the EPS 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 What else is new We got 72 hours to go from nina to nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Ashburn. I went from 25 to 13. Suing PA for taking my digital snow. Still so early. Jackpot could easily come back to VA. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Huge snowstorm wraps up on Tuesday then Friday we hit 60. Shades of 96. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: I didn't expect the euro to show the north shift after seeing this which is what I looked at first. March 2001 ftl Yea the h5 pass was great but sometimes the surface doesn’t line up perfectly. The primary held on a bit too long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Yea the h5 pass was great but sometimes the surface doesn’t line up perfectly. The primary held on a bit too long. Seems reason enough for me to question the surface depiction . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 My bar is 4". That simple. We get 6" while NYC gets 20"? Well that sucks, but I just want WSW criteria snow. Any more is gravy and sauce 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 At 72 the eps is SLIGHTLY south in MO with the surface low. But it’s minor. No major differences over 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Oye lots of late night Doomers. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, DCAlexandria said: Seems reason enough for me to question the surface depiction . It being a weather model 72+ hours out should naturally give any of us reason to question it. We’ll see once the EPS run wraps up if this OP was a northern outlier or not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The ens mean looks a lot like the OP to me...though the trough goes negative earlier and little more sharply...also it doesn't have that annoying C PA jack... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Still so early. Jackpot could easily come back to VA . According to my completely unqualified opinion, 95% of storms trend north in the last 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The ens mean looks a lot like the OP to me...though the trough goes negative earlier and little more sharply...also it doesn't have that annoying C PA jack...Trough going negative early is huge for the cities. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 definitely warmer at 102 near DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 EPS looks much warmer for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 We got 2 dramas to fight tomorrow. The euro and the Miller b screw jobAnd none of the other models except cmc really have this potential of the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Eps surface track both primary and coastal is identical. But the whole system is several mb more amplified and that does lead to a warmer profile. Stronger primary even if it’s not further north will hurt some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ji said: We got 2 dramas to fight tomorrow. The euro and the Miller b screw job And none of the other models except cmc really have this potential of the euro Curious to see what NAM has to say tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: 6 to 8 as a mean is still pretty nice along the i95 corridor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts